Potential Cubs Black Friday Deals
Everyone loves a sale! The Chicago Cubs are included in that as well. The 2017 free agent market is somewhat weak, which can certainly bode well for the top guys available, but the mid-level to lower level guys may need to accept deals under what they expected in order to find a long-term home. What weighs against a lot of these guys is the incredible free agent class of 2018, and the sense that teams will be setting themselves up to make splashes next year.
We know about the Cubs interest in guys like Alex Cobb and Brandon Morrow, and yes, the Cubs will likely get a discount of sorts due to their injury history. But here is a list of other guys that will help the Cubs, and come at a nice Black Friday sale price.
International Star
I bet you think I am talking about Shohei Otani, don’t you? Well, I am not, I am actually talking about former Atlanta Braves prospect, and the top 2016 international prospect, Kevin Maitan.
The Atlanta Braves were hit incredibly hard for breaking rules on international players and taking advantage of bonus money. The result of which was Maitan and a dozen of the Braves international prospects being released back into the international free agent pool.
As some fans are aware, the Cubs only have $300,000 in international bonus pool money to be paid out. If the Cubs are in on Otani, how could they also compete for Maitan’s services as well?
Well, MLB has announced that teams would be able to borrow from their 2018 international pool, allowing them to use the full amount available, a figure that should be around $4.75 million.
A threat to the Cubs for Maitan’s services will be divisional foe, the St Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals have been very much in on Maitan since he was a 13-year old and they have an estimated $1 million more than the Cubs do in their bonus pool of money.
If the Cubs could acquire Maitan, he could be one of those players that can revitalize the quality of the Cubs minor leagues. I would argue they have several players already able to change the internal talent pool, Kevin would immediately impact the organization’s depth.
Bullpen Journeyman
The Chicago Cubs need reliable guys to fill out their pen. But even more importantly they need guys that will not walk hitters.
Walks in relief have the ability to completely crush teams. We all witnessed Carl Edwards implosion in the playoffs. But even before that Washington Nationals series, we saw Carl give up a horrendous amount of walks (5.2 BB/9). This is why the Cubs need to find relievers that won’t offer up free passes late in games, and I would look to someone that has lots of experience but is still young. A guy that has done it when it mattered most. A guy like Addison Reed.
Addison has been an extremely reliable reliever over the course of his career. Owning a 1.160 WHIP, 3.40 ERA, 3.18 FIP, an impressive 3.58 xFIP, and has only once given up a BB/9 ratio over 3 in his career – Addison would be a great fit for the Cubs.
He is the exact type of reliever that the Cubs need. A guy that goes out and throws strikes, gets guys to swing and miss (9.5 K/9), and strands guys on base (86% LOB% as opposed to Card Edwards 78% in 2017 and 59% in 2016).
The one area that is a bit scary is his higher than you’d feel comfortable with, HR rate. In 2017 he gave up 1.3 HR/9 and 12.5% of the fly balls hit against him were home runs. Take someone like Pedro Strop, who I know you think gives up a lot of home runs, and you see he allowed 0.60 HR/9 and only 8.7% of fly balls hit off him went out.
Home runs aside if the Cubs are going to trust their closing duties to someone like Brandon Morrow, and it seems like they will, Addison could be an important pick-up. Reed has had success closing before. When Jeurys Familia served his suspension in 2017, Reed was 19 of 20 in save opportunities. He also had varying rates of success closing for the Chicago White Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks.
A guy that will be turning 29 this offseason, the Cubs could ink him to a team friendly 3-4 year deal.
Rocky Southpaw
I’m not talking about Rocky II when he had to fight as a right-handed boxer and then switched it up to lefty late in the fight. I am talking about a certain Colorado Rockie which fits into the Cubs/Tampa Bay Rays connection.
Jake McGee was phenomenal as a Ray, pitching to the tune of a 2.77 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, 11.1 K/9, 2.58 FIP, and a 3.05 xFIP. He is also one of those reverse split guys, where he pitches better against right-handers than he does against lefties.
The Cubs, who will be down to only Mike Montgomery and Justin Wilson from the left side, can use another reliable lefty reliever. With Montgomery potentially fighting for a starter’s role or being the main long relief man. Then Wilson potentially getting a shot at closing or being the main lefty vs. lefty reliever – the team will need another option for earlier high-leverage situations.
McGee had some arm issues early in his career but has not had a flare up in some time. This seems to be the perfect fit in a Cubs bullpen, especially with familiar faces in Jim Hickey and Joe Maddon at the helm.
Another Tony
The Chicago White Sox didn’t have a whole lot to watch throughout the 2017 season, except the growth of Yoan Moncada. But there was a surprising performance happening in their bullpen, and out of a surprising dude.
Anthony Swarzak had a career 4.52 ERA and just seemed to be a guy to fill innings. But something happened in 2017. Something appeared to click.
The first thing you see is that he added about 1 MPH to his fastball. While this could be simply attributed to the new way MLB clocked pitches, it could also have been a real increase. The other thing that stands out is, he has reduced his pitch repertoire from four pitches to two.
The results were a sub 3 ERA and respectable numbers all around.
There is always risk with a guy that performed much better than his career norms. Do you overpay for one six-month stretch? Or have baseball executives gotten smarter?
I can see Anthony signing a two-year deal for around $7.5 to $9 million a season. Will that team be the Cubs? Good question.
Improvement
That is what the Cubs are looking for out of any offseason move. There’s the obvious guys like Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, and Brandon Morrow that offer the ability to improve from the top down. This list gives the Cubs the ability to improve their roster from the bottom up.
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