Maybe you are like myself, or maybe you aren’t, but I generally rely heavily on Baseball Prospectus for a ton of baseball information. They are great at explaining why and how something happened, and does so in a way which helps their readers understand the game on a different level. While they are always phenomenal, this time of year they simply outdo themselves. It is all due to – PECOTA. This is Baseball Prospectus’ annual prediction of wins, and they are simply the bible of predictions and PECOTA is their North star.
With the Chicago Cubs coming off of their first World Series in the past 108 years, one would imagine the Cubs would be expected to continue their great success. Well… even though Baseball Prospectus expects the Cubs to do well, they are only predicting 91 wins. Those 91 wins are good enough for the fourth best record in baseball, and second in the National League.
Yes, Baseball Prospectus is predicting that the Cubs finish seven games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL. They also predict that they will finish a game behind the Cleveland Indians, the team the Cubs beat in the 2016 World Series.
Although you might feel a bit slighted, there very well could be some championship hangover. I, as well as many other Cubs fans, will still expect this team to compete for a title. BP still expects the Cubs to make the playoffs, just not as the best team in baseball.
Interestingly enough, they predict 12 American League hitters and six National League hitters to blast 30 home runs or more. Three of those hitters are Cubs; Anthony Rizzo (31), Kyle Schwarber (31), and Kris Bryant (33). They also are predicting that the Cubs new closer, Wade Davis, leads the league in saves (41).
