Javier Baez put a lot out to the Chicago media the last few days. He spoke about potential extensions, free agency thoughts, and most shockingly, how much he’s been unprepared over the last several seasons. It was a raw look into how the player has managed since the 2016 World Series, which players tend to shy away from due to the backlash.
But this is Javier Baez, and what he says fans tend to flock to it and support him. He publicly said he wasn’t into baseball. He was then praised by many fans for how honest and how they respected him for opening up.
“To me, my personal opinion, after we won and then in ’17 we played the [World] Baseball Classic, I did the body issue, to me, I kind of got away for baseball, mentally got away from baseball.”
The Athletic – Sahadev Sharma
This is what a current Cubs player, seeking a new contract (I am hearing he is seeking at least $24 million a season for around eight years) told the world. And he was revered for it. In fact, the biggest quote that came from Baez was, “I don’t want to play for another team.”
But honestly, that message was buried in another report talking about how Joe Maddon prepared, or didn’t, the team. And it was on The Athletic, so it was buried behind a paywall (which, I know money is always tight, but The Athletic is worth the investment). So there weren’t a ton of everyday Cubs fans that saw this, and the way The Athletic is set up, someone following another team probably isn’t casually falling across this quote either.
Fans have a huge double-standard when it comes to Cubs players. Just a few years back, Anthony Rizzo mentioned that he thought they played too much baseball, Cubs fans backed that stance while most baseball was critical of those comments. Just about a month ago, Kris Bryant said all the other stuff that comes with being a crazy talented baseball player who struggled in one season gave him the natural thoughts of why does he put himself through all of this. Then the Chicago media and fans ripped him apart.
Equally, when Willson Contreras mentioned that he wasn’t preparing himself the way he should. He wasn’t lifting, putting in the hard work to ensure he was strong for a full 162-game season. The fans tore him apart for this admission.
FFS, Baez said he was distracted by everything else coming to him and Maddie Lee wrote a heroic story on Baez titled: How Cubs’ Javier Baez battled fame to refocus on his craft! The Chicago media (ahem Jesse Rogers) twisted Bryant’s comments and wrote a story titled: Chicago Cubs’ Kris Bryant not having as much fun playing baseball as before. That isn’t even what Bryant said and Rogers twisted his words around to sell a bullshit narrative.
During his conversations at spring training, he mentioned that he is contemplating giving the Cubs a deadline for extension talks. Here is a player that has discussed an extension with the Cubs in each of the last three seasons. He is looking for around $200 million, telling the Cubs that he wasn’t prepared. It seems that a player, who hasn’t prepared himself properly over the last five years isn’t worth the $200 million, let alone has the ability to give such an ultimatum.
We can go into his performance all day. I will point out that he is a career below-league average ballplayer. You will say his slides and his tags. One of those gets players $200 million, the other is not. I will say, there is something Baez brings to the game that isn’t measurable. There are few players that have ever played that provide that sort of spark. In 2018, he wasn’t an MVP candidate because of his offensive performance (he was ranked anywhere between eighth and 40th across any major offensive rankings). He was an MVP candidate because of that extra something he gives.
When the Cubs offense was rolling, we saw video clips of him gliding 25 feet while sliding into home plate while finishing it off with the smoothest pop-up at the end I’ve ever seen. He was sliding into third with the calmest hand grab you’ve seen. It was him psychically tagging a baserunner that was already past him, called safe on the field and out via replay. It was him stealing home.
Sure, his offensive performance was good – the best of his career – but it wasn’t really near MVP-level performance. It was all those other things that have caused brain aneurysms in the nerds over at Fangraphs (I say that with affection as I am also a stat nerd) in trying to build a stat that completely encapsulates everything else Baez brings.
