Curious Stat Proves the Cubs Aren’t that Bad

We’ve all heard how bad this Chicago Cubs team is. We’ve seen the numbers on the pitching staff, how much the defense has fallen off, and how anyone not named Kris Bryant is struggling at the plate. The Cubs have attempted to rectify this with bringing up Jeimer Candelario, Eddie Butler, and Ian Happ. None of this has had much impact on the Cubs win/loss record.

With things not exactly turning out as expected, some have turned to trends. You know, like the for of the past five World Series winners have missed the playoffs.  There was also Joe Maddon’s claim of being tired. We fell into this as well, publishing articles spelling out these theories as well as trying some of our own.

While I’m certain those do play a part, there could be a simple mathematical factor we all overlook.

Kent Hunter, a part-time writer on this site, recently opined on the Facebook group, Elite Cubs Fans, a very interesting note on how fragile a baseball game’s outcome is.

When you hear a baseball player or coach mention how hard it is to win a Major League Baseball game, this is why. One play can turn a game, and if the ball rolls the wrong way, you lose. I equate what Kent pointed out as the old saying, you win 50 games and you lose 50 games, it’s what you do in the remaining 62 that determine your season.

These games that the ball rolled the wrong way is just part of those 50 you’ll lose. It’s part of the zero-sum aspect of the game.

All teams have stretches where they have a great 8-15 game run and a bad 8-15 game run. The good teams minimize the bad stretches and maximize those good stretches.

Think back to the 2016 Cubs. They began the season with an extraordinary 8-1 run (11-4 in their first 15). They were able to maximize this run, then add nine more wins in the first month. But from June 30th till July 9th they were 1-10. This bad stretch was end-capped by two separate three-game winning streaks. So a 7-10 stretch isn’t as alarming. Seeing that the Cubs were 8-6 in the remaining July games, a stretch of 15-16 looks similar to what we’ve seen thus far in 2017.

The Cubs are a game under .500, coming off a stretch where they’ve gone 2-7. Before the bad stretch, the Cubs won three consecutive against the Phillies. A 5-7 stretch isn’t great, but it’s manageable in a 162 game season. And without a real winning streak, I would argue without hesitation that their best baseball is ahead of them.

Comparing the Cubs July of 2016 and the Cubs May of 2017, they are rather similar. The Cubs were 15-16 in their 31 game stretch, which looks similar to their 14-16 run over the current 31 game stretch. A successful baseball season is all about maximizing the good breaks and minimizing the bad ones. I am willing to bet this Cubs team starts maximizes their breaks the rest of the way.

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