Edit: Jon Heyman clarified statements on Twitter Thursday morning.
This headline is something that could have been written two years ago about Bryce Harper and the Cubs. At least when you considered all the social media posts with Harper and his baseball bff Kris Bryant, his affinity for Chicago, and his dog named Wrigley. The union between the Cubs and Harper are as obvious as Ross and Rachel, Dawson and Joey, Grey and McDreamy (or McSteamy, whichever one was a “Cubs fan”).
So of course there was the Instagram bro-mance that we all followed along to, the dog, the every little occasion Bryant and Harper talked on the field. We jumped in, feet first hoping that the good guy will get the girl (er, guy in this scenario). When one of the league’s biggest favorites to compete for an NL title is rumored to be in on the game’s best and most intriguing free agent since Barry Bonds – it’s no wonder every website, newspaper, Twitter account, and fan page dedicated to the Cubs is talking non-stop about Harper.
Here is what we know.
The Cubs, who claim to not have any money available, have continued to proclaim they don’t have budget, no money, and need to be creative in order to make any moves. But, a team with no money available, had a three hour meeting with Harper, his wife Kayla Harper, and agent Scott Boras. They planned this meeting knowing damn well that Harper is seeking the biggest deal in baseball history.
We also know that Boras and the Harper’s were securing meetings during the Winter Meetings with only serious partners. Like that ad you see in the paper for some awesome item that you know is too much, but you want to know how much it is, but you come across that last line in the ad saying “serious inquiries only,” the Cubs blew right past that warning and are absolutely serious. So serious they have asked Boras to call them before they sign any deal.
Boras and the Harper’s have to have interest in the Cubs, and they Cubs absolutely have interest in Harper. They both know it. If Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have big enough balls to tell Boras and Harper to call them last, they know Harper wants to be in Chicago, and they are telling Boras and Harper that they want him there too.
“Sources say Epstein urged them to wait before accepting an offer from another team until the Cubs had a chance to try to move some payroll off the books and check again with ownership. Wittenmyer penned. “Not much has changed in that regard, either, since then — though Boras’ track record with top free agents suggests Harper might be on the market well into January, if not longer.”
Listen, we know that the Cubs will likely need to shed payroll to get a deal done. It isn’t like the club couldn’t take on his salary, as is, but while paying a luxury tax ins’t a huge burden to an organization which was purchased for $700 million in 2009 (per Forbes) is now worth nearly $3 billion. What is troublesome is the compensation draft pick and international money penalties for an executive team which wrote the book on using those assets to build immensely successful baseball organizations.
We have seen Epstein and Hoyer operate like this in the past. They told Jake Arrieta the same, and to their credit, offered the same back to Arrieta and Boras when they moved ahead with Yu Darvish. This is a sales tactic I have used in my personal life, when involved with a customer that is shopping around, I have just asked them to reach out to me before a decision is made, and we will do whatever needed to win their business.
It is this courtship, as well as the state of the Cubs roster and previous season’s finish, which leads myself and many others to believe that Harper will be playing home games in Wrigley.
Are the @Cubs and @Dodgers the favorites for Bryce Harper at this point? #MLBNow pic.twitter.com/8wP3vhZ0Ch
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 26, 2018
Now, those Dodgers you say…
Yes, they cleared space, but as Jon Heyman mentions, their ownership team has not shown the intent on spending huge for free agents. They have operated with a very conservative model, and have done a lot of work to get themselves below the luxury tax. There are bigger expectations around the league that the Dodgers would rather look to acquiring Corey Kluber and JT Realmuto than add 35 plus million dollars to the payroll they’ve worked so hard on. In fact, it sounds like the Dodgers have had several discussions looking to trade for Kluber by trading top prospect Alex Verdugo and then working a deal with the Detroit Tigers for Nicholas Castellanos. If LA shed around $25 million in trading Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig, those two players (Kluber and Castellanos) would bring $24 million right back.
The guys on MLB Network were discussing how Harper would likely need to take a shorter-term deal to sign in LA, but I think that is also the case in Chicago. He might not get a 10 year contract if he wants to sign with either the Cubs or Dodgers, he may get that with some other teams involved. So this really could be a situation where Harper will absolutely need to choose between money or winning.
Don’t get this wrong, Harper will make enough money for three generations of Harper’s to never worry about finances. The question will become, does he want a deal that offers, say, $38-40 million a season, but is a four to six year contract (with the possibility to opt out) and be able to win, or only look at the 10 year, $35 million a season offers we all expected him to earn?
I see too much good in him looking towards a shorter deal right now. Like Heyman and the guys mentioned, he can very much do the Lebron James approach here. He signs a shorter deal to chase a title, while also relying on his marketability in a city like Chicago, or like Los Angeles to earn some income on the side. Right now, like it or not, Harper is the most recognizable player in the game today, and putting him on a roster ready to win will allow him to catapult into an even bigger contract in four to six seasons. He can then use that next deal, similar to James, to set himself up for his career after the game, whatever that may be.
This isn’t too far-fetched, either. With the CBA set to expire, and the likes of Bryant, Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts, and Mike Trout nearing their first free agency’s, a shorter deal will one, help those players earn more and two, allow Harper to dip back in after those mega-stars leapfrog his deal this offseason.
There are a ton of people that say the Cubs will absolutely need to trade Jason Heyward for this to work. I agree, that is a huge part of this puzzle, but I don’t think it is an absolute piece, at least not before a deal is done. It is preferred, from ownership on down, but the Cubs can manage both on the roster, and it doesn’t change much of anything at all. Sure it kicks the organization into that last tier of the luxury tax, and all the awful implications of the tax would come true. But, that doesn’t stop the Cubs from being able to re-sign anyone. It doesn’t change their ability to add at the deadline, it doesn’t stop them from adding next offseason or the one after that, it doesn’t change anything at all. The financial handcuffs are mostly superficial, they sort of exist, but it isn’t impossible for the club to open the checkbook.
There isn’t a world that exists that I don’t see the Cubs being a serious suitor till the end of Harper’s free agency. I still believe he ends up a Cub, and until proven otherwise I am going on with that belief.
