I’ve seen a couple of people still questioning the trade which sent Jeirmer Candelario and Isaac Paredes to Detroit for Justin Wilson and Alex Avila. For as much as I see “Trust in Theo” to explain away any sort of question about anything the Chicago Cubs, there is a big part of the Cubs base that just did not and still doesn’t like this deal. Even with the injury to Willson Contreras, which Avila perfectly steps in to fill a hole, fans still rag on Alex and the deal.
I have almost come to the conclusion that even though the Cubs won the World Series, some fans are always waiting for that other shoe to drop. I feel like there are a couple of factions of Cubs fans, the casual fan, the die-hard which thinks the club can do no wrong, and another that are die-hards but question everything. I think most of the questions come from that third bucket of fans.
I have to say, I will never tell someone how to fan. Baseball, outside of your friends and family, is perhaps the most intimate relationship someone has. I’m not going to tell you how to feel about drunk uncle Joe, so I won’t tell you how to feel about manager Joe (who coincidently appears drunk from time-to-time).
I digress…
Justin Wilson
The trade with Detroit solved a couple issues. The first was the evolving issues in the Cubs bullpen. Justin Wilson had been a great backend closer for the Tigers in 2017. Carrying a sub 3 ERA, sub 1.000 WHIP, and an impressive 12.3 K/9 Justin is a legitimate high-leverage pitcher. With Hector Rondon just finding his way, after months of questionable play and the impressive Carl Edwards Jr having an extremely rough month – a high-leverage arm made tons of sense.
But Wilson wasn’t acquired just for the regular season. The Cubs have HUGE expectations for him in the playoffs.
Playoff baseball is a completely different game from a pitching perspective. Look no further than the World Series which no Cubs pitcher pitched more than 6.0 innings in a game. The playoffs become more about matchups than dominating pitching performances. Well, unless you have one of those dominating starting pitchers anyway…
Wilson can come into a game with runners on and strike out multiple batters – is an enormous weapon. This would give the Cubs a pen that features Mike Montgomery, Pedro Strop, Wilson, Rondon, and Wade Davis. That is pretty insane.
An additionally important note, Wilson is under contract through the end of the 2018 season. If Davis leaves in the offseason, Wilson would certainly compete for the closer’s role with Rondon and Edwards.
Alex Avila
I’m not exactly sure how one could question the value Alex Avila brings to the team? He is here to be a backup catcher, who has had experience carrying the load and is an offensive threat. Then Willson Contreras went down to injury and his importance is magnified. Sure, as of this writing he has an average of .173 (after his second at-bat in Wednesday night’s contest with the Cincinnati Reds) but he is still batting .261 on the season. He still has a .852 OPS and he still has a 2.1 WAR. Most importantly, he has nine years of major league experience – something Victor Caratini does not.
Avila was never intended to be a guy that fought Contreras for the starting role. But he adds some versatility to the Cubs lineup. Maddon could pen Avila in at catcher, and Willson in left field, which gives Willy a mini day off. Alex has also played 40 games at first, which allows the team to give Anthony Rizzo a day off – which has become more important since his back has flared up at times this season.
Alex will be important once the playoffs begin as well. If you recall Game 7, the Cubs used all three catchers on their roster. In fact, in eight of the Cubs playoff games, they used multiple catchers. Avila gives the team some of that same flexibility again. Sure Victor could allow Joe to pinch hit or do double switches late in games, but he doesn’t have the presence or experience that Alex does.
The Prospects
Sure, the Cubs gave up potential, and in the third consecutive in-season trade the Cubs gave up their top rated prospect. The first was Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman. The second was Eloy Jiminez for Jose Quintana. The last was Jeirmer Candelario for Wilson and Avila. These deals have led a lot of fans to believe the Cubs’ minor leagues are void of talent. While the team is pretty bare at the top levels of their system, they are flourishing in the lower levels.
What hasn’t really been graded or added to the Cubs system yet is this year’s draftees. As Bleacher Report’s Andrew Gould mentioned, “they (Cubs) spent 2017’s MLB draft searching for pitchers to preserve a balanced future.”
Preserving their future is what they did in selecting pitchers in their first five selections. Brendan Little possessed the best curveball in the draft. LSU Tiger’s Ace Alex Lange, although picked after Little, is expected to be a much better pitcher. Of the top three pitchers selected, each features a damaging curve, a pitch that is having a bit of a renaissance in baseball.
The Cubs are also expected to be rather aggressive in the international markets this offseason. Further adding depth to a prospect pool which will again be a top talent producer in a few short years.
I know I can’t sway you to like the Cubs and Tigers trade, but this deal really did work in the Cubs favor. If there are a couple more long playoff runs, I’m sure Candelario will be but a distant memory.
