The Chicago Cubs aren’t popping any corks yet, but things are beginning to look bleak for anyone attempting to challenge them. I don’t like counting teams out too early, but the Cubs have the chance to put the St Louis Cardinals in a very tough spot if they sweep.
Currently the Cubs have a 5-game lead on the Cardinals, and the Milwaukee Brewers have crept back into second place. But even the Brewers will have an extremely tough time creeping back to unseat the Northsiders.
With #Brewers down 4 with 14 to play, even if Cubs went 7-7, #Brewers would have to go 11-3 just to tie them. That's how tough it is.
— Tom (@Haudricourt) September 17, 2017
The Cardinals have an even bigger hill to climb, having to go 12-2 down the stretch if the Cubs perform at a .500 clip.
Fangraphs lists the Cubs chance of making the playoffs at 96% and their odds of winning the Central at 95.1%. Consequently, the Cardinals and Brewers have a 6.1% and 6.3% chance, respectively.
Here is how each team’s remain schedule plays out.
So while the Cubs have the toughest remaining schedule, and eight games remaining against the Cardinals and Brewers, I wouldn’t put money on either underdog. Oh, and the Cubs expect to have Jake Arrieta back next weekend too.
One concern, the Cubs haven’t faired very well against the Brewers (7-8) and have lost five of the last seven contests. But before Milwaukee, the Tampa Bay Rays could present a trap series for the Cubs. Even without that possibility, the Cubs are just 4-7 against the Rays over their lifetime.
If the Cubs were to lose three (or God forbid four) against Milwaukee, then drop the two against the Rays, that could open the door for The Brewers. That sort of talk is rare, exceptionally rare, as in the Wild Card era not too many teams have even overcome a 5-game deficit in the second half – let alone the last couple weeks of a season.
Notable September Comebacks
Just so we don’t get too overconfident, here’s a list of notable September comebacks.
1938 Chicago Cubs – won 22 of 29 games to eclipse a 9-game lead to pass up the Pittsburgh Pirates by two games.
1951 New York Giants – closed a 7-game deficit in the final month to tie the Brooklyn Dodgers. They beat the Dodgers in game three of the playoff on Bobby Thompson’s “Shot heard round the world.”
1964 St Louis Cardinals – the Cards would ride Bob Gibson and Tim McCarver for a 20-10 record down the stretch to erase a 7 1/2 game lead where they sat in fourth place.
1974 Baltimore Orioles – the Orioles saw themselves in third place, and when the Yankees took off, going 20-11, it would take a special ending to catch them. Well behind Dave McNally, Mike Cuellar, Jim Palmer and Ross Grimsley each owning a 1.91, 1.93, 2.22 and 2.25 ERA, respectfully, Baltimore went 25-6 winning the division by two games.
1995 Seattle Mariners – on September 12th the Mariners were in fourth place and were 6-games out. They would then rip off 11 of their next 12 to take the division lead. Eventually the Anaheim Angels would catch them, to fall to Seattle in the one-game playoff.
2013 Cleveland Indians – in one of the more remarkable comebacks, Cleveland needed a 21-6 September which included a 10-game winning streak to take the Wild Card spot from the Texas Rangers.
It isn’t impossible, but over the rich history of the game, not many The season is winding down, and Cubs are in the driver’s seat, but there is still some interesting baseball still to be played.
