Cubs Trade Target Screams Matt Garza 2.0
Jul 14, 2013; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Matt Garza (22) sits in the dugout during the seventh inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports
Matt Garza was a quality pitcher for the Northside, an above .500 pitcher (21-18), a 3.45 ERA, and was able to take the ball for a team that had a pitching deficency while he was in Chicago were all positives. While he was a solid pitcher for Chicago, many Tampa Bay Rays insiders drew questions on the expectation that he was front line guy.
These questions, and the fact that he was in Chicago for just two and a half seasons provides credence to the thought that he wasn’t worth the slew of players he cost the Cubs. Further, there are some of those same questions surrounding a current Cubs trade target I urge Theo Epstein and Co. to stay away from the Atlanta Braves’ Shelby Miller.
Per sources, #Cubs doing background work on a dozen or so starting pitchers. #Braves believed to want young position players for Miller.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 20, 2015
Both Shelby Miller and Matt Garza are fiery competitors, which at times can get the best of him (Miller spitting on a ball then tossing it to fans). Both have had brilliant starts to their careers, they had a similar up and down first several years, and both command a huge return of players for their teams to consider trading them.
While there should be some concern on why the Atlanta Braves would trade a pitcher so young, with so many years of control left (three), ESPN’s Buster Onley weighed in on exactly that.
Since Miller’s name first emerged as a market option last week, the Dodgers and Giants each checked in to see how serious Atlanta is about moving the right-hander — and it would make a lot of sense for the Braves to move Miller now. The Braves are not going to contend for the NL East in 2016 or, in all likelihood, 2017, and Miller will be eligible for free agency after the 2018 season. He just turned 25 years old and will go through arbitration for the first time this winter, and his market value is very high, because he’s not going to cost a lot of money and he’s coming off a season in which he posted a 3.02 ERA for one of the worst teams in the majors.
Atlanta should at least find out what it can get in return for him, and really, it would be best to move him now.
This is the point in which the Cubs need to move forward with extreme caution. CBS Sports Jon Heyman is reporting that around 20 teams are or have been inquiring on the Braves pitcher, and with the attention the Braves are asking for a ton in return. With possibly more than half the league interested, there can easily be a bidding war which nets the Braves an even bigger return.
What is a ton? Miller was already involved in a 16 player blockbuster that sent Jason Heyward from Atlanta to the St Louis Cardinals. While Miller has one less yeat of control, his 3.02 ERA certainly didn’t reduce his value, even with his league leading 17 losses. It wouldn’t be outrageous for a six or so player deal for Shelby Miller at this point, and the Braves could lead with Jorge Soler and Javier Baez from the Cubs in discussions.
While the losses are cause for concern — flashes of Anthony Young and his 27 consecutive losses — those were more so losses of poor fortune and Miller could be a good third or fourth starter on the team that has an offense as high powered as the Cubs. His pre-arbitration salary is most attractive, and allows the Cubs flexibility to add another impact player or two. But there are some red flags with Miller, similar to Garza years before.
Miller’s trends have not been very kind to him. While being a highly thought of prospect in the Cardinals system, Miller was consistently inconsistent as he moved through the ranks. In 2009 he held a 6.00 ERA for the Quad City River Bandits, then a high 3 ERA in 2010, below 3 ERA in 2011 for multiple MiLB teams, then a near 5 ERA in 2012. He then continued this pattern within his first three seasons in the Majors.
While Miller has seemed to answer critics in 2015, but looking deeper into his campaign opens questions on how good he really was. Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors mentions.
One factor that clubs may consider, though, is that Miller’s overall numbers are propped up by what was an unsustainable run of sub-2.00 ERA production through the season’s first two months. From June 1 through season’s end, Miller posted a quality (but less impressive) 3.77 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 across 138 1/3 innings. Miller’s strikeout rates and control numbers have fluctuated somewhat throughout his career, but low BABIP totals and seemingly good fortune in terms of homer-to-flyball rate have led to a large discrepancy between his 3.22 ERA and metrics such as xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.10). Miller’s BABIP has always been below the league average, though, as has his HR/FB, suggesting that some of the perceived fortune could be more skill-based in his case.
It would appear the Cardinals are looking to bank from Miller’s ridiculous start, which should raise red flags for any team seriously entering in trade discussions for him. Steve also mentions that Shelby’s HR figures are very favorable, I’d counter in saying he’s played in two of the hardest ballparks to hit HRs in. In fact, there were 113 total home runs (second least) hit in Turner Field in 2015, an average of 1.40 per game (NL avg was 1.95).
Could those long fly outs to left turn into Waveland shots in Chicago? Will it be worth finding that out if it costs the Cubs Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, and another highly thought of minor leaguer?
Let’s hope the Cubs do not pull a Matt Garza 2.0 with Shelby Miller, sending tons of players to Atlanta to find out. Let’s also hope the Cubs don’t become the first real notch on the Braves GM John Coppolella’s resume.
