News is starting to get out that the Chicago Cubs and Anthony Rizzo have progressed to the point of an actual extension offer. Unfortunately, that offer wasn’t quite what Rizzo and his agent Marc Pollack were expecting. From sources, Rizzo is expecting nine-digits and the Cubs are falling somewhere short of that number. Essentially, the Cubs low balled Rizzo, there’s no way around that.
There is some growing sense that the Cubs and Rizzo could extend talks – as long as they have positive momentum – into the season. This is a change from Rizzo’s earlier stance.
Rizzo wants to play here his entire career, and he has stood firm on the opening day deadline. If this does trickle into the season, they will wait till the end of the year to pick it up. If they don’t work it out during the Cubs exclusive signing period, he will test free agency.
“We feel we’ve given a lot during this process here,” Rizzo said. “I think with the Opening Day deadline, we feel really strong about it. We’ve had enough time to talk and try to figure it out. Once the season starts, for me, personally, it’s [time to] focus on baseball. If my mind isn’t 100% on baseball and it’s elsewhere? It’s hard enough to play.”
But, dang man… the organization certainly is making this difficult. Jon Heyman suggests that there is a decent chance this gets done, but in hearing how far apart the sides are, I don’t know how confident some should be?
per @thekapman & other sources, the chicago cubs “low balled” rizzo w/ their extension offer. the offer was most likely around half the dollar amount of what goldschmidt got (5, $130 mil). that is absolutely unacceptable & incredibly disheartening
— DOM (@DOM_Frederic) March 29, 2021
Paul Goldschmidt signed his five-year extension when he was 31-years-old. Rizzo, who is entering his age-31 season, might not warrant the $130 million Goldy got but he certainly has played up to a $100 million deal. If the Cubs only offered him around $65 to $70 million, there is still quite a bit to work out.
“Obviously, there’s been talks and whatnot,” Rizzo said, “but it doesn’t look like, really, at this time, anything is going to be finalized.”
It would seem the Cubs are somewhere in the three year $22 million per season range for Rizzo. Or at least I kinda hope that’s where they are at since $13 million for five years or $16.25m for four seems way too far off for Rizzo’s services. This should suggest that the Cubs would have to add two more years at $22 to get in the range of what Rizzo was expecting ($110 million). Or just add another season at $25m a season. Is that doable? Maybe? I have seen teams reluctantly add another year, but adding two just doesn’t sound feasible before the 2021 season starts.
““I can’t tell you what the future holds,” Rizzo said. “This will be a special year. Every year is special to me. …
“I’ve just been open with how I would love to stay here and my desire to stay here and continue to play for the Chicago Cubs. It has been an amazing ride. I don’t think it’s over yet, but it’s just part of the business. And you need to separate it, because every good business person will tell you there are no friendships in business.””
It is sounding like the Cubs and both Javier Baez and Kris Bryant are so far off on numbers that they are no where near a deal.
UPDATE: The Chicago Cubs are still working on extending Anthony Rizzo and would love to get it done while there’s no likelihood for a new deal anytime soon for Baez or Bryant, per @JonHeyman. #Cubs pic.twitter.com/EXCOocUgsF
— Cubs Zone (@CubsZone) March 29, 2021
I will get to Baez in a bit, but Bryant’s deal should be something to prioritize. I love Bryant, and it is no secret that I have been in contact with Bryant’s camp. But if there was ever the time for the Cubs to lock him down, it is now. He’s coming off an injury-riddled 2020, coming off a bounce-back in 2019 after his 2018 season which he was also injured much of the year. He has never been offered that deal “north of $200 million” as one loudmouth radio host in Chicago suggests, and there could be a deal to be struck. The Cubs wouldn’t be off base to offer something in the four-years $90-$100 million range, or essentially the deal Josh Donaldson signed with the Minnesota Twins.
I made the comp to Donaldson in the past, and Bryant and his numbers are eerily similar. I have also suggested that the Cubs should Toews/Kane Bryzzo, signing both to the equal deal over the equal amount of time. To quote Ian Happ, if the Cubs tossed a four-year, $100m to Rizzo and that same pact to KB, “who says no?”
Baez is a lot trickier. He is uber popular, in Chicago and across MLB. He has had one near-MVP season and another pretty good offensive campaign. But the rest of his career he has been a below average offensive performer (hurts, but true).
Baez is coming off a poor 2020 (which I hate validating anyone’s personal performance in 2020), he finished 2019 injured, fell off in September 2018, and before that was an average at best performer. Defensively, he could likely be a Gold Glove finalist at three positions.
Baez has seen Fernando Tatis Jr. receive a contract extension worth $340 million after playing in only 143 games and 629 plate appearances. There is also rumors of his friend, Francisco Lindor discussing an extension with the New York Mets north of $300 million.
New York Mets star Francisco Lindor and team owner Steve Cohen got together for dinner last night as the deadline for a contract extension nears, sources tell ESPN. There remains hope something will get done before the Opening Day deadline Lindor set. Would be for $300M-plus.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 28, 2021
So, in Baez’s head, he is also worth something in that range, right?
Personally I see him comped closer to a mix of Andrelton Simmons and maybe Jorge Polanco than Tatis Jr. or Lindor. In fact, several have rumored the idea that Baez could find his way to the Mets. If that were to happen, Baez wouldn’t play shortstop.
I don’t “know” what Baez is expecting in negotiations, but it shouldn’t be anything more than the $100 million that is suggested for either Bryant and Rizzo.
Perdictions
Here is how I think things will shake.
- Cubs and Rizzo find a compromise early in 2021 and he signs
- Cubs do not discuss an extension with Bryant, he becomes a free agent and signs something in the $100-160 range between four and six years
- Cubs try with Baez but never come near his expectations, Baez becomes a free agent at the end of 2021, finds a six year deal in the $140 range
This last part is merely opinion, take it with what you will. In any event, this Cubs organization has been lowballing their players for years believing that will get things done. It may, if they have young players that want the security over the chance that they’ll never see that money again. Or even if a player is aging and they simply want to stay here and there’s mutual interest.
But when you have players that have either already taken less to play here, or have already won a championship, the expectation that they will simply accept less is idiotic. Sure, if they all walk the Cubs can come out and say, “hey, we tried!”
If I wasn’t so much a Cubs fan, I would almost wish that they all just walked to show Jed Hoyer and the Ricketts that you do indeed have to pay the guys that got you here.
