I know there is a lot of hate around the new three-batter minimum pitching rule that will be all the rave in 2019. As a traditionalist, the rule at face value seems rather silly. Here is a rule that will have absolute influence on a good amount of games this season, all in an effort to shave seven minutes off of the average game time so baseball can attract more kids.
In case you missed the change, or aren’t sure of what I might be talking about, here is the rule.
MLB, MLBPA ANNOUNCE ON-FIELD AGREEMENT
Series of Changes Will Go Into Effect Over Next Two Seasonshttps://t.co/Cm9ZupDlNJ pic.twitter.com/Pyh0aE86nK
— MLBPA Communications (@MLBPA_News) March 14, 2019
Here’s the rule, specifically, if you are unable to read it in the picture.
As you could assume, this changes strategy, which could change rosters, and will change ballgames. It is hard to assume how it will change things, as there are a lot of moving parts here, but teams will not have a real need for single-out pitchers any longer. With that said, could we see someone like the Chicago Cubs Randy Rosario have no roster value?
In a piece by Mike Petriello on MLB.com, he threw some interesting numbers at the wall with regard to this new rule. Since 1990, the amount of pitchers that have faced one or two hitters has increased by 1,000.
Of course spreading out those instances, across 162 games per team, across 4,860 MLB games, doesn’t seem like a lot, but when you factor in the multiple mound visits, the warm-up time, and the upcoming pinch-hitter, mandatory commercial break, etc. etc. It can add legit time to a ballgame.
Roster shakeup?
But outside of the potential loss of jobs, it could change roster construction back towards an early 90s type of construct. Per Foolish Baseball, the 1991 World Series Champion Minnesota Twins had nine pitchers on their postseason roster. In 1995 teams changed to carry 10 hurlers. Fast-forward to the 2000s and teams are carrying 12-13 pitchers on a roster.
From a roster standpoint, it is beginning to look a lot more like a return to old, rather than new roster strategy.
With specialists potentially becoming less important, or well potentially used differently, teams might opt to keep more hitters on the team than pitchers. Could we see the Cubs opt to keep only 10 pitchers, and go with 15 hitters in 2019?
That idea might get scratched with both Brandon Morrow and Pedro Strop being shelved for the time being, but could this potentially change how other teams shape their rosters?
Strategy shifting
This move doesn’t negate strategy, it simply changes it. A manager needs to understand hitter tendencies at a much more intimate level. He needs to know how a pitcher fares against particular hitters a third time through. He also needs to understand the hitter’s tendencies a third time through as well.
But there are even more decisions to be made. Since a pitcher needs to face three batters, a manager might bring in a lefty to start an inning where a left-handed hitter is due up second or third in the inning. So say an opposing team is up two runs, and Kyle Schwarber is due up second in an inning. You have say, Willson Contreras up before and Ian Happ behind Schwarber. An opposing manager might put their lefty in to start the inning, assuming Schwarber is the guy that can tie the game and Contreras can only bring the game within one.
But a manager may also decide to alternate their lineups much more often going forward. Cubs manager Joe Maddon could put an order together like this:
- Ian Happ SH
- Kris Bryant RHH
- Anthony Rizzo LHH
- Javier Baez RHH
- Kyle Schwarber LHH
- Willson Contreras RHH
- Jason Heyward LHH
- Addison Russell RHH
This would force managers into incredibly tough decisions in games. Who do you choose to pitch to?
Cubs bullpen?
I recently did my second installment of What to Expect When Expecting, and it covered the Cubs bullpen. There is a real chance that my projected bullpen isn’t what the Cubs go into the season with. But someone like Rosario could be left off the roster in lieu of a bat like Cristhian Adames. He shouldn’t be on a major league roster, but can get on after an impressive spring and a smaller emphasis on match-up pitching at the end of ballgames.
This could also make a guy like Mike Montgomery and even Tyler Chatwood more important than Carl Edwards Jr this year. Guys that can absolutely manage a full inning and have the ability to correct issues mid-stream.
This could also push managers to keep starters in longer.
Do you remember the Cubs game against the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 10th? Ok, that’s a ridiculous ask. But you might remember being upset that the Cubs lost that day after Maddon removed Kyle Hendricks after five innings of three hit ball, where he gave up a single run. Hendricks had thrown 87 pitches, and had been rolling. Sure there were other things that went into this. Hendricks had an elevated pitch count the previous time out, the next couple hitters have hit him hard in the past, and at the time it was a close ballgame. But the Cubs lost that game due to the bullpen not completing the gem Kyle was pitching.
Now, without the ability to play a match-up, maybe Maddon or other managers will opt to run with a starter longer, perhaps allowing them to start an inning.
How it can help the Cubs
While the Cubs have several hitters that can do damage in any at bat, verse any pitcher, the guy that stands out as someone this benefits is Anthony Rizzo.
Look at how most of the games go against Rizzo. He will face a starter twice (sometimes three times). Then he faces a left-handed pitcher, (potentially) another left-handed pitcher, set-up man throwing 97 mph plus, and a closer. When facing a starting pitcher the first time, Rizzo slashes .259/.363/.449. The second time verse a starter Rizzo hits .300/.390/.582. When Rizzo faces a reliever he slashes .249/.364/.437. When he faces that power set-up man Rizzo is hitting .219/.346/.394.
This doesn’t change the outcome of the power guy that Rizzo will face at the end of ballgames, but it could help him see more right-handed pitchers throughout a season where he owns a .883 lifetime OPS against.
The three hitter minimum can potentially reduce the length of ballgames AND create more offense.
Imagine those times, late in games, where Kris Bryant gets on-base (he owns a .393 career OBP in the seventh inning and later). Then Rizzo comes up in a situation where the opposition cannot play a full shift. This will obviously play into the Cubs favor in these situations.
I don’t know the actual outcome of this rule change, but I do know it will have an impact on the game. How big or small that is, won’t come until the season starts rolling. But as Len Kasper reminded fans on Twitter the other day, there already is a minimum batter rule in baseball, they have just expanded upon an existing rule. For the purists, this isn’t a new thing, but rather an adaptation on an old thing. At the end of it all, baseball is baseball and the game will remain the same.
