There are a lot of rumors, stories, and confirmed reports that the Chicago Cubs are unlikely to add a big name free agent this offseason. Well, at least not without trading away money to add money. These newer reports seem to confirm the reports that the Cubs are indeed cash strapped.
With sources confirming ideas that the Cubs have entertained the idea of adding Bryce Harper, even confirming a meeting with Scott Boras, the idea is less and less probable. I don’t know if this is per direction of Tom Ricketts, or if Theo Epstein has eliminated the team from the conversations himself. Theo has expressed, on several occasions, that the Ricketts have entrusted him with these decisions and if there was a move that makes good baseball sense, the money would be available. Which this is why the talk of not having money is somewhat surprising to a lo of fans that have followed the club.
Now, if you comb through the finances, it does make some sense. The Cubs have nine players earning more than $10 million in 2019, four of which will collect $20 million or more.
The idea that the Cubs could move salary, to open up room for a free agent is valiant in theory, but a head scratcher on paper. The candidates to be moved to free up the cash are guys like Tyler Chatwood ($12.5 M) and Jason Heyward ($22.5 M). Maybe, and this would absolutely have to net a big return, Jose Quintana ($10.5 M).
So basically, two almost impossible players to move, and a player that would absolutely hurt the team’s rotation if he is moved. Betting on these guys being moved is like coming down to your last hand in poker with a 3-7 off suit. You really have no choice to go all-in, but you have a 3% chance of winning the pot.
Luckily for the Cubs they are essentially getting an MVP offensive player and an All Star caliber pitcher back in the fold in 2019.
Kris Bryant
The Cubs essentially had 25.8% of the season with a true Kris Bryant. During that time he was ridiculous. He hurt his shoulder on May 19th, and when Cubs’ fans woke up that morning, Bryant was on pace for 42 HR, a .580 SLG, and a .960 OPS. Each of these numbers would have surpassed his production in his MVP season in 2016.
Kris Bryant hur4t his shoulder May 19, hit 5 HR w/a .362 slug rest of season. On 5/19 morn, he projected to .580 slug, .960 OPS, 42 HR. ’16 MVP season he had .554 slug, .921 OPS, 39 HR. Just thinking
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) November 14, 2018
Not only this, Bryant had only struck out 28 times in 180 plate appearances, which computes to a 15% K rate. He was, far and away, the most prolific hitter on the Cubs. This says something as just about a month earlier Javier Baez began his tear which eventually landed him second in the National League in MVP voting.
After May 19th was a completely different story for Bryant however. He went on to hit only 5 HR, strike out in 28.5% of his plate appearances, and slash .249/.339/.378 the rest of the way. This is 62 points less on his average, his OBP was 89 points lower, and his slugging percentage dropped 217 points.
Say what you will, but the shoulder was a HUGE issue for Bryant and the Cubs. Imagine a Bryant producing at 85% and not the 60-70% that he did perform at.
The good news is, Bryant is expected to regain form and be the most valuable Cub again in 2019. A 5.8 WAR player with a .378 wOBA would certainly have helped the Cubs in 2018, and will put them back into the mix in 2019.
Yu Darvish
A source close to Yu Darvish had mentioned that he had prepared harder for the 2018 season than he had ever prepared since coming to the states. Darvish had expected, and wanted, to have the best season of his pro career in 2018, but in hindsight it didn’t turn out that well.
After throwing six innings of two hit ball on May 20th, things looked like that season he expected was about to start. Over the course of his previous four starts, Darvish had an ERA of 3.10, and struck out an astounding 32% of the hitters he faced. But soon after we all learned something was wrong and that the Cubs would place the hurler on the DL with tendinitis. This isn’t a surprising injury for a pitcher this early in a season, and after a brief DL stint he should return without issue.
But that didn’t happen. Complications arose, his stint was extended, and extended again. After a minor league rehab start that appeared to go well, he went to Texas as he still didn’t feel right. Then, without a proper diagnosis of his injury, he left another rehab start after a single inning, which eventually would be his last action of the season.
“I can’t really tell right now,” he said through an interpreter. “It depends on how I feel tomorrow.”
Darvish added “I really want to come back this year, so I’m going to work hard and do my best.”
Steamers also projects a nice season from Darvish in 2019. They expect him to lead the Cubs pitchers in WAR, and lead all Cubs starters in ERA. While it is always tough to predict what a pitcher will do, one thing that will always translate is the ability to miss bats, something Cubs starters just weren’t able to do in 2018. They also lacked the swing and miss stuff in 2017 and 2016 as well.
If Darvish returns to be able to throw 175 innings, he very likely could put up a 180-190 strikeout season. But more importantly, he will solidify a rotation which had some questions once the 2018 season began.
I know there are a lot of fans that didn’t like the Darvish signing to begin with, and the injuries and miscommunication didn’t help things. Here’s the thing, this kid is still incredibly talented. So much so that the smartest executives in all sports decided to go after him, last season, than potentially going after someone like Bryce Harper or Manny Machado or Dallas Keuchel or any number of other quality free agents in the 2019 class.
Even if Darvish doesn’t perform up to his former All Star capabilities, solidifying the rotation by ensuring there is someone that goes out every fifth day will go a long way in helping stabilize the Cubs rotation in 2019.
These two are on the current roster, were on the 2018 roster, but having them around, able to perform at or near peak levels in 2019 will be the difference between sputtering out in the final month or winning a division and making yet another deep playoff run.
