Tonight’s game is a must win for the San Francisco Giants, but in a sense it is for the Chicago Cubs as well. Now I know the Cubs have a two games to none lead over the Giants in this best of five series, and the Cubs have the best rotation (per ERA) in the big leagues, you still do not want to give the Giants life.
The Giants are World Champions, having taken home titles in 2010, 2012, and 2014. They have fought back from elimination before, fighting back from a 2-0 deficit against the Cincinnati Reds in the 2012 NLDS. In fact, the Giants have won nine straight elimination games in the playoffs (including their Wild Card matchup against the New York Mets), and have seemed to buck most trends along the way.
If the Giants were to win tonight, they steal a little bit of the momentum back. Then if they find a way to win Game Four, they will have Johnny Cueto and Madison Bumgarner ready for the Game Five winner take all game back at Wrigley Field.
What the Cubs have going for them, cause yes until they are (if they are) unseated, they are the Cubs team in the tournament. In 43 of the 72 times a team has had a 2-0 lead in a best of five there has been a series sweep. 20 more times the team leading the series went on to win, and only nine times has the team that trails in the series come back to win. So the Cubs have a 87.5% chance of winning this series, while the Giants have just a 12.5% chance.
Now onto Game Four…
You cannot look to this game and not talk about pitching. First we have to look at the brilliance of Madison Bumgarner. Madison was the epitome of the Giants season in 2016, started out incredibly hot, was the midseason pick to win the Cy Young Award, and then fizzled through July, August, and most of September. But he was still incredible, finishing the season with a 2.74 ERA, 69 ERA-, 3.24 FIP, 3.54 xFIP, and a 1.02 WHIP. While good, he has earned his money in the postseason, and could very well have already earned enshrinement in the Hall of Fame because of it.
As much as we hear about the 23 consecutive scoreless innings in elimination games, and how he is next to unbeatable, there is a chink in his armor. Most recently (2014, Game 3 NLDS) Madbum was served a loss against the Washington Nationals. He had only pitched 7 innings, gave up 3 runs, while surrendering 6 hits. What could be more telling is that he had 92 pitches when he left after seven innings. The Cubs are incredibly good at working counts, and creating high pitch counts in opposing pitchers. This will be KEY if the Cubs pull this game out.
Jake Arrieta. If you don’t feel a little worried about what Jake Arrieta the Cubs will get tonight, you should either be cut off from the Cubbie Kool-Aid or just haven’t paid too close attention over the past three or so months.
| Month | W | L | W-L% | ERA | G | CG | SHO | SV | IP | H | R | ER | BB | IBB | SO | WHIP |
| April/March | 5 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.00 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 32 | 0.778 |
| May | 4 | 0 | 1.000 | 2.08 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 24 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 43 | 1 |
| June | 3 | 2 | 0.600 | 3.54 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 0 | 36 | 1.357 |
| July | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 4.88 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31.1 | 29 | 17 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 28 | 1.213 |
| August | 4 | 0 | 1.000 | 3.21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33.2 | 17 | 12 | 12 | 16 | 0 | 22 | 0.98 |
| Sept/Oct | 2 | 3 | 0.400 | 4.60 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29.1 | 27 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 29 | 1.295 |
Jake started the 2016 season out like he ended the 2015 season – unhittable. But as the Cubs season progressed, Jake’s success regressed.
Through March, April, and May, Jake was undefeated (9-0) and had a sub 2.00 ERA. Since that time he has been the proud (or not so proud) owner of a 4.06 ERA. Most point to his control, walking 51 batters since the end of May.
While Most do claim he lost his control, I still lean on hitters became more familiar with the way Arrieta pitches and the way a ball tracks through the zone. Since balls travel inside out to right handed hitters when facing Arrieta, more hitters are watching balls that seem to be over the middle of the plate as they eventually end up outside.
While Jake’s struggles are an important fact in this matchup, what could be even more important is Jake’s ability to dominate the West coast.
| Split | W | L | W-L% | ERA | G | GS | GF | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | WHIP |
| LAA-Angel | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.429 |
| SDP-PetCo | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0.625 |
| SFG-AT&T | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.857 |
| LAD-Dodger | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0.111 |
| SFG-AT&T | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.833 |
| Totals | 5 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.26 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 0.571 |
So we are left with this, Jake Arrieta’s complete dominance of the West Coast and Madison Bumgarner’s insane brilliance in the postseason – especially in elimination games.
So the crazy predictions.
This is going to be a old school pitcher’s duel tonight. Jake will be the Jake of old, and Madbum will be the guy he has been in the playoffs. I do think the Giants find a way to get a couple of runs to cross the plate early, and I also think the Cubs find a way to work counts and get Bumgarner’s pitch count up. Madison will end up being removed after seven innings, but the Giants are going to find a way to hold on to this one with a 2-1 victory against the Cubs.
I predicted early on that this series will go four games, and the Cubs will end up winning in Game 4 in San Francisco to move on to the NLCS.
