So…yeah.
Headlined by Jon Lester and 2015 Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta, the 2016 projected Cubs starting rotation with John Lackey, Kyle Hendricks, Jason Hammel has been picked by USA Today as the top starting rotation heading into the 2016 season.
USA Today released yesterday its ranking of each MLB pitching rotation from 30 down to good ol’ number one. In a shock to – honestly – everyone, the Cubs were ranked first ahead of the four-headed monster dressed in Mets’ uniforms.
Now, be mindful that these rankings do not matter one bit in how the 2016 Chicago Cubs do this year. However, it does serve as a reminder of how far this organization has come the last seven years and how the time could be now.
In his annual team rankings, available to ESPN Insiders only, Buster Olney ranked the Cubs fourth in pitching rotations. In doing so, the Mets were “clearly” the leaders in that category. It’s hard to disagree; Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz is downright dirtier than a nine-year old pair of tennis shoes soaking in a mud pile. Ew.
For USA Today, Ted Berg ranked the rival Cardinals fifth, citing their loss of John Lackey. Another team similar to the Mets loaded with young pitching talent is the Indians, who came in at fourth. Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg lead the Nationals in the third spot. Then, to much surprise, he named the Mets as second.
He heavily references the depth of the Cubs rotation, which is, indeed, true. With the five already named, the North Siders re-signed Trevor Cahill and agreed to arbitration terms with Clayton Richard and Travis Wood, along with trading for Adam Warren.
To point out specific stats to show you how good the rotation was last season, Lester had a 117 ERA+. His FIP of 2.92 is impressive, and lets you ignore the 3.34 ERA, which isn’t even bad.
Lackey, who was with the Cardinals last season, threw over 200 innings for the first time since 2010. His 2.77 ERA was pretty great, and arguably was the Cardinals’ team MVP for the entire season.
After pitching to the tune of a 154 ERA+ and 1.083 WHIP in 13 starts totaling just over 80 innings in 2014, Hendricks made 32 starts last season. Although he wasn’t as good, over the course of the entire season he had a 3.36 FIP (only .04 worse than 2014) and had a much higher strikeout rate (8.4 compared to 5.3) in 180 innings of work.
Hammel’s final stats don’t give justice to how good he was in the first half of the season. Also, his final stats don’t give justice to how bad he was in the second half the season. Read those carefully. For the entire 2015 year, Hammel still finished with a 105 ERA+ and had a 4.3 K:BB. Overall, he was solid. But those last couple months were brutal after he injured his lower-half. If he stays healthy, I think we’ll see him pitch similarly to his first half numbers from 2015.
Reminder: this is to help us remember how far the team, specifically the pitching staff, has come. The only guy out of these eight who was on the team in 2012 was Wood. They’ve built from the outside, just the opposite of how they’ve handled their offensive load.
I think the Mets have, by far, the best rotation – if we’re going to actually rank them. But, I do believe there’s a solid argument to be made for the Cubs at number two. In the same rankings by Berg, he lists the Rays at number 13, which just seems interesting because of who is in that pitching rotation. It’s especially mindful because that’s who the Cubs have been linked to several times this off-season.
It’s important to keep in mind to not let this get to your head. There’s still going to be some unfortunate mishaps this season. Hammel could re-injure himself, or maybe Arrieta posts a 3.00 ERA or something totally insane like that. You just got to remember to stay grounded. Yes, the pitching rotation is projected to be one of the best, as it should.
And it’s pretty darn exciting.
*picture is courtesy of chicago.cbslocal.com
