I have always been the reserved type when talking about expectations on the Chicago Cubs. I have warned others to “enjoy the ride” or “they don’t have to win this year” and essentially I am right in doing this, in a sense. But there still is that crazy side, that little boy in me that is punch drunk on Cubbie Kool-Aid that is giddy knowing how this season very well could end.
I have watched all season long as the Cubs have systematically dismantled their competition. I have watched as they outscored other teams by 252 runs. I have watched the team field the ball perhaps better than any team has ever fielded the ball. I have watched the team’s pitching staff become the best in baseball. I have watched the Cubs hitters surgically destroy opposing pitchers nightly.
Then we hear the disclaimers coming into he playoffs, gotta be playing your best ball at this time of year, teams that play defense and pitch do better in the playoffs, teams that score significantly more runs than they give up tend to have more success. Check, check, and check. The Cubs do all of these things, and have done it better than any other team in baseball, which, news flash, includes the other teams in the playoffs.
Here is how the Cubs matchup against the other playoff teams, in the most important categories used to predict success.
| National League | Sept Record | Run Differ | Rotation ERA | Bullpen ERA | Def Runs Saved |
| Chi Cubs | 17-10 | 252 | 2.96 | 3.56 | 82 |
| Was Nationals | 15-12 | 151 | 3.60 | 3.37 | -15 |
| LA Dodgers | 17-10 | 87 | 3.95 | 3.35 | 29 |
| SF Giants | 13-15 | 84 | 3.71 | 3.65 | 50 |
| NY Mets | 17-10 | 54 | 3.61 | 3.53 | -21 |
| American League | |||||
| Bos Red Sox | 19-8 | 184 | 4.22 | 3.56 | 48 |
| Cle Indians | 16-11 | 101 | 4.08 | 3.45 | 17 |
| Tex Rangers | 15-11 | 8 | 4.38 | 4.40 | -1 |
| Tor Blue Jays | 11-16 | 93 | 3.64 | 4.11 | 28 |
| Balt Orioles | 16-11 | 29 | 4.72 | 3.40 | -25 |
The Cubs had the second best record in September (behind the Red Sox), the best rotation ERA, the sixth best bullpen ERA (two of those teams might not advance past tomorrow), and have saved 32 more runs than the next closest defense. Add in the team has played .630 ball in September, everything bodes extremely well for this Cubs team.
Sure there will be some that bring up, “teams that rely on the home run tend to do very well.” Ok that is a thing. There is some legit credit to relying on a home run to score. Run scoring chances are much more limited in the playoffs, since you are playing the best of the best. The Mets, who could be eliminated tomorrow night, scored 55% of their runs via the home run this season. This is an incredible mark, and even if there are less scoring chances, lifting a ball into the stands is a way to, “produce,” in low scoring games.
Here’s the thing with that, the Mets have scored 671 runs this season, which is fifth worse in all of baseball. When you are bad at scoring, your ratio of runs scored via the homer will of course be much higher. The Cubs have scored 137 more runs than the Mets, and while New York has hit 19 more home runs on the season, I am certain many would take the Cubs ability to manufacture runs than waiting for someone to hit a moonshot to save the day.
Additionally, it is hard to hit home runs off pitchers that don’t allow balls to be hit very hard. Of the Cubs starting pitchers likely to pitch in the playoffs (Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, and John Lackey) three of them are in the top 10 for allowing the least amount of hard hit balls.
| Name | Team | Hard% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 24.50% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 24.70% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | 25.20% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 25.90% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | 25.90% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 26.80% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | 27.20% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 27.60% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 27.80% |
Coincidently, there are only three other pitchers in the playoffs on this list. This should speak volumes for the quality of the Cubs staff, but also tell you – these guys are not going to be giving up many hard hit balls or home runs.
Offensively, the Cubs have been the best in the league at extending their at bats all season. They finished the year seeing 25,161 pitches, or 3.96 per plate appearance. Even if a pitcher were to face the minimum against the Cubs, it would take 108 pitches to do so (if you averaged this out). With opposing pitchers struggling to see the sixth, seventh and eight innings against the Cubs for much of the year, the Cubs have forced opposing staffs to throw 155 pitches per game, tiring the starters out early on.
Sure, someone will say that in the playoffs the Cubs will face much better starters, guys that will throw more strikes. This plays right into the Cubs strengths. Go ahead and leave fastballs over the plate for Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant. Go ahead and see what a veteran guy like Ben Zobrist will do when you go at him. Watch Dexter Fowler produce like he did in last year’s playoffs, and see how far Jorge Soler will put that meat fastball if you go at him.
| National League | Zone Swing % | Zone Contact % | Hard Hit% | Med Hit% |
| Chi Cubs | 66.7% | 84.7% | 30.8% | 49.7% |
| Was Nationals | 64.2% | 86.9% | 32.8% | 49.1% |
| LA Dodgers | 67.5% | 86.5% | 33.4% | 49.7% |
| SF Giants | 68.7% | 88.5% | 29.0% | 50.7% |
| NY Mets | 66.6% | 87.4% | 33.6% | 47.3% |
| American League | ||||
| Bos Red Sox | 62.8% | 89.2% | 33.4% | 47.3% |
| Cle Indians | 68.3% | 86.8% | 30.8% | 51.5% |
| Tex Rangers | 64.8% | 86.7% | 31.4% | 49.6% |
| Tor Blue Jays | 64.3% | 85.2% | 33.1% | 47.7% |
| Balt Orioles | 67.9% | 84.7% | 32.7% | 47.0% |
While certainly not the most dangerous team offensively, when you do give them chances, the Cubs pitching staff ends up locking down the door for potential comebacks. Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that there is a certain 100+ MPH hurler ready in the ninth to stop any thoughts of a potential late inning run.
It is ok to be excited Cubs fans even if this doesn’t end in a title. This team is great, it has as good or better of a chance than any other team, and is built specifically for this next month of baseball. So don’t you dare go on a fall getaway, plan birthday parties around the Cubs postseason schedule, and block off those calendars into early November. This will be the most fun month of our fandom lives.
