At least that is what Baseball Prospectus is predicting using PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) in a recent article predicting the production of several Chicago Cubs over the next 10 seasons.
First, PECOTA uses the top two or three player comps, which means if one of those players had a down season then the projections will show a dip as well. PECOTA should smooth the numbers out over the course of the players career however.
Javier Baez
It is hard not to look at Baez hitting mammoth home runs with your tongue out and mouth watering. Of all the Cubs prospects Javier is the most difficult to get an accurate prediction of how good he can be. Some have him as a Gold Glove caliber second baseman, who by the way hits 40 HRs a season, while others look at him as a decent defensive player that hits .215 with 200 plus strikeouts and around 20 HRs.
Here are the Baseball Prospectus predictions.
Surprisingly PECOTA nails the ups and downs of Javier Baez. While predicting an average of 26 HRs overt the next 10 years, they also predict very high strikeout numbers, low walks, and an almost average player. Are you underwhelmed? Take this into consideration.
“The 16.3 WARP Baez is projected to produce over the next nine seasons is more than all but 12 second basemen have produced in the last nine seasons.” Rian Watt Baseball Prospectus.
They predict Baez, a player that scouts and Major League executives alike are uncertain about, to be a much better than average second baseman. While fans want that 40 homer guy, and is suspect his numbers end up being better than shown here, it would be a scoring win if this is that player Baez turns into.
Addison Russell
Russell is on everyone’s list as a can’t miss guy. In fact, at the beginning of the season, Baseball Prospectus named Russell as the Cubs top prospect, ahead of Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, and Kyle Schwarber. Russell is renowned for his glove, his soft hands and the skill in which he man’s the shortstop position is something of instructional videos, but his offense was a huge part of his rise within the minor leagues.
Russell had a minor league slash line of .301/.377/.520 and a .897 OPS. Addison had 115 extra base hits in 244 minor league games, and drove in a total of 159 runs. That production hasn’t exactly translated in the pros, as of yet. In 102 major league games he has a a slash line of .244/.305/.381, although he has been much better of late, there is a rising setiment that his bat might not make that leap to the major leagues.
It appears PECOTA doesn’t predict a ton from the young shortstop. While he certainly handles the bat well at times, his strikeout rates and low averages make Starlin Castro an even more attractive option. This is the ultimate Sabermetrics vs Eye, and this very well could be a case in which the eye beats the prediction algorithms. I don’t like saying Player A puts more work in than other players, but Russell puts a ton of time into his craft, and we’ve already seen what can happen when a prospect puts tons of time in to fix his weaknesses – Anthony Rizzo.
Jorge Soler
Soler has experienced nagging injury after nagging injury, but that doesn’t stop him from hitting the ball hard. I mean ridiculously hard. His mean exit velocity comes in at 92.7 MPH, which places him in the top 10 in the National League. Could some of his injuries, mostly lower body which effects power, account for some of his low power numbers this season?
Soler looks to have a very, regular career ahead of him. He plays a over replacement player level, but checking in around an average of 1.0 WARP doesn’t spell superstar. This is possibly the most dissapointing prediction made, especially since Soler looked to be the second coming of Vladimir Guerrero. I would warn, he is still very young and as a player, he is still learning professional life in the US. Soler has had just 1,095 professional plate appearances, with nearly half (464 PA) of those coming in the majors.
The jury might be out too soon in the case of Soler, and if he learns what pitchers are trying to do with him, and he finds a way to make consistent contact, balls will leave his bat at a much faster rate than 92 MPH.
Kyle Schwarber
I have to remind you that these are all just estimations and predictions as we start to examine both, Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant.
PECOTA is predicting HUGE numbers from Schwarber. Numbers that put him in the Mike Piazza and Johnny Bench territory. Numbers that if met, Schwarber will find his name on a crest in Cooperstown type numbers.
Schwarber is perhaps the most professional hitter of the Bryant, Russell, Soler camp, and has shown an understanding of what pitchers want to do to him. That statement might be misleading when looking at his projected strikeout numbers, but while Kyle is projected to K in about 29% of his at bats, that is a couple ticks down from his current pace of 32%.
Kyle’s almost unfathomable 47.9 WARP over the next 10 years will give Cubs fans something to be VERY, VERY excited about. Those numbers pale in compairison to Kris Bryant however.
Kris Bryant
Kris is penned to be the next golden boy of baseball, and of the Northside. His moonshine homers are what you pay to see, and while he has been knocked for defensive issues, he was tabbed as the third best fielding third baseman according to a survey of managers conducted by Baseball America. While on pace to become the 2015 National League Rookie of the Year (barring a surge from San Francisco’s Matt Duffy) Bryant has certainly fulfilled all of the promise that came with him when the Cubs made him the second overall pick in the 2013 MLB draft.
You might not be overly impressed with Bryant’s batting average, nor his strikeout rate, but Kris is in line to be the next… well… Kris Bryant. According to Baseball Prospectus, Bryant’s cumulative 53.5 WARP is in a class of his own when compared to all hitters over the past nine seasons. There is only one player that PECOTA predicts to have better numbers, and that is the Angels Mike Trout – 66.3 WARP. Also, if you are worried about his strikeout rate, Trout himself went down swinging 184 times in 2014, and has struck out 121 times so far this season. Get excited about these predictions Cubs fans as Bryant and company are for real.
You like these predictions, then you’ll LOVE this post: These Cubs Could Be Looking at Postseason Awards
Sources: Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball-Reference
