And you thought 2015 was fun, just wait for 2016!
At least that is what Fangraphs, the most trusted and respected baseball advanced statistics and projections website is saying. Every year FanGraphs lists the Steamer600 projections, and while in years past they haven’t been so kind to the Cubs, rightfully so, they are predicting a huge things for the Cubs in 2016.
Steamer uses a series of factors when creating the projections. Things like past performance, comparison to similar prop players at similar ages, ballpark indexes, & a series of other factors come into play in their projections. While it’s not a perfect system by any means, it does do a good job of suggesting where a player could end up if all of those factors will true. Additionally in the Steamer600 projections they projected out heaters by using 600 at bats, starting pitchers at 200 innings, and relievers @ 65 innings.
While in some cases I would agree that the Steamer600 projections should be taken with a grain of salt, especially this early in an offseason, but none the less it is fun to daydream and look into the future and what certain players or teams could be capable of doing according to projections. With all of that said let’s start to get crazy and look at the projections they have for the 2016 Chicago Cubs.
The system is expecting almost predictable results out of the Cubs offense, with Kris Bryant leading the way with a 5.1 WAR. It doesn’t look like Steamer thinks much of sophomore slumps as Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Addison Russell are expected to have phenomenal seasons.
- Kris Bryant – .271/.359/.504 29 HR 86 RBI 5.1 WAR
- Kyle Schwarber – .261/.345/.474 28 HR 75 RBI 3.2 WAR
- Addison Russell – .246/.306/.394 15 HR 66 RBI 2.5 WAR
One might look at both Bryant’s and Schwarber’s RBI totals and think they are too low, which sure I could agree, but it does appear that RBI’s are more spread out in the 2016 Cubs offense, and not bunched between just two players, Anthony Rizzo and Bryant.
Speaking of Rizzo, they’re projecting another huge season for the Cubs star first baseman. While he’ll come in just below Kris Bryant in WAR (4.6), he is expected to lead the Cubs in both home runs and RBIs Once again.
Interesting to note the Steamer prediction are expecting Starlin Castro to have a bounce back season, bringing his average up over the .270 mark. This shouldn’t be that much of a surprise as Castro has been a very good hitter throughout his career. The other interesting note is the projections favorable outlook on Cubs youngster Javier Baez. Through the projections they are estimating him to hit 28 home runs in the 2016 season, he is also expected to finish tied for 4th on the team with a 2.5 WAR.
Frustratingly the projections are looking for Jorge Soler to have an exceptionally find offensive season however inability to impress defensively is likely to lay down his overall value for a team. With a slash line of .260/.324/.440 21 HRs and 75 RBIs he would normally be an extremely important player for any team. His extremely poor defensive projections bring him down towards a just above replacement level player (1.4 WAR).
Here is a link to the Cubs hitters.
The Steamer projections areally kind to the Cubs pitching staff as well. With Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester projected out as a 5.0 and 4.5 WAR respectively. While they do predict only a 14 win season for Jake and a 13 win season for Lester, I wouldn’t read too much into those totals as long as they project them well in regards to WAR.
Most interesting is their faith in Kyle Hendricks, while surprising (they expect him to win 13 with a 3.5 WAR), there have been many other very kind expectations out of the young Cubs pitcher. With a mid 3 ERA, and the expectation that he gets 200 innings, I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to match these expectations.
Troublesome is the drop off by the backend of the bullpen. With Pedro Strop having an up and down 2015, it appears that Steamer sees more regression from the volital righty. Equally frustrating is the expected decline of closer Hector Rondon. While they expect him to have 28 saves on 2016, a drop off to a 0.7 WAR. On a team that had bullpen questions in 2015, and the loss of several important arms from down the stretch, the team needs those two guys to make a giant step up in 2016.
Here are the pitcher projections.
You will notice that the projections pull in players from the minors. While some might make appearances in 2016 — Willson Contreras for example — others will not. Another, wacky, projection is the strikeout numbers for the Cubs. While 170 K’s for Kris Bryant seems like a lot, it is actually a huge reduction in compairison to his 2015 figures. That could be intended, as a seasoned hitter will have a better understanding of how pitchers will attack him, or it could be that these projections will not suggest someone will strikeout 200 times in a season.
Ultimately, these are very good projections for the Cubs. With several players sitting around a 5 WAR, and others expected to either improve upon their 2015 numbers, 2016 will certainly be fun.
