Don’t at me on this. I proclaimed the same exact thing at the conclusion of Game 3 of the World Series, and it happened. I also believe when you put these things out in the universe, it’s more likely to happen. Plus, I’d rather say it and be wrong, than hold it in and be right.
Don’t get me wrong on this either. The Dodgers, on paper, throughout 162, through these four games, are the better team. So how can I make such a bold statement?
Matchups.
“How the hell can you say the Cubs have a matchup advantage with Clayton Kershaw pitching in Game 5!?” Glad you asked!
Game 5
The Cubs have hit Clayton in the past. While his career 2.64 ERA against the Cubs is ominous, it is the way the team hit him in Game 1 and looking at how they knocked Clayton around in Game 6 of the NLCS last year. I also look at his 4.57 playoff ERA and 5.30 NLCS ERA. If Game 4 provides the spark this team needed to calm down a bit, I fully believe a loose and confident Cubs offense can touch up Kershaw.
I also like the Cubs offense against left-handed pitchers. Albert Almora is a catalyst that has mostly gone unnoticed. His ability to crush lefties in almost every game he’s in adds a great dynamic of power and average.
Game 6
This will be back in LA and should see a lefty matchup with the Dodgers going with Rich Hill and the Cubs tossing Jon Lester. Rich has pitched well in two NLCS starts (0.82 ERA), both against the Cubs. But even though the Cubs didn’t hit Rich hard, was there any point in his Game 2 start that made you feel the Cubs couldn’t hit him?
The Cubs would have Lester going. A guy who outside of Madison Bumgarner, is the best postseason pitcher of this generation. He has a 2.55 playoff ERA in 25 games. His 2.59 NLCS ERA gives you more faith that he will be incredibly tough. The fact that he’s only allowed three runs in three appearances in the 2017 playoffs, makes you believe the first team to score twice will win that game.
Game 7
The pressure of this series will have completely flipped to the Dodgers. With the Cubs pushing a Game 7, they are going to be a loose bunch with nothing to lose. Afterall, by this point they are playing with house money.
We cant be positive on starters, but you’d get the sense that Yu Darvish would start, and LA would have their incredible bullpen with a potential appearance by Clayton Kershaw? The Cubs would have Kyle Hendricks back, and anyone not named Jon Lester in the pen.
How could you not like Kyle in this situation? He has pitched in a Game 6 Series closeout against the Dodgers last season. Then he pitched Game 7 of the World Series last season. He’s had some mechanical issues this postseason, but assuming this is an evening game in LA, balls don’t carry as well at night, his mistakes will remain in the ballpark.
I like a good Hendricks to beat LA in a decisive Game 7, and I’d still take an imperfect Kyle to compete.
What could go wrong?
I hate to even mention this, cause like I said, if I put it out in the universe it could happen… but the first thing is, Game 4 was that last champion’s punch. They mustered up enough energy to put it on the Dodgers for one night. Like I mentioned, LA has proven to be the better team here.
It is hard to count on Clayton Kershaw to go out and not pitch like one of the all-time Best pitchers this game has ever seen. While his playoff career hasn’t mirrored his regular season, he’s still Clayton freaking Kershaw.
But even without Clayton, the Cubs have yet to score off of Dodgers reliever, and have only mustered three hits against the Dodgers bullpen in four games. Kenley Jansen has allowed one baserunner, when he hit Anthony Rizzo in the hand, and is capable of recording more than six outs in a game. If the game is tied and both teams go to their bullpens, the Dodgers pen has proven to be the best in the game right now. The Cubs pen, you struggle to find someone that can get you one clean out, let alone an inning or more’s worth.
Jon Lester has been one of the greatest postseason performers since he came up with the Boston Red Sox. One area he hasn’t been great in… elimination games. In three elimination game starts, Jon has pitched 23.1 innings while giving up 21 hits and 12 earned runs. The majority of those runs came in the 2014 postseason while with the Oakland Athletics. Pitching against the Kansas City Royals, Lester was rolling. Through 7 innings he had dominated the Royals bats, and it looked like his reputation was going to hold up.
But then the Royals began to tee off on Jon, and he left that game having pitched 7.1 innings and gave up 6 runs. I don’t think Jon will blow up in a game again, but his 4.63 ERA in elimination games is something to be mindful of.
I envision Game 7 being a Kyle Hendricks to Jake Arrieta type of game. Jake loves pitching in LA, as the home of his first career no-hitter, but if Kyle doesn’t go too deep in the game, I don’t like Jake needing to go four innings and the Cubs remaining competitive. Jake is a gamer, and I have 100% confidence that he will leave it all out on the field, but I can see his first relief experience in the playoffs going sideways.
Game 5 will of course decide a TON, but if the Cubs got that nudge from their win in Game 4, and make Kershaw the playoff pitcher he’s been, this is going seven games.
