The National League Cy Young race has been an extremely tight, and tomorrow at 6:00 p.m. Eastern we will finally hear who the winner is.
In anticipation of this award, I have been speaking with several members of Baseball Writers Association of America, inquiring about who they believe will win the 2015 NL Cy Young Award. While most suggest an extremely close contest, one even suggested the closest ever, they are pointing to Jake Arrieta as the Cy Young winner.
“Arrieta will barely nudge out Greinke in one of the closest Cy Young votes we’ve ever seen,” penned Mark Zuckerman for Nats Insider.
Zuckerman has voted for multiple Cy Young awards in the past, and has voted for the eventual winner in his last two votes (the BBWAA website only list individual votes back to the 2012 season).
Mark isn’t alone, as I polled some other members they continued to come back with Arrieta’s name.
@rljmb23 my guess is Arrieta will be a clear winner
— Zach Buchanan (@ZHBuchanan) November 18, 2015
@rljmb23 guessing Arietta and Keuchel.
— Justin McGuire (@JMcGuireMLB) November 18, 2015
While sure this is just a couple of voters that are out there, but many others have agreed with them since Jake Arrieta became a superhuman while pitching down the stretch.
Our own Chicago Sun Times writer, Gordon Wittenmyer, wrote on how Jake’s final stretch was the “icing on the cake” in his Cy Young campaign. Additionally NBC Sports’ Joe Posnanski wrote after he had just earned a Cy Young vote last season, and was somewhat unsure then, he would certainly give his view to Jake in 2015.
The Daily Herald’s Bruce Miles threw in this tid bit as well.
Arrieta fifth pitcher with 22 Ws with no more than 6 losses and an ERA below 2.00 since earned run became official in 1913. #Cubs (1)
— Bruce Miles (@BruceMiles2112) October 3, 2015
(2) Previous four pitchers in Arrieta tweet were unanimous Cy Young winners: Koufax, McLain, Guidry and Gooden. #Cubs
— Bruce Miles (@BruceMiles2112) October 3, 2015
That makes it seem like a pretty good bet that Jake will need to clean off some room on his mantle for the most prestigious award a pitcher can be awarded. While yes, this is a small sample size, these are guys that have voted on the award in the past, and know what other voters typically look at when voting on an award that can often come down to which stat a voter weighs as more important. Joe Posnanski mentioned he would rely on the pitcher’s road numbers to help with his vote.
Arrieta: 12-1, 1.68 ERA, 4.9-to-1 strikeout to walk, 4 homers allowed
Greinke: 9-2, 1.88 ERA, 4.2-to-1 strikeout to walk, 6 homers allowed
Kerhsaw: 5-4, 2.60 ERA, 6-to-1 strikeout to walk, 9 homers allowed
If someone is still confused, Bill James and Rob Neyer co-authored a book “The Neyer/James Guide To Pitchers” which has created a mathematical equation, based on past outcomes, to predict who will win the Cy Young. The equation, (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB where VB is a victory bonus of 12-points if you lead your team to the division championship. Here is how Jake weighs out against the competition.
It wasn’t all roses, rainbows, and unicorns when I looked around for some clues as to who would win. When speaking with Nick Groce of the Denver Post, he mentioned voters are split on not only Jake or Zack Greinke, but are also including Clayton Kershaw in the mix as well.
@rljmb23 I'll say who I voted for tmrw. But I polled like 40 people late season, players, coaches, writers, tv/radio, seamheads. 3-way split
— Nick Groke (@nickgroke) November 18, 2015
A lot of voters were ready to give Zack the award after the first three months of the season, and why wouldnt they? Not only were both Jake and Clayton hovering around .500 with ERAs in the 3.00’s, but Zack was just a wizard on the mound. Then both Jake and Clayton began their late season surge. While fantastic, neither were able to sway some voters.
I’d vote Greinke, followed by Arrieta, Kershaw right now. https://t.co/lJSdQYHwq2
— John Fay (@johnfayman) September 24, 2015
Chicago Cubs writer Carrie Muskat was sure to remind anyone who forgot about Arrieta’s season by restating his extremely strong case for the NL award. Here are some of her bullet points on Arrieta?
• Arrieta is the fifth pitcher with at least 22 wins and no more than six losses and an ERA under 2.00 since the ERA became an official stat in 1912 in the NL. The others include Koufax (1963), Denny McLain (’68), Ron Guidry (’78) and Dwight Gooden (’85).
• From Aug. 4 to the end of the season, Arrieta compiled a 0.41 ERA, giving up four earned runs over 88 1/3 innings, and was 11-0 in 12 starts. It’s the lowest ERA for any pitcher from Aug. 1 to the end of the season since ERA became an official stat.
• Arrieta posted a 0.75 ERA and went 12-1 with two complete-game shutouts in 15 starts in the second half. It’s the lowest second-half ERA since the All-Star Game was instituted in 1933. And Arrieta finished the first half with a complete game two-hitter against the White Sox on July 12.
If Arrieta does take home the award, like we are anticipating, the Cubs would join the the 1983 Chicago White Sox as the only team to have the Rookie of the Year, Manager of the year, and Cy Young award winner for their league.
“@JamesSmyth621: Only team with Mgr of Year, RoY &Cy Young: 1983 White Sox (La Russa, Kittle, Hoyt). 2015 Cubs could join them.” #arrieta
— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubMLB) November 18, 2015
The award will officially be announced Wednesday at 6 p.m. Eastern on MLB Network.
