Have you heard the chatter regarding Kyle Schwarber? Joe Maddon said that Kyle is the front runner for replacing Dexter Fowler in the lead off spot. This isn’t really news. This idea was mentioned at the Cubs Convention. What I want to do here is put some numbers to why Joe is considering this move. OK, he’s not really considering it, the real story will be if Schwarber isn’t seeing that very first pitch of 2017 on ESPN on Sunday April 2 in St, Louis. So back to the numbers
Remembering 2015
Ya, we all remember the last time Schwarbanger played against the Cardinals.
I’m sure we all remember how awesome he was during the regular season too, but do we remember where in the line-up he was hitting? That’s right, same as the World Series, right in the two hole ahead of the soon to be Rookie of the Year, Kris Bryant. Here are Schwarber’s numbers from that two spot back in 2015.
84% of his plate appearances in 2015 were in that two spot (228 of 273). He compiled a slash line of .239/.368/.505 with 15 home runs. His OPS+ of 130 was only topped this past year by MVP candidates Bryant (149) and Anthony Rizzo (146). It is that sequence of Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo that Maddon also used in the four games in Cleveland, during the World Series. It is hard to question that these are the Cubs three best hitters. I’m sure if Maddon had another “no doubt about it” selection for lead off, he would keep these three studs hitting 2, 3, and 4. Unfortunately there is not as clear a choice as one might think.
2016 RESULTS
That lead off spot has some traditional qualities attached to it. I’ll let you guys discuss those, I’m gonna focus specifically on what a player does at the plate. Ben Zobrist, World Series MVP (gotta love how that sounds!) seems to be a viable candidate to hit lead off since he posted the best OBP of .386 topping all current Cubs in 2016. Right behind Zobrist are those two MVP guys commonly know as Bryzzo, each with an OBP of .385. Willson Contreras posted a very respectable .357 in his 76 games, followed by Addison Russell and his .321 OBP. After that, except for Tommy La Stella (.357 OBP in 169 PA) and Miguel Montero (.327 OBP in 284 PA), no other current Cub posted an OBP over .320.
Now La Stella and Montero really aren’t options, but what about Zobrist, Contreras, or Russell? Let’s start with Zobrist. His 2016 slash line was .272/.386/.446 with an OPS+ of 124. WOW! this really seems like a logical choice, right? Except in 96 plate appearances hitting lead off last year, Zobrist posted a .220/.333./402 slash line. So what you say? Well hitting behind Rizzo in the clean-up spot Zobrist hit .267/.382/.437 in 248 plate appearances. While change is good, too much change can be negative. Keeping Zobrist behind Rizzo for most of the games seems to be ideal.
WILSSON OR ADDISON
Contreras and Russell are interesting options. Contreras seems to have more lead off attributes than Schwarber. You know those traditional attributes you’ve been thinking about, but Contreras has done most of his damage in the four and five hole. Russell also has those traditional lead off attributes and in his one game last year hitting lead off he did have two hits. Neither really seem like the guy you want to start the season by putting in that lead role. Everyone else is just a gamble and a hunch.
RIGHTY LEFTY
One final thought. Given the amount of left handed pitchers, or lack there of, expect the Cubs to see about 40-45 left handed starters. That means 120 games of right handed starters and having a left handed lead off hitter will be ideal. Zobrist is a switch hitter, so that brings him back into the picture, but Contreras and Russell are right handed hitters. The only other left handed hitters are Jon Jay and Jason Heyward. Jay carries a .352 OBP and has experience with decent success in that role, but he’s not Schwarber. Will the real Jason Heyward please stand up. If Jahey is bashing the ball and getting on base, that certainly could be a possiblity. Maddon will want a righty leading off against real tough left handed pitchers, so expect Zobrist (or even Contreras or Russell) to fill that role at some point. It is definitely more than just some sort of novelty having Schwarber lead off. I would bat Schwarber lead off.
