While the 2020 season didn’t go as well as any Chicago Cubs fan would have hoped. But, if you remove the ultra-critical-ism from the equation, the roster isn’t that far away from contention. Yeah, I said it, this roster isn’t that far from contention. Pop another big pitcher, add a contact hitter or two, and BOOM this is a team that competes with the likes of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the National League title again. But, there are some constraints that will keep the Cubs from adding such players, and while most people point to monetary constraints, the biggest reason has nothing to do with money at all.
Entering this offseason it is very unlikely that the Cubs pick-up the options on Jon Lester, and even less likely to make strong efforts of re-signing any parting free agent. I recently suggested that the Cubs wouldn’t (and shouldn’t) put out a qualifying offer to any of their free agents. Not only would it potentially ruin any attempt at a productive offseason, but it would likely keep any of those players off a 2021 roster until mid-June or later.
That reasoning is because of the draft pick compensation tied to any player that declines a qualifying offer.
Literally, every Cubs blog, or legitimized Chicago media site, has proposed that the cure to the Cubs woes are Trevor Bauer, D.J. LeMehieu, and George Springer. I have done it, look at any of the more popular sites and you’ll see them doing it as well. Those other sites are also telling you that the Cubs won’t sign any of those players because of budgetary reasons, and I agree, but the biggest reason isn’t the budget.
We already know the Cubs are attempting to “thread the needle” which means strategic navigation of trading current core players, receiving the necessary return, building the roster for 2021 success and beyond. Gone are the days when teams can just willy-nilly spend in free agency to fill holes. The game has changed, partially to do with the luxury tax and the penalties attached to exceeding the CBT multiple years. If competitive roster construction was as easy as opening the checkbook, Mr. Ricketts would have done that a long time ago.
So, while the ability to move a current “core-player” could add some financial flexibility, allowing the club to pounce on one or more of the aforementioned players, the Cubs *could* do that without the trades. No, the Cubs aren’t overly concerned at the moment with the financial ramifications of acquiring a big-name free agent (while they will remain flexible as no one knows the future with COVID-19 continuing to loom), they are much more concerned with the future ramifications of losing two – or more – draft picks if they do sign one of those players.
Bauer, LeMehieu, and Springer will undoubtedly be presented with a qualifying offer once teams are allowed to do so. This will put the player on the clock for 10-days as they contemplate accepting or declining that offer. The QO is a one-year salary, averaged out across the top 125 salaries across baseball. In 2021, that salary will be $18.9 million.
In each of the above player’s cases, they will certainly earn more than $18.9 million in a season – and even if the current climate affects the economics, they’ll certainly earn much more across a long-term deal. There would be little sense for a club that is now looking to not only compete in 2021 but to also look forward to 2022 and beyond, to sign a player that handicaps their ability to compete in 2022 and beyond.
In today’s game, you absolutely need homegrown players to be able to step into MLB roles as veteran players leave in free agency. If you do not have internal assets replacing more expensive ones, your battleship will sink due to luxury tax, loss of draft picks, and another organization having better roster flexibility. If the Cubs were to sign one of the trio above (or any player that declines a QO) they would relinquish their second-round pick AND their fifth-round pick. This would mean that after the 21st selection in the draft, the Cubs wouldn’t have another selection until the 80th pick.
With less information available on both High School and College players (due to COVID-19 canceling seasons), this is not the year to lose picks. I would also bet that prospects would have a much higher value in 2021 that ever before BECAUSE there’s less intel on incoming amateur players and teams will likely look to reduce overall payroll. If organizations are going to be tight on the wallet in 2021, I don’t see a team with minimal money available ALSO giving up picks that could help replenish a farm system. I just don’t see it.
