Part of the Chicago Cubs rise from pretender to contender was Jake Arrieta’s jump from a good starting pitcher to the National League’s best. That rise has made it imperative for the Cubs to keep him, but this recent Jake Arrieta news certainly makes resigning him a much more difficult task.
While on WSCR-AM 670 The Score Tuesday morning, Gordon Wittenmyer talked about a number of things Cubs related, and then slid this interesting but unfortunate news on the team’s ace.
“They aren’t going to get an extension done with Arrieta.”
The Cubs offseason goals was to acquire more starting pitching depth, either resign Dexter Fowler or acquire another centerfielder, and lock Arrieta down to a long term deal. With Jake expecting a sizable bump in pay over his 2015 salary through arbitration ($3.63 M to above $10 M according to most projections) and the Cubs baseball side is already beginning to feel the choke hold from the operations side of the business, extending Jake while completing their other goals will prove difficult.
This isn’t to say the front office couldn’t make things work, but it will not be an easy task in the least. The Cubs payroll is expected to make a moderate jump to around $135 million in 2016, up from around $115 million in 2015, and then to remain relatively stagnate until the new TV deal begins to come in, according to Wittenmyer. Jake will be a free agent after 2017, and if he continues to pitch the way he has, will command a contract similar to Max Scherzer, David Price, and Zack Greinke.
To add to the likelihood of Jake searching for a mega-deal in free agency, Scott Boras is his agent and this is what he does. While I feel Jake has as good of a chance as any to remain a Cub, with any success at all next season his price tag will continue to jump. With a Cubs payroll budget expected to remain fairly fixed in that $135 million zone, and other players beginning to hit arbitration as well, it begins to become difficult for the math to work, even using the new common core way.
These budgetary concerns are why it was imperative for the Cubs to sign an extension with Jake this offseason. This year would be the cheapest the team would get him over the next two seasons, and if there isn’t much motivation for Jake to negotiate an extension after next season since arbitration will jump him up some more and he would be a summer away from a major payday. Illusions of signing Jake to a hometown discount in the $15 to $18 million a year range are far fetched at this point, and it would be difficult to envision a deal less than $22 million being enough to buy out Arrieta’s remaining arbitration seasons.
If the Cubs were to get him to agree to a $22 million extension this offseason, that would be an increase of roughly $19 million, and would certainly challenge the top of the Cubs budget. This could leave the Cubs with a tighter wallet when looking to other needs… ie… additional starting pitching, a bullpen arm or two, and a centerfielder… and makes the trade market that much more attractive for the rest of those plans.
While Jake has said on a number of occasions in the past that he likes being a Cub and wants to remain a Cub, every professional athlete has said that same line until they are holding up another team’s jersey at a press conference. I’m sure it is very convenient for Arrieta to remain a Chicago Cub, but when the dollars and cents don’t make sense, that is when a player begins to look elsewhere. Let’s hope the Cubs don’t give him a chance to look elsewhere.
Listen to Gordon Wittenmyer talk about the Jake Arrieta news here.
Interviews heard on 670 The Score
Source: 670 The Score Interview: Gordon Wittenmyer with Mully & Hanley – 12/02/2015