The fact, however, is… he hasn’t consistently performed up to the standards which gets players $200 million. Here is a list of the players who have earned a $200 million deal (or higher):
- Mike Trout – $426.5m
- Mookie Betts – $365m
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – $340m
- Bryce Harper – $330m
- Giancarlo Stanton – $325m
- Gerrit Cole – $324m
- Manny Machado – $300m
- Miguel Cabrera – $292m
- Alex Rodriguez – $275m
- Nolan Arenado – $260m
- Alex Rodriguez – $252m
- Anthony Rendon – $245m
- Stephen Strasburg – $245m
- Albert Pujols – $240m
- Robinson Cano – $240m
- Joey Votto – $225m
- David Price – $217m
- Clayton Kershaw – $215m
- Christian Yelich – $215m
- Prince Fielder – $214m
- Max Scherzer – $210m
- Zack Greinke – $206m
Each of those players, outside of maybe Tatis Jr., has personally achieved more than Baez has on the diamond. They all had higher WAR’s than Baez did at the time of their deal (again, sans Tatis) and by all other offensive metrics performed at a higher ability than Baez has. Yes, I know that defense is also an important part of the game, but it is becoming less and less important as baseball has turned to a more analytic game. Meaning, there are algorithms built using thousands upon thousands of data points to tell a player where to position themselves against every hitter. So, knowing this, his defense – while an asset – becomes less of an asset since he is being told exactly where to stand in every at-bat.
There is something to be said about Baez’s improved play in 2018 and 2019. His average increased by 22 points, his OBP improved by 17 points, his SLG improved by 71 points. His WAR across those two seasons was 11.8 while he had only accumulated 5.9 WAR in the other five seasons he played.
Now, we have to add context, right? In 2018 he had a .290/.326/.554 slash line. That is good, especially from a shortstop. But, his 134 wRC+ (a better measurement of run production when compared against the rest of baseball in that season) was rated 24th in baseball. In 2018, he posted a .281/.316/.531 line, and his 114 wRC+ was rated 64th in baseball. He just barely made it to the top 10 in shortstops that season.
If you’ve read anything I have written on 2020 and player struggles, I have basically thrown them in the trash. I am a bit confused why a team like the San Diego Padres would give Tatis Jr. the third biggest (total value) deal in baseball history after he’s played only 143 games. Now, I think he is the truth, and I think he will be a force in this game for a long while, but a 14-yr contract for a player who hasn’t even played 162-MLB games yet is a risk.
Regardless, we are looking at Baez, his negotiations, and his worth. Fangraphs places Baez at a total value of $112.3 million in his seven seasons in Chicago. He was worth as much as $43.1 million (2018) and as low as -$5.8 million (2014 and yes, negative dollars). Over his last four seasons, he has been “worth” $96.8 million to the Cubs. Now, a player almost never gets anything near the value they put up, otherwise, Mike Trout would earn $70 million a season.
If the best player in baseball is getting around 40% of his value, that puts Baez around $10 million in AAV.
Eeek – ONLY $10 MILLION!!!???
Of course, that isn’t a fair deal for Baez, and using Trout as an indicator isn’t really fair to trout or Baez. But even if Baez was to get 80% of his value, that is $19 million a season. Spending around $20 million a season on Baez, to me, seems like a risk that is prime to blow up in your face.
He’s openly admitted to allowing other things to influence him. He has said the outside influences has caused him to not focus on the game. What happens when you give a career below-average offensive player $20 million a year over five, six, seven, or eight years?
I believe in Baez, I believe in his talent, and I believe that he will continue to be a valued baseball player. But, if you are looking for a return on your invested dollar, Bryant or Ian Happ provide more return on the investment – even in bad seasons.
It’s like an investor looking at a new up-and-coming penny stock and suggesting that he puts his life’s savings on that instead of a proven commodity like the S&P 500. Sure, you might get lucky and find the next Pier 1 (was as low as $0.11 in 2009 and has since had a 21,263% increase), but you’re more likely to end up in the next Dogecoin, something that has some nice runs but you won’t retire off their gains.
Baez isn’t exactly Dogecoin or Pier 1, but he also isn’t the S&P 500 either. I want him to be a Cub for the rest of his career, but I don’t want the Cubs to spend their entire wad on him and lose out on more reliable players. Bryant or Anthony Rizzo are safer bets over the next five years than Baez is. This knowing Rizzo’s back could be an issue, this knowing that Bryant has had some injury issues of late, this knowing Baez’s ceiling is perhaps higher than either of those players. This is also knowing Baez’s floor is much lower and not allowing the positive media coverage on Baez to influence the facts.
