On Friday, Hall ot Fame baseball reporter Peter Gammons was on the Mully and Hanley show on WSCR-AM 670. While visiting he of course touched on a number of Chicago baseball related topics, but the bombshell was when he said he expected the Kansas City Royals star left fielder to end up playing for the Cubs in 2016 and beyond.
This of course raises some eyebrows, as far as what that would mean for some current Cubs players. While the answers might not be extremely clear, I’ll try and sort this out for you.
The Chicago Cubs sign Alex Gordon
With the Cubs and Alex Gordon coming to an agreement, there are several questions that suddenly pop up. Gordon, is a left fielder, and according to Jon Heyman the best ever.
not sure theres ever been a better left fielder than alex gordon. i know i cant think of one. #royals
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) October 15, 2015
There have been some special fielders in the long history of baseball, and Jon isnt one to rush to judgement while ignoring that fact.
Alex Gordon’s .271/.377/.432 slash line would fit in perfectly in an already dynamic Cubs offense. But, it might be his defense that doesn’t fit in…
First domino, Kyle Schwarber
Alex Gordon is possibly the best defensive left fielder in the game today, so how could his defense not fit in with the Cubs? A young slugger by the name of Kyle Schwarber is why.
Kyle isn’t even a tenth of the defensive player Gordon is, but his bat just may become one of the best we’ve seen in a long time. An Alex Gordon signing would definitely cause some questions in the Cubs outfield, one that doesn’t have the simplest of answers either.
Kyle is officially listed as a catcher when you look on the back of his baseball card, but he only played the position in 21 games throughout his 64 game rookie season. While sure he’s a “catcher” playing there in only a third of the games doesn’t exactly mean he’s a catcher.
Kyle will now than likely be penciled in as the Cubs left fielder for 2016, but Gordon would change that. While Alex could play the other corner OF spot, he hasn’t played right field since 2010, and that was only three games. Gordon would certainly play left, and with the Cubs caring two catchers that are better than Shwarber behind the plate, it leaves him without a position of his own.
Unless…
Second domino, Jorge Soler
I swear I really like Jorge Soler, but in every scenario that I unfold (Jason Heyward, Jordan Zimmerman) he is the odd man out. Part of the reason is he is somewhat expendable (when honestly looking at the team and is makeup) but also because he had a very team friendly contract, and he brings a lot of value to any deal he might be involved in.
When facing the facts, the Cubs would be foolish to trade Kyle Schwarber. He might be a once per generation type of offensive player, and he could be in Chicago for a very long time. That leads one to believe that, baring a surprise move of Miguel Montero, Soler would be traded, presumably for pitching and Schwarber will make a move to right field.
Both the Atlanta Braves and Cleveland Indians have strong interest in Soler, and both teams have young controllable pitchers they could send in return. If the Cubs were to trade Soler, which would happen if they sign Gordon, then they would certainly do it for pitching.
The Atlanta Braves were right alongside the Cubs when Soler was looking to sign with a MLB team, and through reports this past season, they were still very interested in the slugger. There is also a lot of equal interest, according to this and other reports, between the Cubs and Indians involving Jorge Soler, pitching, and anot her player the Cubs covet.
Third domino, Carlos Carrasco
The Cubs were high on Carlos Carrasco at the trade deadline, some baseball insiders even thought the Cubs and Indians had a deal in place before the deadline. Turned out Cleveland wanted too much (Soler perhaps) and the Cubs were not open to deal him, or other bigger names, at that time.
Carrasco is a very good young pitcher, who just completed his first full season as a starter. Playing in parts of six seasons in the big leagues, Carlos is under contract until the 2019 season at a modest $5.5 M per season. He immediately fits into the Cubs youth movement, and would be here for several more years.
Fourth domino, free agency starting pitcher
While many believe that the Cubs will go after David Price and Zack Greinke, signing another bigger name free agent takes them out of those conversations. While yes, the Cubs will still go after a starter, another name Peter Gammons mentioned was John Lackey.
The Cubs very well could go after Lackey, who not only is good through 162, but has been extremely impressive during the playoffs, especially of late. He would be a smaller commitment (in terms of dollars and possibly years), however he is a trickier option since the St Louis Cardinals have submitted a qualifying offer for Lackey.
Because both Alex Gordon and Lackey received QO from their teams, any team that signs these players would lose their top unprotected draft pick (here is a great explaination of Qualifyed Offers and the rules). If the Cubs were to sign either player, they would lose their top two picks in the draft.
While the team had built themselves on the draft, this is now something the Cubs could entertain. With them being so close in 2015, giving up two future picks is a small token to pay for a chance at winning a World Series within the next three or four seasons.
Fifth domino, sophomore slump
While the Cubs might not win the World Series next season, many odds makers have already named them the favorite to win in 2016, this team will be built to make that championship run. Like Theo said (paraphrasing), the best way to win is by building a team that will be there year in year out, this club will be built to be there for years to come.
The Cubs are built on many young players, and Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Kyle Schwarber may hit that sophomore slump in 2016. If they struggle, it’s not because they are bad players, no just look at Anthony Rizzo’s second full year in the Major’s, he and just about anyone not named Mike Trout struggle in their second season. The league tends to catch up with a young player, opposing pitching staffs have an entire offseason to breakdown the weaknesses in a player’s swing and they adjust accordingly.
The Cubs success in 2016 will be correlated to how quickly these youngsters can adjust back to the league. It’s hard to imagine Bryant striking out more than he did in 2015, and judging from his — and frankly most of the Cubs young nucleus — makeup, don’t expect these guys to slump for very long.
Part of that reasoning is, these youngsters are professionals, even before they made their MLB debut. Part of that is Jed Hoyer’s and Theo Epstein’s belief in having young hitters well prepared by having lots of at bats in the minors so that hutters can experience pitches adusting to them and they can work out of potential slumps. But also, there are other guys around them that not only protect them in this dangerous lineup, but who have recently gone through these struggles as well.
The second year guy’s success will determine just how far this Cubs team will go. If they break that sophomore slump quickly, we could have an early November parade in Chicago.
