EDIT: The Cubs have now announced the roster and this is spot on. They also announced the Game 1 starter, and again, this was spot on.
Onward and upward. After a phenomenal NLDS against the Washington Nationals, the Chicago Cubs are getting on a plane traveling to Los Angeles. After winning perhaps the weirdest playoff game I’ve seen, the Cubs have to start preparing for the Dodgers.
Part of that preparation is building a competitive roster. While most of the roster is decided before a pen is lifted, but there are a few question marks remaining.
Starting Pitching
Jon Lester
Jake Arrieta
Kyle Hendricks
Jose Quintana
John Lackey
Yes, for the second consecutive series the Cubs will carry all five starters. This is 100% out of necessity too. Here is how I believe they will line up.
Game 1 – Jose Quintana
Quintana basically threw a bullpen session on Thursday night’s NLDS clinching game. He warmed in the pen for an inning, then threw 12 high-stress pitches. Since he last pitched on Monday, he will have a full five days “rest.”
Game 2 – John Lackey
My initial reaction was Lackey pitching the LS opener. But with the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw going for LA, Quintana gives the Cubs a better shot at the first game. Lackey, in turn, will be a better matchup against anyone else on the Dodgers staff, but the hopes would be Q can give the pen a much-needed break.
Game 3 – Jon Lester
Seems like forever since Lester made a start, and this one will come 10 days after his last start, and six days after his 55-pitch relief appearance on Wednesday. He will be plenty rested and even gets that extra travel day in between games two and three. Lester has also been a little better at Wrigley this season, so there’s that. This would likely line Jon up for a potential game 7 (if necessary).
Game 4 – Depends
Either Jake Arrieta or Kyle Hendricks will get the nod here, and I think it depends on how the series has gone to this point. If the Cubs are down 0-3 or 1-2, I expect Hendricks here. If the Cubs are up, Arrieta is throwing.
Game 5 & 6* – Again, depends
Whoever doesn’t start between Arrieta and Hendricks in game four, starts the fifth game. Then the Cubs probably turn back to Quintana in Game 6.
Game 7* – Jon Lester
This would be Jonny’s ballgame. He’s the most experienced and most successful postseason pitcher on either the Cubs or Dodgers roster.
* if necessary, of course
Roster 5 of 25
Relievers
Mike Montgomery LHP
Brian Duensing LHP
Pedro Strop RHP
Carl Edwards Jr RHP
Wade Davis RHP
These are my locks to make the CS roster. Mind you, Lackey will effectively become a right-handed reliever by the time the series comes to Chicago. This would give the Cubs four righties in the pen.
Roster 10 of 25
Catchers
No surprises here. I don’t believe Rene Rivera is added to the roster. I would think Contreras gets a day off at some point in this series, or he is put into Left while Avila gets a start behind the dish. I’ve seen some mention it would be Game 1, but tossing Avila in here to face Kershaw isn’t the best of ideas.
Roster 12 of 25
Infielders
Anthony Rizzo 1B
Ben Zobrist 2B/OF
Javier Baez 2B
Addison Russell SS
Kris Bryant 3B
There should be absolutely no surprises here. Expect Javy Baez to get the majority of the starts at second base and Ben Zobrist will end up flipping between left field and right much like the NLDS.
Roster 17 of 25
Outfielders
Kyle Schwarber LF
Jon Jay CF
Albert Almora Jr. CF
Jason Heyward RF
Ian Happ OF
Again, there really shouldn’t be a surprise with these four. When you add Zobrist that makes a fifth outfielder for matchup purposes. Expect Almora to be in center when there is a lefty, and Zobrist will likely be in right in those instances as well (which isn’t a great idea). Schwarber will see time against mostly right-handers, most notably Yu Darvish (RH .194 AVG 11 HR LH .262 16 HR).
Roster 22 of 25
Remaining Spots
Tommy La Stella IF
Leonys Martin OF
Hector Rondon RHP
Tommy La Stella offers a great bat off the bench and a guy that can make contact. He’s especially good against velocity, and I can see him giving Kenley Jansen fits late in games. He probably doesn’t need to bring his glove to LA, I don’t believe he will see too much time on defense. Leonys Martin, on the other hand, will need his glove and perhaps not his bat. He will be that late inning defensive replacement on the corners (ahem, left). He could very well get some pinch running calls too.
Hector will replace Justin Wilson, who other than some mop-up action shouldn’t have been on the roster at all. I had thought he was going to be a specialist for Daniel Murphy, but he didn’t even see time against him. It just goes to prove one of my earlier points, he was just on this roster because Theo Epstein wanted him there. Hector will get the opportunity to prove that he has “it” again. Expect him in early situations, and then getting the chance to work himself back into later opportunities if he has success.
