Ohhh boy! The last article, 6 Dominoes if the Cubs Sign Jason Heyward, received huge backlash. Not to be preechy, but these are talking about the hypothetical, corresponding roster moves if the Chicago Cubs signed Jordan Zimmermann, or in the last article’s case, Jason Heyward.
Also, I gotta preference this with… if I suggest, or if the Cubs actually trade one of your beloved youngsters, they haven’t given up on them, and trading assets for other assets is what professional teams do from time to time. A team may even deal a fan favorite in an effort to buy wins in the current season.
Believe me, I want to see the Cubs retain guys like Jorge Soler, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Starlin Castro, Kyle Schwarber, Jake Arrieta, and everyone else in the minors we’ve been hearing about. Fact of the matter is, some of those guys just won’t be here this next season, let alone five years from now.
Whew, coming off the soapbox now…
Cubs sign Jordan Zimmermann
Signing Jordan Zimmermann is almost like winning your girlfriend a big plush animal at the county fair only to see someone else win a bigger stuffed animal (David Price) for their significant other. Sure you’ll probably get lucky, but that dude will get to do things straight outta Penthouse Letters.
Either way, Zimmermann is a very good pitcher, but his 2015 didn’t do a ton to sell his stock high. Owner of a career 70-50 record and a very respectable 3.66 era, Zimmermann would not only add depth to the rotation, but he is a season removed from an ERA+ of 141 which would give the Cubs a much needed boost out of the third starter spot in 2016 and beyond.
First domino, the plan
No, I’m not talking about the famous “plan” Theo Epstein has talked about since he’s got here, I’m talking about the team’s offseason plan. The Ricketts sent out letters to the Cubs season ticket holders this past week explaining their plan to add pitching this offseason. While many outlets think it’s almost a guarantee that the Cubs will sign David Price this offseason (read our detailed explanation of the potential Price contract), I’m more inclined to believe the team will sign Zimmermann and trade one (or more) of their younger guys to acquire a young pitcher which the team could control for several years.
Now the Cubs have a rotation that includes Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Jordan Zimmerman. Pretty dang impressive.
Second domino, a youngster
This would certainly mean one of the guys that you’ve loved through 162 games (well mostly less than a full season) will be sent out. Names that have most often come up have been; Starlin Castro, Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, and Kyle Schwarber.
As Gordon Wittenmyer recently mentioned, it is very possible two of those names will be gone next season. The two most likely to be gone are Soler and Castro.
Castro played his way into a tradable player with his strong September and October, and continued to play well in the playoffs as well. He might not warrant a huge name in return himself, but there are teams out there that value Castro as either a shortstop or second baseman, and would definitely take a chance on him. With an expectation of Castro being dealt, it would be extremely unlikely that the Cubs would ALSO trade Baez.
Do not be surprised if the Cubs Strike a deal with the Cleveland Indians or Atlanta Braves for Carlos Carrasco or Julio Teheran. Both, the Braves and Indians are high on Soler, and Cleveland — who the Cubs had intense trade deadline talks with — might be willing to include Lonnie Chisenhall, a utility player that would instantly tighten up the Cubs spotty defense.
If the Cubs decide to add pitching depth through a trade, and not free agency, then expect Jorge Soler to be dealt. There have been names floated around, and perhaps a larger deal comes forward, but as it is Soler can be replaced, while it would be extremely difficult to replace someone like Kris Bryant or Kyle Schwarber.
If Soler is dealt, expect the Cubs to move on another player quickly. Jason Heyward, Franklin Gutierrez, Gerardo Parra, or Justin Upton will be available in free agency, and the Cubs could start talks with the Royals star Alex Gordon.
Third domino, Jason Hammel
Not that anyone will lose sleep over this but, Jason Hammel will lose his spot in the rotation. The Cubs are high on Kyle Hendricks, and he has done everything he could to earn their high praises. Hammel on the other hand has not been very impressive from July on in 2015, and the last we saw him he was being booed off the Wrigley Field mound.
Hammel is not the type of pitcher that can just take a demotion to the bullpen either, and if Zimmermann (and I’d include the other next level starters available in this) and trade for another starter, Hammel will not be a Cub in 2016.
Hammel does have a 2016 friendly contract, and should be able to be dealt. While the Cubs might not get a ton for him in return, including Hammel in a deal that brings a pitcher back, or a deal that could net the Cubs a center fielder for 2016.
Fourth domino, the search for a centerfielder
The Cubs not only need a center fielder, but they will need a leadoff hitter as well. With the two main centerfielders that double as leadoff hitters on the market being Denard Span and the familiar Dexter Fowler, if the team doesn’t strike in free agency they will have to look to the trade market. With he team’s best defensive player, Albert Almora, is still a few years away from his big league debut, they will be forced into some move this offseason.
With the Cubs likely going a cheaper option as far as starting pitchers go (even if Zimmermann gets an average salary of $20 million, that is the cheaper route) they may still have the resources to bring Dexter Fowler back, although he will be looking to increase his $9 M pay from a year ago, and sign a long term deal in the neighborhood of four years at $15 M per season.
If Dexter is not the answer, or we cannot fit him into the mix again, Span would have to do, and very well might be the better option. Span has, throughout his career, set the table incredibly well, owning a lifetime .352 OBP, has the ability to steal bases, and his ability to put the bat on the ball (average of 61 strikeouts per year) makes him a very attractive piece to the Chicago Cubs World Series puzzle. Not to mention he led the National League in hits in 2014 (184) and has twice led the league in triples, while playing an outstanding centerfield.
The only issue to worry about is Span is injuries. While having 660 + plate appearances in both 2013 and 14, Span spent a lot of time on the DL in 2015. He had a sports hernia procedure then had surgery to repair a right core muscle which placed him on the DL to start 2015. Following that up with absences due to back spasms, he finally missed the rest of the season after he suffered a hip injury which required surgery on September 1st.
The Cubs could check the temperature on Carlos Gomez with Houston. While Houston competed in 2015, they still will have salary constraints and Gomez’s $9 M could be nice to get off the books, especially if they get a player like Jorge Soler or Javy Baez in return. Gomez is under contract until the 2017 season, which could also allow for the team to bring Albert Almora up slowly, allowing for him to develop his offensive game.
There would be a lot less moving parts when signing Zimmermann than if the team were to sign someone like David Price or Zack Greinke, but it does still offer some consequences. This team has an apparent hole in center, as well as in the pitching staff, relievers and starters combined. While the best (or most convenient) way for the team to upgrade the most positions is through trade — it also offers the least expensive route — while that will certainly cost the team someone that the Cubs and fans like, the end game is a World Series.
The hot stove is just really starting, and there will be a lot more talk and a lot more rumor over the course of baseball’s winter.
