This year was supposed to be about change for the Chicago Cubs. A change from supporting the current core and a win at all costs strategy, to one of focusing on the 2025 and beyond roster. But when the calendar changed to May, the Cubs entire outlook might have changed.
So far in May, the Cubs are playing .667 baseball. When transposed across all 42 games, this would mark the best winning percentage in baseball.
What’s more, the Cubs have been doing this shorthanded. They’ve lost time with guys like Nico Hoerner, Joc Pederson, Jake Marisnick, Jake Arrieta, Javier Baez, and most recently Anthony Rizzo (and maybe now Jason Heyward?). This many injuries to players expected to contribute would sink most teams, but most teams don’t have a Kris Bryant they can plug in anywhere on the diamond playing MVP worthy baseball.
Their play alone isn’t enough to get management (or more importantly, ownership) to financially support this roster. Their play may get Jed Hoyer to pump the brakes on any trades, selling off core players. But it won’t push Tom Ricketts to add budget to the 2021 roster mid-season.
What will is increased revenue. The type of increases revenue that comes with increases ticket sales.
That is now happening. I received, just like many of you, an email from the Cubs advertising how their increased capacity tickets are on sale. The Cubs opened up a section for fully vaccinated fans. There are legitimate expectations that Wrigley Field will be back to maximum capacity by the end of the season.
Now, I’ve mentioned a lot on this site and in other social settings that player salaries aren’t really budgeted from ticket revenue. That is a concept that died in the early 2000s as teams began realizing profits from streaming, increased TV revenues, and other sources. But, in absence of $80 plus million a season, plus concessions, plus souvenir sales – player budgets naturally decreased.
But, if the Cubs are going to realize more ticket sales than they expected at the start of the season, their ability to spend is also increasing.
Regardless of what happens there, the Cubs have increased their odds of winning in 2021. Now, they’re still middle of the pack in terms of Vegas odds. Sitting at 50 to 1, they’d still be a longshot. But, if you’re looking to water some cash, the Cubs might be a good but at 50/1.
Interestingly, the pandemic has probably helped one industry in Illinois. The State of Illinois is on pace for $7 billion in wagers this year, and with the added Draftkings Sportsbook at Wrigley, the Cubs have another revenue stream.
If the Cubs continue their hot play through June, and prove to be in the mix in July, this will be a very different season than what some expected. This club, competitively and financially, can find the means to be buyers in July and not sellers. With some additions to the roster, they can even increase their odds of winning a World Series in 2021.
Worst case, their play should allow management the flexibility to keep some of these stars past the 2021 season.
As the Cubs heat up, remember that you can bet on MLB baseball and more thanks to legal Iowa sports betting at Iowa BetRivers Sportsbook!
