I, like many Chicago Cubs fans, have a lot of issues with the way the eighth inning played out in game two of the NLDS. Unlike most Cubs fans, I have a blog in which I get to let out some of my frustrations on, and at times look for thoughts. It is rare that I can intertwine the two, but today I do get to do both.
In that dreadful eighth inning, the Cubs led the Washington Nationals 3-1. To begin the inning Carl Edwards Jr came in to face a pinch hitter in Adam Lind, thenTrea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Anthony Rendon. A leadoff hit to Lind put the tying run at the plate, but after striking out Turner, Edwards stared down at Bryce Harper.
Edwards appeared shaky and wasn’t able to locate a pitch verse Bryce. Then when way down in the count, Carl hung a curve that floated towards the center of the plate and Harper crushed it into the right field stands for a game-tying home run.
Before I get into the problem I have with this, I want to lay out a couple of pieces of, what I’d consider important information. The first, Carl Edwards Jr has ridiculously good reverse split numbers. Lefties this season have a .437 OPS against Carl – which is extremely good. This isn’t a small sample size thing either. In 109 at bats lefties are slashing .119/.244/.193. Now, Edwards had been mostly great all season, but not in all facets of the game. In Low/Medium leverage situations, Carl had an OPS against of .350, while in high leverage spots that jumped to .786.
The second important piece of information is, the Cubs built their bullpen specifically to face the Washington Nationals lefties. Meaning the Cubs added three left-handers specifically for Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy. Mike Montgomery, Brian Duensing, and Justin Wilson have matchup duties against those hitters. While Montgomery mostly has a different role, Duensing and Wilson are the lefty matchup guys on the team.
The last piece of information, and what I consider the most important, is Bryce Harper’s splits. Now also remember, this is Bryce freaking Harper, one of the top three hitters in the game of baseball. His splits are crazy good against either right handers or left handers. Facing righties, Bryce slashes .322/.433/.654 with 26 HRs. Against lefties Harper slashes .311/.357.445 with 3 HR. His OPS is over 200 points lower against lefties than it is against righties.
So here’s the issue (and I’m sure you’ve begun to pick up on it).
I know Joe Maddon stands behind Carl pitching to Harper, but this was the wrong call. The Cubs bullpen was built to play matchups late in games, specifically against the Nationals lefties. I know Edwards is great against left handed pitchers, I know that. But Carl Edwards Jr is NOT on the same level of a player as Harper. He isn’t within several levels of being on the same level as Bryce. So regardless of how well Carl has pitched against lefties – you throw it out the window when the batter is Bryce Harper.
Joe had to bring in a left handed pitcher here, and the guy I’d tap would have been Duensing. Montgomery is more valuable pitching against several batters over a full inning or more, and Justin Wilson is on the roster to pitch to Daniel Murphy (0-6 against him). I’m not even counting on Brian getting Harper out, since he does hit lefties well, it’s just more probable that the hit isn’t a home run.
Then after the Harper at bat, regardless of what happened, Joe had to tap Wade David for a four or five out save. The eighth inning had the most important sequence in the game, and that is when you have your absolute best in high leverage spots in there. Edwards to Duensing to Davis was the call.
Maybe Brian gives up a double, but then only a run scores (maybe). Hell maybe the Nationals still score five, but either way it changes the entire inning around. I just don’t believe, especially when looking at the analytics, that Joe played the right hand in game two.
Before you say it, yes it is easier to manage from my couch. I just don’t like the fact that the Cubs built their roster for that exact moment but didn’t use it to their advantage.
