Congrats to the Kansas City Royals! Now the MLB offseason, and the final pieces to what could become a Chicago Cubs championship run, can begin!
The Cubs have been linked to several players already this offseason, but we are dissecting what it would look like if the Cubs sign Jason Heyward.
Cubs sign Jason Heyward
The Cardinals are sure to place a qualifying offer to Jason, which has been determined to be a 1 yr offer of $15.8 M. This becomes important for the Cubs as they will need to send a first round pick to St Louis. A sure sign that the Cubs will go after Heyward will be if they only offer Dexter Fowler a qualifying offer and do not pursue a long term deal with the Cubs centerfielder.
Heyward, perhaps responsible for the end of Carlos Zambrano‘s Cubs career, will cost the Cubs around $20 to $22 million a season for seven to eight years. While that figure seems like a lot for a right fielder that hits 15 HRs a season, Heyward has posted a 31.1 career WAR and has only a pair of seasons in which he posted a less than 5.0 WAR. His back-to-back 6+ WAR seasons not only suggest he’s one of the best players in the league, but values him at around $40 M a season, or about double what he will be paid.
The only issue will be, where does he play? While Heyward can play centerfield, he is much better in right, and the Cubs will also look to add a centerfielder that is also a leadoff hitter. Thus poses a problem for the Cubs as they already have a right fielder in Jorge Soler.
First domino, Jorge Soler
Soler is a hell of a player in his own right. While he’s not on Hayward’s level, he will be a very valuable player, at a great cost for years to come.
If Heyward is signed, the team would either, need to move Soler to left field, or trade him away. Soler is not the type of player that sits on your bench, and if the team were to do so they could stall his development process.
Moving Soler to left presents yet another issue… Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber already causes question as a less than stellar left fielder, and it is difficult for a team to carry three catchers throughout a 162 game season. The Cubs would be forced to deal one of the two — Soler or Schwarber — as they are both everyday players, and it would come down to a couple of important questions; do the Cubs value offense or defense and what value would the team receive in return.
That said, Soler was a negative WAR player in 2015, and while a large chunk of his season was lost to injury, it is in the Cubs best interest to buy wins, and eliminate losses. While no one has truly witnessed what Soler can do over 162, trading a potential 40+ HR guy in Schwarber is not a mistake the Cubs would likely make.
Second domino, Dexter Fowler
Sure the Cubs have tons of resources, but contradictory to what a lot of fans think, they don’t have unlimited amounts of money to give players. The team is still under some spending restrictions (explained in best detail by the great folks at Bleacher Nation) and if the team were to realize their offseason goals of adding contact hitters (Heyward) and dependable starting pitching, Fowler would be the odd man out.
Because Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are smart guys, they will place a qualifying offer for Fowler, then collect the draft pick once he signs elsewhere. The Cubs would then search for a free agent centerfielder, that has also been a legitimate leadoff hitter during his career.
Domino three, trade market
We’ve already mentioned Jorge Soler would be traded (in the Heyward scenario) and he would certainly be used to acquire pitching. While Soler hasn’t proven much on the field yet, teams will certainly take a chance on his future production, especially with him earning $2.667 M for the next several years.
It becomes a question of what can the Cubs get in return for Soler.
While his lackluster -0.1 WAR placed him solely as a prototypical AAAA player, his talents and flashes of brilliance show he can be much more. Team’s will hopefully overpay for the opportunity to buy his future production, and if those teams are not starting offers with a young, future controlled pitcher that could step into the Cubs rotation as a number three right now, they hang up the phone.
The Cubs will also be in the market for a centerfielder, and while they could sign someone like Denard Span in free agency, the Cubs certainly have the firepower to pull off a deal that sees a strong CF/leadoff type come back the Cubs way. Maybe a bigger deal with Soler, and a couple prospects, that includes a pitcher and a CF coming back in return.
Domino four, free agency plans
If the Cubs work the Jason Heyward front, don’t expect them to offer him $20 million a season and offer David Price $30 million. They will have several key bullpen arms to replace, and will certainly look to add a couple of strong defensive minded guys that make a lot of contact.
If the Royals have taught baseball anything, it’s that teams can still win through strong bullpens, defense, and guys that make consistent contact. It wouldn’t hurt is a couple of those guys were fast also.
Signing Heyward would almost certainly mean the Cubs would be out of the David Price conversation, which considering his contract demands it might be a good thing. Instead of Price, the Cubs would turn to someone like Jordan Zimmermann or Johnny Cueto in free agency. Both should command a ton of money, but their demands will certainly be less than Price, and something a little easier for the Cubs budget to swallow.
Domino five, lineup
I hope you, the fan, are not reading this with a negative light. Especially since I’m basically saying get rid of Soler for Heyward. Being truthful with you, Heyward is a much better player than Soler is, he’s just a lot more expensive.
While I’m not suggesting that the Cubs would “give-up” on Soler (so many fans think that’s the case when someone is traded, fact is it typically is the opposite), the course of this article shows what will happen if the Cubs front office goes after wins instead of potential in terms of their right fielder. Soler could go on to have multiple 30 homer seasons, and make the Cubs look silly, but present day… Heyward is better.
What is even nicer about Heyward is, he would instantly become the Cubs two-hole hitter, allowing Schwarber to slide down in the order in a more RBI friendly spot. Plugging in a .285 hitter who can hit 35-40 home runs in the 3rd-5th spot in the order, will make a Cubs lineup that includes Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Miguel Montero, and Schwarber just that much more explosive. Adding someone who has the ability to get on base as much as Heyward does, puts that much more pressure on a pitcher that will have four legit run producers to follow (not including a possible Starlin Castro). That lineup would be deadly.
Domino six, championship drought
The Cubs will be going on year 108 without a championship. That’s a long freaking time. If the Cubs open the checkbook, and of course add another pitcher and some bullpen help, this would end the Cubs drought.
Heyward has been a 6.0 or better WAR player three times in his career, and over five all but two years.
These are the implications of adding Heyward. He is a stud, and should continue to be one wherever he goes from here. Should the Cubs sign him, there will be current roster implications, but most fans would be fine if it meant the end to the longest championship drought in the game.
