Beware of the Ides of March! Szczur’s Future?
The Ides of March are upon us. You might remember March 15th, according to history, is the day Julius Caesar was assassinated in 44 AD. Et Tu Brute? Matt Szczur‘s time on the North side might also be coming to an end. Why? You say. This of course is all speculation, but there are signs pointing toward a trade. Let’s first look at the positives of Matt Szczur.
Career Cub
Reserve outfielder Matt Szczur was taken in the 5th round of the 2010 draft by the Cubs. Matt is not a bad player by any measure. On the contrary, he is a good MLB player. Wins Above Replacement (WAR) uses the value of zero to define an average player. Having a career -0.5 WAR and a 2016 value of 0.4 isn’t exactly All Star level, but it does mean Szczur has value. He is a right handed hitter with above average speed, who can play all three outfield positions. He does rate below average in power, but it appears he has beefed up and changed his swing plane a little this Spring.
Szczur posted a .267 batting average in 2016 as a pinch hitter, going 12 for 45. His overall average was .259 in 200 plate appearances. This Spring, in just 10 games, his slash line is .375/.400/.667 with 2 home runs and 4 rbi. The problem is that the Cubs are loaded in the outfield. Szczur has also exhausted his minor league options. This means the Cubs must keep him on the 25 man roster. In order for him to stay with the Cubs at the minor league level, he would have to pass through waivers. That is highly unlikely and why the speculation of trade is being discussed.
Cubs Other Options
Given the value we just discussed, can the Cubs afford to even let an average player like that go? Three “new” players expect to roam the outfield in 2017 for the Cubs. Veteran Jon Jay expects to platoon in center field and carries a career 12 WAR over seven seasons. OK, Kyle Schwarber isn’t new, but considering he got hurt in game 3 of 2016, makes him new. The third is also not really new. The emergence of first round pick Albert Almora has now made Szczur the 5th outfielder. We are obviously aware of Jason Heyward‘s offensive struggles, but let’s leave that for another conversation.
But wait, there is more. With Javier Baez also really coming on, that means Ben Zobrist might see more time in the outfield. The possibility exists that Javy plays 3rd base and the MVP Kris Bryant wanders out to left field. The point is, it is getting harder and harder for Szczur to find some playing time on this current roster. The Cubs stable of outfielders is growing with talent.
Replacements and Prospects
Other reasons why the Cubs could use Szczur’s value as trade equity rather than on the field are named Jeimer Candelario and Tommy La Stalla. Matt’s current role as pinch hitter and 12th position player can easily be filled by either of these two infielders. Candelario being a switch hitter gives the big club a little bit more flexibility as does La Stella’s left handed bat. Currently the 25 man roster has 4 players that cover the second, short, and third. After Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Ben Zobrist, and Javier Baez there aren’t any other infielders.
Then there are the top rated prospects. Eloy Jimenez, the number one rated Cub prospect, seems to be progressing very fast and my be ready very soon. Ian Happ the number two prospect is listed as a second baseman, but has also seen time in the outfield. Both Jimenez and Happ seem very close, but neither are currently on the 40 man roster. Trading Szczur would open up at least one spot for one of these dynamic young players.
Realistic Trade Destinations
Like the Cubs many teams seem to be stacked in the outfield. But some teams are in need of a forth outfielder and the type of talent Matt brings to the park every day. Some of those teams might be the Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks, and maybe even the San Diego Padres. There could be more with an injury, something the Cubs seem to have covered. It is possible Szczur could get maybe 350-400 plate appearances with a new home. With that opportunity it is possible he can grow into an everyday player. Again, with the Cubs, he just doesn’t show the same potential as many guys already in the organization.
This isn’t a knock on former two sport athlete from Villinova. This is actually meant as a compliment. He is a good player and will likely be able to help another team. It is just unfortunate that he finds himself on a team loaded with talent. The best way he likely can help the Cubs is to be traded for pitching.
I want to remind you all this is purely speculation and it is very possible Matt is Cub for the entire 2017 season. However, I think the days of lending his bat to Anthony Rizzo and his underwear to Addison Russell seem to be over. Has anyone seen Brutus?
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