There are Cubs projections from just about everywhere nowadays, but there are only a couple that actually use science behind them to tell fans how the team will do. One of those projections, and by far the best one in the baseball-universe is, ZiPS.
ZiPS uses a number of stats and data to give the best overall projections of how a player will perform in a given year. Yesterday the creator of ZiPS projections posted the 2016 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs, and what we read is very exciting.
Cubs Projections – Hitters
Of course the biggest names on the Cubs offense are those of Anthony RIzzo, Kris Bryant, and the newcomer – Jason Heyward. Dave Szymborski (the creator of ZiPS) tells that the combined WAR (which seems to regress by rule) is expected to be 15 between the trio. That number is better than eight teams in 2015. EIGHT TEAMS!
The Cubs do have some question marks, like where Javier Baez will play, and the total contribution of Kyle Schwarber as he will undoubtedly show some signs of defensive struggles in left field, but all in all the Cubs lineup should prove to be a force to be reckoned with in 2016.
How do you like those numbers out of Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez!? Combined 115 home runs and 376 RBIs between them. Those four, with Ben Zobrist and Heyward should prove to create a very dangerous lineup in 2016.
Cubs Projections – Pitching
The Cubs projections for their pitching staff can be equally as exciting. While ZiPS might not be predicting Jake Arrieta to have another season like he did in 2015 (and who in their right mind can predict an otherworldly performance) they do suggest that he will have another stellar season in 2016. With a 5.4zWAR, he is currently the clubhouse leader in that category from the teams already with ZiPS projections. That short list already includes the likes of Felix Hernandez and David Price.
Equally impressive are the expected seasons from Jon Lester, Pedro Strop, Hector Rondon, and the pitcher acquired in the Starlin Castro trade – Adam Warren. All with projected ERAs under 3.00 (Warren is projected at 3.01) the pitching staff, should excel once again in 2015.
As Szymborski points out, the backend of the Cubs bullpen are consisted of mostly castoffs from other teams, and their attractive price tag (under $10 million combined) gives great value to the team – even if there are some headaches throughout a season.
A very interesting piece is who they compare Arrieta to, Orel Hershiser. Perhaps it was his scoreless streak that he took into the playoffs, or his ability to command the zone, but either way being compared to Orel is a very big compliment.
Something of concern is that they are not predicting a single Cubs pitcher to surpass 200 innings in 2016. While this could just be the regression that is naturally built into ZiPS, or them projecting injury, that is definitely something to watch next season.
If that all wasn’t enough to get you excited for the 2016 season, then how about ZiPS WAR projection based on the Cubs depth chart!
The asterisks and number correspond to the projected WAR of each player, or combined in terms of the bullpen. That is a combined 54 WAR.
54 WAR!!!
So, whatcha think Chicago Cubs fans? Is this enough to get you excited for the 2016 season? Let us know in the comments!
