We’ve been talking about the idea that the Chicago Cubs will sit down with their core players during spring training and have extension talks. With everyone in one place, and apparently Tom Ricketts found an extra several million in his couch, there’s an idea that something could get done. But, as everyone seems to proclaim over and over (like they’re the first to ever bring it up) there isn’t enough money to go around.
This will likely mean that one, or more of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, or Javier Baez will become a free agent at the end of the 2021 season.
Now, if you were to poll the fans on which players the Cubs should keep (which I have done) they will suggest Rizzo and Baez should get the extensions. There’s an argument for that, especially if you don’t believe the Cubs can re-sign their best player (Bryant) but the team has actually tried to sign those other guys without success. They (yes, I’m a broken record on this) have never tried as hard to sign Bryant as they’ve done with the other two.
Now, they have all three in camp and all three have professed (again) their commitment to the Cubs and their want to stay in Chicago for the remainder of their careers. But the other side needs to reciprocate the feeling they have with offers. While each player suggests there’s a good relationship, those relationships haven’t ended in deals yet.
“I’ve always said I’ve been open and willing to hear whatever Jed now has to say and would take it with open arms and consider everything that is thrown my way,” Bryant said. “I think I’ve communicated that well with them. They know where I stand.”
But there has been optimism from the players, and the team, that positive momentum can happen in their short time in Arizona. This is what Hoyer spoke about on Sunday.
“It’s the best time of year to have those conversations,” Hoyer said. “I think the danger of having those discussions or opening things up publicly is this notion that if you don’t get something done by the opening day, like talks failed, or fell apart. So I think there’s a real risk in that and not with us. … I’d love to have conversations with these guys and their agents, kind of talk through where we are.”
It would seem like negotiations would be a breeze, right? Since the players want to be in Chicago and the team wants them to remain here, it should be a matter of money at that point. Money is one of the easier things to figure out in today’s game. With so many young players with so many comps, the hardest part (a player wanting to play here) is really done.
“I think that’s great that they feel that way about this place,” president Jed Hoyer said Sunday. “It’d be disappointing after this much time with these players if they felt otherwise.”
Competition among the core?
There is the belief that has started to go around that since there isn’t an unlimited amount of money to go around, the core is semi-competing for the extensions amongst themselves. Not only is it potentially a race to be the first to sign, thus guaranteeing themselves their deal, but also with their performance on the field in Spring Training games.
So, if Baez hits a homer and makes a great defensive play in a game where Bryant strikes out in each at-bat and made an error, Baez will move ahead on the extension talk board. But, if the next game Rizzo hits two bombs, now he leapfrogs both.
In theory, this might be kinda happening. In reality, the Cubs know who each player is. The team knows that they have one of the more valuable and dynamic hitters in baseball with Bryant. They understand they get a leader and a consistent bat with good defense with Rizzo. They know they have, perhaps the most elite fielder in Baez. The Cubs are also smart enough to understand that what happens in Arizona really doesn’t mean much at all.
So, there really isn’t a performance competition in Mesa. And while it might seem like if they are talking to all players, there might be a *who gets the deal done quickest* competition, that’s not the case either.
The most likely outcome of these conversations will be Jed laying out to the players and agents where they are at. He will be very candid with them and the players will equally be candid in return. Those where there is common ground will progress into deeper extension talks. Where it seems there are mountains between what the player wants and what the club wants, will either be put off till October/November or let them go to free agency.
I would suspect that the players will know exactly where they each stand very soon. We might not know, and I suspect the team and the players will keep this close to the vest. But, if I were a betting man, we will hear of a signing or that player x and the Cubs are nearing a deal before the end of Spring.
It’s ok to be excited
I have seen a lot of fans very down on the Cubs this year. It is understandable, all we heard about was core player X being traded to team Y, and core player A being traded to team B. The fear was given credence when the team traded Yu Darvish and Victor Caratini to the San Diego Padres.
Then the team didn’t make a splash in free agency until they added Joc Pederson and Jake Arrieta. This came after several bigger names came off the board, and after the Darvish trade that was made in the name of reducing payroll. Fans saw this as the team replacing fan favorite Kyle Schwarber with a less likable version in Joc, and replacing Darvish with a lesser version of Arrieta, after several seasons of struggles.
Then, of course, the St Louis Cardinals traded for Nolan Arenado, making that bad feeling in the pit of their stomach become even stronger.
The thing is, fans shouldn’t be as down on this roster as they have been. Yes, the same core is still here. Yes, this is the same core that has struggled in multiple postseasons after winning the World Series. Yes, there are still perceived holes at second base, in the rotation, and in the bullpen.
But, look at every other team in the NL Central.
The Milwaukee Brewers have one hitter and maybe one starting pitcher in Christian Yelich and Brandon Woodruff. Then two relief pitchers in Devin Williams and Josh Hader. Yeah, Kolton Wong is a solid player, but the rest of their lineup is mostly a breeze and nothing to be too concerned with.
The Cincinnati Reds should still have a decent offense. I would suspect Eugenio Suarez will bounce back, and as a baseball fan I want to see what Tyler Stephenson becomes. I know you’re all concerned about Nicholas Castellanos, but he hit a wall (hard) last year and since most of the NL Central lacks left-handed pitching, his impact won’t be as dramatic as most Cubs fans have believed. They have a couple of decent arms in the rotation, starting with Sonny Gray, but it is only a matter of time before he lands himself on the IL.
The Pittsburgh Pirates, well… they’re still an officially sanctioned team by Major League Baseball.
The St. Louis Cardinals are pretty bare outside Jack Flaherty in their rotation, and outside Paul Goldschmidt and Arenado, their offense is rather pathetic. That’s if you believe Arenado can hit at sea-level.
That leads us back to the Chicago Cubs. A club that has Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Pederson, Willson Contreras, and Ian Happ. This is a lineup of more accomplished players than any other team in the NL Central. This isn’t opinion, this is a plain fact.
The Cubs rotation is one that will need to prove itself. Yes, there is Kyle Hendricks, and Zach Davies has flown under the radar for most of his career. Alec Mills tossed a no-hitter, but he hasn’t excelled as a start yet. Then we don’t know what Arrieta still has in the tank and the rest of the group are either unproven rookies or guys that are looking to re-prove themselves (which isn’t a word I suppose). Then, the bullpen is in a very similar situation.
Good thing the winner of baseball games scores more runs than the other team. The Cubs offense should absolutely score a lot of runs once again. The Cubs’ pitching staff should hold other teams to fewer runs than the offense scores more often than not.
Yes, games will have a certain level of stress that we might not use to in the regular season. But, this team will be in contention for a Central title in 2021. They might be competitive because the rest of the NLC is most non-competitive, but that is why the team was allowed to scale back a bit this season.
This is why hope should spring eternal with this club. Sure, we don’t have that 2016 feeling like we did when Dexter Fowler surprised his teammates that Spring Training. But there will be plenty to be excited about during this 2021 campaign.
