It’s pretty clear the path the Chicago Cubs are taking. Or, at least it should be at this point. As Jed Hoyer tries to “thread the needle” while changing out the needle, or the thread, he’ll likely end up changing both before it’s all over.
We heard all off-season that the Cubs were shopping Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Kyle Hendricks, and even heard some quieter suggestions that Javier Baez trades were discussed. With none of them being moved (yet), it’s likely that the Cubs roll into the 2021 season with only a few additions and no real subtractions from today’s depth chart.
Hoyer has suggested that they will look to discuss extensions with their core when they all reunite in Mesa for Spring Training. Hoyer likes having these talks during the spring, and feels it’s a good time for progress.
“I think spring has always been a great time to have those discussions,” said Hoyer. “Some guys don’t like it to bleed into the last couple weeks, and some guys are willing to have those discussions [beyond that]. But we’ll certainly have those discussions in spring.”
This means the Cubs will approach guys like Bryant, Baez, Contreras, and Anthony Rizzo (maybe Ian Happ) in the next few weeks. But there’s a few issues with this mentality, ones that could prove detrimental to their ability to retain any of them.
For guys like Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez, they’re eight-and-a-half months from free agency. While they are all likely more valuable to the Cubs than any other team (and the Cubs are more valuable to them than any other organization), they are all much more likely to get more money as free agents. For a threesome that are already paid handsomely (combined $47.65m), all they have to do is wait eight months and they’ll increase their 2022 and beyond salaries exponentially. The only benefit signing an extension in spring has is knowing which team they’ll play for in 2022.
Which presents the next issue – the current state of the Cubs might be unattractive to any of the three.
The players see what is going on with the roster. They can see that the Cubs aren’t uber focused on supporting the 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024 teams. They’re looking to bridge from now until 2025 (or later) and will any of these three want to play for a team that won’t seriously compete? Will they be willing to throw away their prime years being the token draw for fans, while the rest of baseball tries to win championships?
Look, I’m not saying whatever the Cubs front office is wrong. The front office, led by Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, tried to undercut every one of their core players in any extension conversation. Any offers to Baez and Rizzo have been turned down for being far too low and any conversation with Bryant has been so far off that an actual offer has never materialized.
“We’ve had conversations with lots of our guys over a five-year period, and it’s always best to keep it quiet,” Hoyer told a group of reporters at the 2019 Winter Meetings. “I think in this case, Rizzo’s agent decided to talk about it and we did have some conceptual talks about what an extension would look like, and I think that candidly, we were pretty far apart in terms of length, and so he decided to come out and say that.”
But now the front office will need to make near, or above market offers to each of their core players to get them to forgo free agency. For a team that hasn’t made aggressive offers to any of their own players (except maybe David Bote), why would they change the time now?
If I were Rizzo, or Bryant, or Baez – I would need the Cubs to show me how they’re willing or able to compete in the near-term. I would need reassurances that there is a plan to compete in 2022 and 2023. But, with trading Yu Darvish and non-tendering Kyle Schwarber, not signing a legitimate free agent since the Darvish signing (or a multi-year deal since Daniel Descalso), this organization sure looks like one planning for years from now and not today.
If you’re Rizzo, why do you sign here? Hoyer told the world last off-season that you’re not worth what you and your agent are asking. You don’t have a ton of years playing at an elite level left. Why waste the last several formidable years on a club that isn’t invested in you or competing?
This goes for Bryant as well. Maybe the Cubs pony up some cash and offer him a deal. Maybe they get creative, something that any KB deal likely needs to be to get him to forgo free agency at this point, and finds something that makes sense financially. But again, Bryant will have to ask himself, “why sign here when it’s likely they attempt to trade me before they’re ready to compete for championships again?”
Baez might be a different story. But, Baez has rejected offers last season before the pandemic slowed any talks. It seems both the Cubs and Baez suggested they weren’t far apart, but after a horrible 2020 (as most of the game’s superstars did) would the Cubs start to lower their offer? Does that then turn Baez off?
At the end of the day, what is the message the organization is sending to their players? I know the last three offseasons they’ve been telling every team that every player is available. If you’re a player that the only offers you’ve seen are for far less than you’re worth, and you’ve heard each off-season that you’re available, why would you now want to sign an extension to play for the Cubs?
This is a very dangerous tightrope that Hoyer and the Cubs are walking. Unless they sell these players on the idea that they will jump back into free agency next season (there’s an answer to every problem in next year’s free agent class) and there’s an understanding of what’s next, the club is running the risk of losing them all.
Now, this can come off doom and gloom. This can also be a little, “what of?” Neither are my intention here. But this is a real possibility of what’s to come. I absolutely would expect that if the club cannot sign any of these guys this spring that they will immediately start dialing around the league. The rumors will start up again. This time they’ll get louder and louder. If they’re pointing in the wrong direction after their first 35-40 games, you will see the first trigger.
