Yesterday and today Yovani Gallardo has been rumored to be the next starting pitcher to sign, and the Cubs are being mentioned along with the Royals.
Nick Cafardo mentions other teams such as the Blue Jays, Pirates and Orioles that may be in on a Scott Kazmir-like deal (3 yrs/48 mil with opt-out after 2016). The Fangraphs’ crowdsourcing project showed that people believe Gallardo will receive a 4 year deal worth $56 million.
The Royals could have some money to spend after only spending $70 million on Alex Gordon. The thing is with Kansas City is they might not have much more money to give to a player. The Orioles have yet to make a move this off-season, and could work to add a contributor after finishing ninth in the American League in ERA and 10th in batting average against.
The Blue Jays are a fun case after coming off an ALCS trip in 2015. Marco Estrada was pretty good a season ago, and so they re-signed him before Price agreed to head to Boston. Then they signed J.A. Happ. Then they traded for Oakland’s Jesse Chavez. However, they still have R.A. Dickey, and adding pitching depth is never a bad thing.
From the Cubs’ perspective, I’m not sure how the Fangraphs’ projection makes a lot of sense. Even at a Kazmir-like contract, it doesn’t seem plausible or reasonable for a team that has loaded up on super-utility pitchers and have some depth in the rotation.
The Cubs have already forfeited its first round pick after the Lackey signing, so if they would choose to add Gallardo that wouldn’t be affected.
Gallardo’s ERA and ERA+ (3.42 and 124) were the best of his career, but his FIP of 4.00 isn’t necessarily attractive as it’s his worst of his career. His FB% was the second lowest of his career at 53.9%, along with his average velocity dropping before 90.5 mph (1 mph slower than 2014). His increased SL% at before his age-30 season is concerning.
Cubs interest in Gallardo is likely just checking in to see if he'll come for pennies on the dollar short term. Just covering the bases.
— Brad Robinson (@bradrobinson8) January 10, 2016
I would be the most comfortable with a signing of 2 years and (at most) $30 million. A short-term deal is the best situation for the Cubs, and something they’ve shown interest in doing. This would provide depth for the starting staff, and with signings such as Trevor Cahill and Clayton Richard a guy like Gallardo who’s more prone to pitching only five innings, it could work out well.
Let’s remember the Cubs were reportedly in on Gallardo at the trade deadline before the Rangers chose to hang on to him for their playoff push.
After due diligence, I think I decide to let him walk unless he chooses to take less than projected to join the Cubs (like Zobrist and Heyward did). 2/30 would be the highest I would go, preferably more around the 2/25 range. The Cubs front office would have to consider this a steal in order to pull the trigger. Realistically, some team will give him three of four years upwards of $50 million, but the Cubs should not and will not be that team.
*picture is courtesy of mlb.com
