Go home Fangraphs, you’re drunk.
That’s what most Chicago Cubs fans are saying after they are catching wind of Fangraphs up-to-date favorite to win the World Series.
Fangraphs has tracked the odds all season, and all season the Chicago Cubs have been the favorites. That all changed today as the Boston Red Sox overcame the Cubs to have the best shot.
Of course Fangraphs uses all sorts of sophisticated algorithms and metrics to determine each teams chances of winning. What is odd is, the team with the best record, potentially the best defense of all-time, and best pitching staff – could play second fiddle to the Boston Red Sox!?
Well don’t worry Cubs fans, there is a bit of logic behind this.
The Cubs are coming off a stretch in which they are playing just .500 baseball in their last 10 games, while Boston has played at a .700 clip during that same period. While that alone isn’t enough for a 85 win team to leap a 94 win team, this second point just might.
The American League holds home field advantage in the World Series, due to a stupid idea from then commissioner Bud Selig in an attempt to get fans to watch the All Star Game again. Because players from 14 other teams helped the American League win, and players from 14 other teams helped the National League lose, the AL representative will have home field during the fall classic.
It is a dumb rule, which has long over stayed it’s due, and looking at things from Fangraphs’ perspective, makes Boston a more favorable champion than any NL team, including the Cubs.
This doesn’t matter much as this time last year many folks pointed to the Cubs as the World Series favorite in 2015.
