So I know only about 1,000 to 3,000 people will end up opening this up and reading it and hopefully, that is enough to ensure a lot of insanity surrounding some of the Chicago Cubs “trade rumors” that are getting passed around stop. I know this time of year is fun, the possibilities of what could be, the anticipation of what’s to come, the predictions of how the team can improve… but it all has to make some sort of sense.
I am seeing Cubs fans post things like, “I just read the Cubs are offering Ian Happ and Mike Montgomery for Jacob deGrom! What do you think!?”
Well, honestly, I think it’s horse sh&%.
You didn’t read that, you made it up, and it is a very poor estimation of what a trade would need to look like to get deGrom.
So to hopefully help, I’m going to give you a more realistic look at what it would take to acquire deGrom or any of the other potentially available trade candidates.
Jacob deGrom
Ok, here’s the thing… deGrom might be the third best pitcher in baseball. Any sort of trade scenario with the Cubs will have to include Ian Happ – and so much more. We are talking Happ, David Bote, Victor Caratini, Mike Montgomery, and likely another prospect or two (Adbert Alzolay, Alex Lange, someone along those lines). Even with a package like this, the Milwaukee Brewers or the New York Yankees or several other teams could jump the Cubs offer and give a more enticing package.
Realistically, deGrom isn’t going to be traded this season. It might happen in the offseason, and if it does the Cubs could potentially become more aggressive in their pursuit. At that point, the Cubs could look to add Javier Baez or Albert Almora in the mix or even one of their international signees from last month. That would open a spot up for a Manny Machado or Bryce Harper.
Zach Britton
I think many Cubs fans are over-valuing Britton in this case and not the Cubs players as much (which is odd). With Brandon Morrow going on the 10-Day DL for the second time this season, the idea of acquiring a closer is possibly more important. However, while I think a lot of people look at Britton as that lights-out closer that he has been for many years, I don’t know if he is that right now. Britton is coming off an injury and hasn’t pitched great since his return, and do you replace one injury-prone pitcher with someone who just came off the DL himself?
This is a guy that can burn the Baltimore Orioles. If he is traded now and he regains his exceptional form, they might not get full value for him. If they wait and he doesn’t regain form, he might just leave via free agency. Or if they wait and he settles in as the Britton of old, perhaps his price becomes too high for the teams looking to add a back of the pen pitcher.
I see the Cubs interested, but I see them interested in picking up a guy with upside and buying low on him. I don’t see them breaking the bank, for the third year in a row, for a closer (who likely wouldn’t be the closer on this team). Personally, if the Cubs are to acquire him, I think it’s during a waiver trade and not before July 31st. At that point, it could end up costing the Cubs minor league pitching for the two months of his services. Maybe Alzolay and another prospect. Maybe there’s negotiation up to adding an MLB roster or MLB ready player, but I don’t think the Cubs are interested enough to deal someone like Happ, who in 589 plate appearances (about a full MLB season) has 35 HR, 100 R, 94 RBI, a slash line of .254/.349/.490, .839 OPS, and has played six different positions.
J.A. Happ
Here’s a deal that confuses me. J.A. Happ isn’t better than Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, or Yu Darvish. He is better than Tyler Chatwood, but are you trading several players for a fifth starter, someone who is borderline to even make a playoff roster?
I mean, Happ can offer the Cubs insurance for Darvish, in the event that he doesn’t return this season, but even then there isn’t a team that is fearful of a Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Happ foursome.
A deal for Happ would, again, likely include Ian Happ in return. Then you are looking at Montgomery, or Lange or Alzolay. For a likely fourth starter, that will leave in the offseason, I just don’t think this is a real possibility.
What I think will happen
I absolutely think the Cubs will be making some moves. I just don’t think they are doing the type of deals a lot of Cubs fans are posting all over Twitter and Cubs fan pages on Facebook. I think this team is looking at the swingman type of pitcher, perhaps a high-leverage guy for the backend of the pen, and a veteran outfield bat.
The swingman makes sense in the event that the Cubs do need a starter for a good chunk of the remainder of the season. With Mike Montgomery likely filling in as a starter, the Cubs will need a long man reliever or someone that can spot start here-or-there. Guys like the Detroit Tigers pitcher, Francisco Liriano.
Francisco Liriano
Here is a guy that has pitched in 84 games in the past three seasons, and started in 62 of them. Now, Francisco isn’t the most impressive pitcher in the league, but he is a veteran that will tough out some games for you. While he has been the starter in all of his appearances in 2018, he almost perfectly split his time between starter and reliever in 2017 for the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros.
In the starts, Liriano had a pretty bad 5.88 ERA. In his relief appearances, he had a better 4.40.
The kicker is he isn’t going to cost the Cubs very much at all. Maybe someone like Mark Zagunis, or someone of his ilk.
Now no one starts buying Cubs World Series tickets because they acquired Francisco Liriano, and it won’t be as sexy as the Los Angeles Dodgers trade for Manny Machado or whatever the Milwaukee Brewers end up doing… but if the Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer start making trades to answer other team’s deals – they’ll quickly run the organization into the ground. This whole deal is about sustained success and the ability to compete year-after-year, Zagunis has no real future in Chicago and this is how he can help the organization.
Other moves
I can see the Cubs adding another veteran to the mix. I had stated this in the past, and it seemed to be reaffirmed a few weeks ago when the Cubs were rumored to be interested in Curtis Granderson or Adam Jones.
A lot of Cubs fans rejected this idea, “there’s no room for them!” Or, “where will he play!?”
Luckily that’s not on us to figure out… But in all seriousness I would see the Cubs sending someone down until the September 1st call-ups, allowing the veteran bat to remain on the roster. Someone like Tommy La Stella can be sent to the minors (he has one option remaining) or the Cubs could go with 12 pitchers instead of the 13 they currently have on the roster.
I don’t think the Cubs would acquire a veteran, leadership, clubhouse type to take a lot of playing time away from the current outfielders. But these types of guys are important. Remember the impact that David Ross seemed to have on the clubhouse, remember the impact Dexter Fowler seemed to have on the clubhouse (he probably wasn’t a “veteran” in the true sense). The players from that 2016 team have spoken time and time again on how important these guys were. They would talk about Ross and his impact on the clubhouse, hell, they wouldn’t leave him alone all last season as David continued to try and do other things.
If you don’t understand or refuse to accept how important these guys are, read this article on how Carlos Beltran was the reason the Astros won the World Series.
Now, Granderson isn’t going to cost the Cubs much at all. He isn’t going to scorch the NL Central, but a guy that goes about his business, the right way. This isn’t to say that the current roster doesn’t go about their business the right way. But, when you are there every day with a guy that has been in this league for 10 years, 12 years, 15 years – they go about things, day-in-day-out is just different than a guy that is one or two years into their career.
But that isn’t all. They see how a veteran deals with adversity. They see how they don’t get too high, or get too low. The get to talk to them, get a deeper understanding from them. Skill gets players only so far. It is hard to survive in the big leagues and any advice or learning as many different ways to survive day-to-day life in the MLB.
I make these posts to promote a social conversation, so chime in. Do you think the Cubs are really in on Jacob deGrom? What about Zach Britton? Are they more likely to look at someone like Francisco Liriano, or how serious are they on the Curtis Granderson or Adam Jones path? Let me know in the comments.
