There has been a lot of rumors that the Chicago Cubs and their star shortstop, Javier Baez are going to discuss a contract extension. Those rumors started pretty early in the offseason and it appears that they will get serious at the Winter Meetings. But an extension for Baez isn’t very cut and dry. There are many factors at play, and coming up with years, AAV, and total deal size will be a very complicated task.
Earlier in the month, Gordon Wittenmyer suggested that a long-term deal with Baez was much more feasible than a deal with third baseman, Kris Bryant. But, it doesn’t mean it is an easy conversation to have. In fact, I would argue that a Bryant deal is much easier – especially since the market is virtually set for a player like Bryant. I think what Gordo meant was, the Baez deal is more feasible *IF* the Cubs are proceeding as a cheap organization.
The Baez conversation is much murkier, honestly. When looking at the top 10 salaries for MLB shortstops, they range from $7.5 million to $20 million per season. The top salary on the market is Xander Bogaerts, the Boston Red Sox shortstop. He signed a six-year $120 million extension with the Red Sox before the 2019 season. Offensively, he has been more reliable than Baez, posting a career .288/.350/.451 line. Defensively, he has been a borderline liability, posting a -62 DRS and a -0.1 UZR since the 2015 season. In comparison, Baez has posted a 20 DRS and an 8.4 UZR (as a SS) throughout his career.
Another name that is intriguing is Elvis Andrus. Andrus earned an eight-year contract in Texas worth $120 million. This works out to a $15 million AAV. But… offensively he leaves quite a bit to the imagination, and that is saying something since he plays in a hitter’s park (Arlington). Now, he is a contact-type, only striking out 86 times a year (yes, in today’s game that’s considered a contact hitter!?!?). Outside of his 2017 season, he has left much to be desired in terms of offensive production. Defensively he used to be much better than what he is now, but his deal was paid based on his former defensive prowess. Even still, his best defensive season was 2009, where he posted a 15 DRS and 11.9 UZR, similar to Baez’s 2019 – 15 DRS and 10.0 UZR.
I think the best comps to Baez are Trevor Story and Francisco Lindor.
Both players get on base at a higher clip than Baez (Story gets on at a .341 rate, Lindor gets on at a .347 clip, Baez’s OBP is .310). Admittedly though, the player Baez has been in 2018 and 2019 is a much different player than he was previously in his career. Sometime in the first month of 2018, something clicked with Baez, and he started to fulfill his potential. I would also argue Story benefits from Coors Field (home: .301/.368/.630 away: .250/.313/.443). Lindor might be the closest thing we can use in comparison.
Lindor is in his final arbitration year, and he earned $10.5 million in 2019. He projects to make $16.7 million in 2020. Lindor posted a 4.4 fWAR in 2019, whereas Baez posted a 4.3. Lindor’s OPS was .853 in 2019, while Baez ended with a .847. Defensively, they are very similar players. While Baez probably has more range and ability for the dramatic, Lindor is more seasoned at the position and can rely on better positioning. Baez also gave up the SS spot to Lindor in the World Baseball Classic, however, Baez was much more of a utility player at that point in his career and second base was his primary spot at that time.
But… they are virtually equal.
With no other players to really gauge a projected salary on, and the only real comp is also in his arbitration process – if the Cubs and Baez agree to terms – they will likely be setting the market for Lindor. This is an odd spot to be in.
To further complicate things, I think fans have gotten the false sense that extension means providing a home-town discount. That just hasn’t been the case in recent years, especially for established players. Look at the Mike Trout extension, Nolan Arenado, Jose Altuve, and Bogaerts (among a ton of others) and these players are getting market rates in extensions. (Well, besides Trout which I don’t think there’s enough money in baseball to pay him what he’s worth).
We have a player (Bogaerts) that is similar offensively and makes $20 million a season. We have a player (Andrus) that is (was) similar defensively and makes $15 million a season. Both of which earned their money through extensions. Does this mean Baez can get $25 million? $28 million? Or even $30 million a season?
Not likely.
Baez is predicted to earn $9.3 million in 2020 by MLB Trade Rumors. Posting another year similar to either the 2018 or 2019 season, and he should be worth something around the Lindor prediction of $16.7 million for 2020. So an extension should absorb the $26 million he would earn over the next two seasons. Next, you look at the comps in the field, and really the only shortstop to give a real comp to is Bogaerts.
Since Baez is double the player Bogaerts is (not really, but it’s fun to say) Baez should certainly earn more than Xander. I do think we have a fair market number of years. With Andrus getting an eight-year extension and Bogaerts landing a six-year deal (with a vesting seventh) something between six and eight makes sense. With Baez coming into his age-27 season, a six-year pact would bring him to 33 and an eight-year deal would bring him to age 35.
The Cubs will want to stay around six years with a vesting year, as a player as athletic as Baez and willing to give up his body, he could see a remarkable downturn in ability and health after he turns 32. But, I will say that today’s training programs are pushing the human body to new limits and traditional wear and tear assumptions might be out of date.
Baez and his agent will want to push that eighth year. With some precedence (Andrus and Altuve earned essentially seven years) they have a case. Even with an eight-year deal, that puts Baez only at 35, and he could very well have baseball left in him after that.
Now the money.
Again, there isn’t really a precedent in place for a player like Baez. I mean, sure, there have been star shortstops to get paid in baseball. The Derek Jeter’s, the Alex Rodriguez’s, the Nomar Garciaparra’s. But that was a different baseball landscape and era.
Those guys not only pushed salary for ALL players, but they were also the best of the best of all time. Baez, while an incredibly good player, isn’t in the Hall of Fame type discussions. He does happen to play in an era directly after guys like Jeter and A-Rod and benefits from how they pushed salary in the game.
Baez should absolutely get more than Bogaerts. He’s a better all-around player. Xander was a year younger than Baez when he got his extension, but Baez brings it on both sides. So to start, he’s getting more than $20 million a season. But, how much more?
I think we need to start getting creative here. Per WAR over the past two seasons (I like to use fWAR as I feel it normalizes across all positions better) Baez has averaged 4.9 fWAR per season. He ranks sixth of all shortstops over this span (kinda, sorta… Alex Bergman ranks first but is mostly a third baseman). If we take an elementary approach of X WAR x 7.5 = salary, Baez is worth $36.5 million a season. No one really gets their worth in WAR, but would it be crazy to suggest that Baez should get just under $24 million a season?
If the top shortstop salary is $20 million, signing Baez at $23.75 million over seven years, this pays him the $26 million he would make in the next two seasons, plus the top shortstop salary thereafter. This would put the complete deal at $166.25 million.
The Cubs would still be in great financial shape, having roughly $22 million to match their 2019 payroll (there’re some assumptions about some current roster members that likely won’t be in this estimate). The MLB CBT increases to $208 million and can spend up to $248 million without hitting that last, and much stricter surtax.
I would argue that the club could sign Baez for $23.75 per season AND sign Bryant at nearly $30 million a season and still be in ok financial shape with the ability to offer new money to guys like Anthony Rizzo and Willson Contreras when their deals are up.
