Jake Arrieta has been a machine of terminator-like proportions of late. Actually, for some time now. My wife recently commented that he is so intense he likely scares the batter’s into a strikeout before ever making a pitch. With a stare down like this, I am inclined to believe her.
With Arrieta’s second no-hitter in his last 11 starts and Bob Gibson-like run of 24 starts, the interwebs and blogs are stirring with the “re-examining” or “look back” on the Arrieta trade that brought him(and Pedro Strop), to Chicago. In fact, coming up on Thanksgiving of last year I actually wrote a piece that also eluded to the Arrieta deal being the deal Cubs fans should be most thankful for as well. Now don’t get me wrong, I still whole-heartedly agree that the Arrieta deal is up there with any deal ever made by a Chicago front office. By all accounts, statistically speaking, it is the best. Me being a statistic guy, I should be in full agreement, right?
Well not quite. My second-best “deal to be thankful for” on the top 5 reasons Cubs fans should be thankful for Theo has since super-ceded the Arrieta deal; the deal for Anthony Rizzo.
Now, this is not a statistic-driven decision, which is different for me. I am that a-hole you talk to in different chat groups who counters “opinions” with “statistics that support a different conclusion than that of your opinion”. Ya. That’s me. Sorry.
However, there are so many variables when it comes to the Anthony Rizzo deal that just continues to speak to me years later as I now watch him sell out his cereal and crush home runs as if they are equally easy.
More importantly, I continue to watch our team captain, our leader anchor a Cubs lineup that is certainly on a historic run differential pace to start the year. The “Murderers Row” Yankees team of 1927, often stated to be the greatest team, had a run-differential of 376 for the year. If the Cubs continue their current pace they will shatter that number with a run differential of 580. Even if we were to reduce the amount of games the Cubs played to 154 to match the 1927 Yankees total, the Cubs are still on pace for +551 run differential. So, ya, don’t listen to your White Sox or Cardinals friends, this is currently a team that is pacing historic numbers.
Which leads me back to Anthony Rizzo anchoring our lineup and the trade that brought him here. He was it. The Guy. The trend-setter. The culture-creator. A young man with the utmost respect for work ethic and the game of baseball. A young man that would face beating cancer with a smile on his face, while helping kids try to do the same. How did the Cubs get Anthony Rizzo, again? Let’s re-examine the beautiful, perfect storm that brought him here.
Rizzo was drafted by the Boston Red Sox under the Theo/Jed regime in 2007. In 2010, Hoyer would be with the San Diego Padres and would move his all-star MVP contending 1B Adrian Gonzalez to the Padres in exchange for Anthony Rizzo and a slew of other prospects. That deal had a ripple-effect on the Chicago Cubs that no one in baseball could have possibly seen coming at the time.
It would be the beginning of the end of Theo Epstein in Boston. That summer, the Red Sox would continue changing their approach from an organic-growth roster to that of high-dollar free agent and blockbuster trade acquisitions. Namely, Carl Crawford.
Theo Epstein and the Red Sox would have a historic collapse to end the 2011 season, he would leave Boston, and, with new ownership in tow, join Tom Ricketts in Chicago for an all-out rebuild of the roster from top-to-bottom. Minor league to major league and so on.
Within two days of signing on with the Cubs, Theo Epstein got the band back together in Chicago , with Jed Hoyer making a lateral move of GM of Padres to GM of the Cubs, while Jason McLeod would get on the same plane as his buddy Jed, and sign on as Head of Player scouting and development.
First order of business for Jed. What else would you expect? Continue stalking Anthony Rizzo.
Jed was the guy that had scouted and recommended Rizzo to be drafted in 2007, he was THE GUY who then traded for him in 2010. He was also the guy who may have called him up too early for the Padres in 2011, and for that, we thank him.
Rizzo would have an extremely poor dress rehearsal in the show in 2011, as he came up in June and July and only batted .143 while striking out 30% of the time. Meanwhile, the Cubs had an electric arm in Andrew Cashner who was having some trouble staying healthy, however had looked potentially dominating when he was able to stay on the mound.
With the new regime of Theo, Jed, and Jason all in place, there was one goal about to be implemented. Draft and acquire true-hitters with a solid approach. While the market was still swimming with teams over-paying for pitchers, hitters had become something of an “under-appreciated asset”. You could acquire a young, controllable hitter much easier than a young, controllable pitcher. So when the Cubs called the Padres to discuss a one-for-one swap it didn’t take long for San Diego to agree.
Even though fans were clamoring for a big-money signing of Prince Fielder or waiting on the “Bryan Lahair train” to come and save the Cubs franchise, the new front-office brass would have the brass balls enough to trade a young, controllable starting pitcher for a hitter who had struggled mightily in limited time.
So that’s how we got here. Now what has happened since then, you ask?
Anthony Rizzo is a bonafide superstar. He’s got his own commercials, his own cereal, but most importantly, he has one hell-of-a stick at the dish.
In the last two years he has been in the top-10 in voting for the NL MVP (and that includes a 2014 last place NL Central team), he has been good for 11.2 WARP, and he has owned a stat line at the plate of :
| .278 | .386 | .524 | .391 | 150 |
This is while striking out only 16% of the time and walking nearly 12% of the time. Additionally, as of this past weekend he had the most home runs since 2013 in the National League. He has been the anchor.
More importantly, though, he has been THE leader. Whether it be that work-ethic we talked about which has helped reduce his strikeouts percentage from 30% in 49 games with the Padres in 2011 all the way down to a minuscule 15% in 2015 and 14% through the first 19 games this season, or whether it be when he put the NL Central on notice that the Cubs were not to be pushed around any more:
(and he’s made them pay on the field ever since)
Now don’t get me wrong, Andrew Cashner has not been bad since leaving the Cubs by any means. By all accounts, he has been a fine number 3 or number 4 starter in the Major Leagues, totaling 4.6 WARP over the last 2 seasons. He just hasn’t been even close to the realm of having an Anthony Rizzo-type impact.
Everything that had to happen for the Cubs to get Anthony Rizzo makes his ascension and the Cubs ascension seem almost kismet.
A life-long Bostoner in Theo Epstein leaving after going against his own conventional wisdom during the 2010 offseason before experiencing one of the worst collapses in MLB history(to current Cubs manager Joe Maddon, mind you) to end 2011. Jed and Jason hopping on a plane within 48 hours to join their boy in the windy city. Jed completing his love affair of Anthony Rizzo with one final trade taking place. It may not had been fate, but it was certainly more than just chance.
I get it. The Arrieta trade will likely go down as one of the most lopsided of any team in history, ever. On par with some of the Cubs horrendous trades involving Josh Donaldson, Chris Archer, and (gulp) Lou Brock. Statistically-speaking the Arrieta deal takes the cake, ice cream, and sprinkles.
However, if I can adjust my thinking away from statistics on this one and give a heavy-weighted advantage to the intangibles of Anthony Rizzo, anyone can. And let’s not forget, also, that the Cubs have him locked up on what will likely be the most team-friendly contract of any position player post arbitration-eligible through 2021.
Yes, Jake Arrieta’s trade has been a thing of magnificent beauty. The Anthony Rizzo trade, however, was a thing of absolute majesty that transformed the culture of the Chicago Cubs for years to come.
