I have written about Sonny Gray before, and I try and caution the Chicago Cubs to refrain from acquiring him. It isn’t because I don’t like the guy, nor is it because I don’t believe he is a good pitcher. I think quite the contrary. He is good and from all accounts, he’s a decent dude. So why wouldn’t I want a guy that is carrying a 3.72 ERA a 1.157 WHIP with 9 Quality Starts this season?
Because his arm will not hold up.
To set the scene a bit more, back in 2015 I really coveted Gray, like really coveted him. He was having a potentially great season, ERA under 3, and was on pace for more than 200 innings. Being a writer, and wanting to put up a case to acquire Gray, I mostly found reasons not to.
Billy Beane
The first was Billy Beane. Yes, the Cubs got a steal when they sent Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to Oakland and got Billy McKinney and Addison Russell in return. But Billy’s track record of trading away players is a lot more accomplished than his record for trading for players – especially pitching. Billy has a very keen idea of when to trade pitching away, and it’s usually just when their arm is toast. Dealing guys like Dan Haren, Mark Mulder, Ben Grieve among others, just before their careers went up in smoke (Haren actually pitched well for a couple years after the trade).
Beane isn’t an idiot, and he has shown that time-in-time again in his dealings. But there was still the allure of adding a kid with that much talent, so I looked further.
The Inverted-W
Isn’t an inverted-w just an M? And why is a letter a reason to not go after Sonny Gray?
Well, the “Inverted-W” is a type of pitching delivery/mechanics. This is when a pitcher’s elbows float above their shoulders during delivery (try it, it is actually very uncomfortable). This causes additional stress on the shoulders, which over time causes concern for injury. Mark Prior was an “Inverted-W” guy.
If you look closely, you can see Prior’s elbows flare up higher than his shoulders, this causes additional torque, which causes additional stress, causing the potential for injury. Sonny Gray has a similar delivery.
There are two things that work against Gray, first is that “Inverted-W” delivery, the second (and it might be attributed to the delivery) is a timing issue. As Chris O’Leary, who has worked with college, minor league, and even major league organizations, explains, Gray is a ticking time bomb.
“By holding the Inverted W into foot plant, and not just passing through the position, Sonny Gray ensures that his arm will not be in a safe position when his shoulders start to rotate.”
The “Inverted-W” has added velocity to a lot of pitchers, but that has come at a huge cost – Tommy John Surgery. We once thought that sliders and curveballs were to blame for the increased arm injuries in baseball. I believe that this is also why there are fewer pitchers that feature curveballs in today’s game. The fact is, and the science is, it was actually the fastball that has been injuring arms. The timing issues that are caused by improper mechanics (Inverted-W, etc) are causing these issues – along with the abnormal strain throwing a ball does to one’s arm.
The Return
This is the last bit which alarms me. The Cubs have previously dealt away their biggest assets from their minor league system, which means to acquire Gray it will take someone from the current big league roster. Many will say they are ok dealing a couple of the players – Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora – to name a few. I can see the Cubs dealing either Russell or Baez, but I think it would be a mistake. Russell, who has struggled much of 2017, could be dealt, but I am now unsure if he could centerpiece a deal for a cost controlled good pitcher.
Russell, who has struggled much of 2017, could be dealt, but I am now unsure if he could centerpiece a deal for a cost controlled good pitcher. Baez would naturally slide into the shortstop position, however, the Cubs would lose some of the flexibility in their day-to-day lineups. The other issue is, Oakland already has too many shortstops. With Marcus Semien and Franklin Barreto already young and talented players – adding Addison to that mix might not be appealing to Billy Beane and the A’s.
So that then points to Kyle Schwarber, which although it baffles me would appease a lot of Cubs fans. Kyle would be an instant DH for the A’s, which could be his best position. The problem here is they would be selling low on Schwarber. If he continues his recent production throughout the rest of the season, he will be worth a ton more in the offseason. This, however, is all hearsay, since the Cubs aren’t trading him at all.
Not only is Kyle a pillar of the franchise, the only real player that they had to backfill left field was Eloy Jiminez, and he is now belting home runs for the Chicago White Sox organization.
To be honest the only real options the Cubs have are Ian Happ and Jeimer Candelario. I might be the only Cubs fan not 100% sold on Happ, but I would trade him for Gray.
No, there are better options out there, like Marcus Stroman or Michael Fulmer.
Hopefully the Cubs brass heed this warning and steer far, far away from Sonny Gray.
