I’m out here calling bluffs. During Theo Epstein’s 1:21 minute press conference to end the 2019 Chicago Cubs season, he hinted to the idea that the Cubs could shop Kris Bryant and Javier Baez. Of course, this is only feasible if the club cannot work out an extension with either player.
The Cubs are looking to protect the organization. If players of their caliber are preparing to leave via free agency, trading them will ensure the Cubs aren’t left empty-handed if they do.
But here’s the deal, it doesn’t make sense when it comes to Bryant.
There isn’t a team out there that wouldn’t look at Bryant as a rental. Even if they get two years out of him, it isn’t going to matter what city he plays in – if signally is a huge question mark – he will test free agency anywhere he’s traded to as well.
Knowing this, what organization is going to trade their best assets for Bryant? Then add the qualifier, which ones are in a position to even have the conversation to begin with?
A rebuilding team isn’t going to jump in this conversation, they need their assets to build whatever they are building. So here you’re eliminating like a third of baseball. Then you need someone with just enough young talent but are also within their competing window. Now we’ve eliminating another 10 teams. What you have remaining are the Cubs, Washington Nationals, New York Yankees, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Oakland Athletics, and Houston Astros.
From here we can eliminate some more. The Cubs won’t trade within their division, bye-bye Brewers. The A’s and Mets can’t get into the financial commitment through his last two arbitration years. The Astros won’t be moving Alex Bregman and they wouldn’t pay a premium to then move Bryant to the OF full-time. The Dodgers would be in that same grouping as Justin Turner is there for as long as Bryant would be and A.J. Pollock signed a five-year deal last offseason. Sure, they *could* trade Pollock, but he Dodgers have been a lot more fiscally conservative and their bigger concern will be repairing their bullpen.
This leaves four remaining teams. The Nationals, Braves, Phillies, and Yankees.
The Yankees are always a dark horse in any conversation. While they’ve been more fiscally conservative (in total payroll) they could toss $30 million a season at any problem at any time.
The Braves and Nationals are possibly losing their third baseman this offseason. It is possible that Stephan Strasburg opts out after the season, so they could be at a crossroads in how they move the organization forward. The Braves could make sense, but are they going to trade Cristian Pache (No. 11 prospect), Drew Waters (No. 23 prospect), and either Ian Anderson (No. 31) or Kyle Wright (No. 35) for Bryant when they can toss money at Josh Donaldson (who would return), Anthony Rendon (already turned down a $30m AAV deal), Martin Pardo, Todd Frazier, Jed Gyorko, or Ryan Flaherty?
But even with that – who plays third for the Cubs, and how does a group of prospects help the Cubs compete in 2020?
It doesn’t.
This is why I just don’t think the Cubs will actively shop Bryant this offseason. What value will they get for next season? You’re not going to trade him for a backend rotation guy, and anyone competing will be unlikely to deal an “ace-like” starter.
This is why keeping Bryant, even if he walks after 2021, is more valuable than a possible trade would be. Trading Bryant trades away a 5.5 WAR player. Outside Rendon, there isn’t a 5.5 WAR 3B on the market, and they won’t receive a 5.5 WAR player in a trade. Sure they might get pieces that are complementary or that could help them in two-three seasons from now, but nothing that will provide equal value – or anything close.
I am well aware that a lot of Cubs fans have devalued Bryant over the past two seasons (which is incredible to most fans with baseball reason), but he is one of the most productive players in the game. I mean, he posted a 4.8 fWAR in 2019, in a down season. In an average season, he’s a 5.5 fWAR guy and in his best seasons, he’s a 7 fWAR guy.
With how much Bryant talked about an extension this past Spring, the recent flurry of high-value extensions, and the fact that the Cubs will be unsuccessful at pulling equal value to help this current club in 2020 – they just aren’t going to trade him. Now, look at it from any other team’s perspective – why would they give up Top 100 (and multiple Top 50) prospects for Bryant when their solution can be had in free agency and they keep their prospects?
While I can be wrong, and this is a rudimentary look at things, there just isn’t an outcome or team that really lines up.
