Salacious you say! Yeah, I’m sorry. Please forgive me. But the completely expected news for today is that the Chicago Cubs reached one-year agreements with Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, and Zach Davies. This avoids arbitration.
One thing to note. MLB Trade Rumors gave three projections for the 2021 arbitration process. One that considers only the 60-game season. One that extrapolates 2020 production across a full 162-game campaign. The last one is built more for first-timers, using their algorithm to determine a typical increase and providing 37% of that money (37% representing how many games were played). In this arbitration season, it seems as if MLB teams have used the second method in determining player salaries.
The biggest fish in the bunch, Kris Bryant settled for $19.5 million. While this might be astonishing to some, MLB Trade Rumors put Bryant at $18.6m. It seems the Cubs beefed this number a bit. KB’s pre-COVID salary was $18.6 million, and it is a pretty big insult for a player to go backward in pay (might as well non-tender them) and they almost always get a bump. Perhaps the Cubs acted in good faith on this one, knowing that Bryant is worth that extra million bucks anyway.
Baez, to me, is always in an interesting story with regard to his salary. There is a lot of guesswork when it comes to his offensive production. If he is closer to the 2018/19 Baez, he’s worth $20 million. But if he is just an elite defender that has streaks of offensive brilliance (as he’s been his whole career) then he’s a $15 million a year type of guy. Perhaps this has been the holdup in any extension talks? Baez sees himself as the 2018 Baez and the Cubs see him as the guy he’s been most of his career. Regardless, Baez earns $11.65m for the 2021 season, which is less than the MLBTR number ($11.9m).
Contreras is another that took a bit less than his projected number. He settled for $6.65m for the 2021 season (he has one additional year of control). MLBTR suggested that Willson would earn $7.4m in 2021, which is $750k more than his settled amount. If you’re scoring at home, Baez and Contreras settled for a combined $1 million less than their projected numbers.
The last player the Cubs agreed with is their newcomer, Zach Davies. Now, here’s a bit of a bargain, with Davies settling at $8.63m for this season. If you recall, Yu Darvish (who Davies was traded for) was set to earn $22m in 2021 and had an average AAV of $21m. MLBTR projected Davies at $10.6m, essentially saving the Cubs another $2m (almost) from the $11m they were set to relieve themselves of.
One notable… The Cubs Ian Happ was a first-time eligible player. MLBTR figured Happ would earn $2.26m in this round. So far, we have not heard about Happ and it appears that the Cubs and Happ have not agreed to 2021 terms.
Now starts the unfortunate part of the arbitration process.
Happ and the Cubs will go to a hearing, where Happ (and his representatives) will provide their salary number to the arbitration officer and the Cubs will provide their number. Happ will then present a case as to why he’s worth what he believes he is worth. Then the Cubs will list everything wrong with Happ’s game, showing the judge why they shouldn’t pay what he suggests. This is an especially painful process for the player, and it can lead to long-lasting issues between the player and the team.
Since the 2012 season, there has only been one player (Justin Grimm) who took the Cubs to a hearing. He was later released. In the entire history of the Cubs, I can only remember one other player going to arbitration. I cannot remember who (Google is failing me at the moment as well).
Personally, I can see the Cubs and Happ using this time to catapult into an extension. They’ve given more money to a lesser player in David Bote, and with the reduction in overall salary (nearly$80 million for the 2020 season) adding a few extra bucks to this year’s roster isn’t going to hurt anything, especially on a player that can still be young enough to be part of the next window (2024ish). Time will tell.
