The Next in Line, Addison Russell

The Chicago Cubs had a relatively quiet offseason. There were minimal moves, and the moves that were made were very low risk, high reward type deals. From an offensive perspective, the Cubs lost their leadoff hitter in Dexter Fowler. But many fans, and Cubs personnel, point to a full season of Kyle Schwarber as the cure to that. In fact, many fans are expecting Kyle to be the biggest difference maker in the 2017 Cubs offense. While I believe Schwarber will  have a great season, the next in line is Addison Russell.

It could be a difficult sell to many who have watched him these past two years. His importance to the Cubs lineup had been advertised by many. His success, especially at home, contributed to the Cubs success all throughout the season. And I don’t know about you, but his Game 6 grand slam will last in my memory forever.

This said, he is ready for that next level.

His 21 home runs and 4.3 WAR show he is an extremely capable player. In fact he performed like an all star caliber player, much to the chagrin of Dodgers, Rockies, and Brewers fans.

But we are talking about his growth. A growth which should put him into MVP conversations in the not too distant future. A future so bright the Cubs captain isn’t afraid to label it.

“I have him pegged as an MVP,” Rizzo said when visiting with the Spiegel and Goff show on WSCR-AM 670 The Score. “He knows it. I tell him every day, I have the biggest baseball crush on him since he got called up. The way he plays, the way he moves. I have him pegged to win the MVP one year for sure.”

But Where’s the Breakout?

But still, Addison has yet to truly breakout. He’s had two subpar offensive seasons, slashing just .240/.314/.404 in his first two seasons. Russell’s career to this point is closer to that of Marcus Semien than Cal Ripken.

I believe Russell makes a huge jump towards realizing his potential in 2017. Part of this jump will be his maturity and quickly understanding how pitchers are getting him out.

Addison has shown in his first couple of years, the ability to adjust to how opposing pitchers attack him. While the adjustments themselves take a week or so, most take a month to become locked in. There’s the old saying that it takes about 21 so days for something to become habit, Addison showed in the playoffs he could adapt much quicker.

The playoffs, I believe, were huge for Addison. Now he didn’t tear the cover off he ball, but he made the necessary and quick adjustments needed to become a factor. Looking back at the Dodgers series, Russell was hardly a factor until Game 4 of the NLCS. Russell would start the NLCS 0 for 9, then turn it on by batting .462 thereafter.

A sign which shows he is ready to become a bigger threat is his contact rate. MLB.com’s Mike Petriello put together some interesting stats on the end of Russell’s 2016 as compared to the beginning. Throughout much of the season Russell was making contact well below the MLB average. Throughout August and September he rose his contact rate up to the MLB average, showing how he was able to adapt throughout the year.

Mike was also able to illustrate that Russell produced more loft and was able to pull more pitches as the season progressed. This contributed to Russell slugging 60% of his extra base hits in the final three months of the season. Adding to his remarkable improvement, Addy hit an astonishing .385 with a .776 slugging percentage when pulling the ball.

1,500

Perhaps the biggest factor in his growth is, he finished his 2016 campaign with exactly 1,000 at bats and 1,121 plate appearances. Addy pulled in just over 900 plate appearances in the minor leagues as well. His improvements lineup with the theory of 1,500.

This is a number that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer love. They prefer that their hitters take 1,500 plate appearances before stepping foot in the Major Leagues. They figure that in those 1,500 plate appearances they will see just about every pitch, every situation, and every adjustment a pitcher can make. If that player is still able to succeed, he is ready for the show.

Assuming around June is when Addison surpassed the 1,500 professional plate appearances mark, it is no wonder he saw vast improvement during the second half of the season.

.300 Hitter, He is Not

Addison is a complete package. He pushes anyone on the team as the best defensive player, and many are expecting a huge power year from the young shortstop. I am too, for the record.

What we shouldn’t expect, which Addison himself tells us, is… he isn’t going to be a high average guy. His entire baseball career, spanning from little league to high school to minor leagues to the majors – he is a power/run producing hitter. Joe Maddon sees Russell as this type as well, batting Addison in the fifth or sixth spot in the lineup. This is that last real run producing spot. A guy that produces a lot of extra base hits, but might not be a high average type.

This is who Russell is, and with the likes of Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo, and Ben Zobrist hitting in front of Addison and if  he should be in for a gigantic season. With Russell’s 2016 contributions being huge, his improved contact rates, increased ability to drive the ball, and overall ability – he could certainly become an MVP caliber player in 2017 and beyond.

The MVP

The Cubs will be looking for a daily spark with the departure of Dexter Fowler. While yes, a full season of Schwarber will add offense, Addison is the most capable player to add that spark offensively or defensively, daily.

The top of the order will definitely contribute, hitting more than their fair share of homers and scoring a ton of runs. While they will put pitchers on the ropes, Addison will be he one to put them out.

Projections

So there are scientific projections, like ZiPS or steamer, then there are the fan fantasy projections that are based on… well they ate usually just made up. Either case I’ll do my best to give my two cents.

ZiPS – .238/.320/.424 19 HR 91 RBI 69 R .298 BABIP .318 wOBA 96 wRC+
Steamer – .247/.321/.417 18 HR 68 RBI 61 R .291 BABIP .317 wOBA 96 wRC+

These two highly respected projections have Addison putting in a relatively similar season in comparison to 2016. It’s my belief, as well as the point of the article, to show he would improve. To show improvement I am going to include Russell’s late season adjustments, and sore how that factors into his production.

Chicago Style Sports Prediction
CSCP – .270/.322/.475 27 HR 84 RBI 69 R .312 BABIP .319 wOBA 96 wRC+

As you can immediately tell, I rate him to have a much better season than both ZiPS and Steamer. Part of this is due to the other prediction calculations often weighing stats down as they refrain from over-predicting. This is often a safe prediction, and you can often rely on their advanced stats to be more accurate than actual AVG, HR, RBI stats.

Our calculation includes trends weighed out across the entire season. What our calculation doesn’t include is the league adjusting to player tendencies. I will suggest that some of those adjustments will be quickly amended as Addison has become more experienced and understands what opposing pitchers are attempting to do against him.

With experience, Addison should begin to reach his offensive potential and with his defensive prowess should be one of the more dominate players in baseball. His maturation will assist in making the Cubs lineup one of, if not the most feared in baseball.

With his offensive skill becoming more of a force, Addison’s only real challenge will remain walks. Addison is patient at the plate, seeing 3.88 pitches per plate appearance in 2017, but he often relies on swinging to reach base. Russell himself mentions how he appreciates a walk, but would much rather hit his way on.

“The possibilities are endless when you have people who are walking,” Russell said. “You’re battling with the pitcher, you really want to get a hit. He ends up throwing a 3-2 (pitch) in the dirt. The bat’s not really taken out of your hands, but you didn’t hit the ball, so you … leave it up to the next guy.”

With Addison cutting down on his strikeouts with his late season adjustment, you would expect his walks to increase as well. This wasn’t the case with Addison, as he appeared to get more aggressive on pitches in the zone. I wouldn’t suggest Addy cuts back, which would certainly effect his aggressiveness, but pitch selection could certainly improve.

Last season Addison swung at 31% of the pitches he saw out of the zone. With a contact rate of 55% on would-be balls, the impact in his all around game begins to be clear. With the league average sitting around 30% (O-Swing%) and hitters with exceptional plate discipline around 20%, Addison could certainly improve in this area.

Overall, Addison is in store for a much improved 2017 and very well could be a major factor in the Cubs avoiding a championship hangover. With improved offense, the same outstanding defense, and stretching a lineup that is already deep – Addison Russell can begin his path towards MVP in 2017.