We have all assumed that the Chicago Cubs will make a move sooner or later. This thought had been bandied about since the start of the offseason. From the moment Theo Epstein sat down and discussed the failures of 2019, he began to suggest there will be trades this year.
It does “feel” like this is a year late, or that Epstein and General Manager, Jed Hoyer, are trying to make up for their own failures. Now, because of their inability to make the playoffs in 2019, they’re forced to overreact in an effort to reload on the fly.
During that end of the season press conference, Theo suggested that if the team couldn’t work out extensions with Javier Baez or Kris Bryant, they would likely look to trade either. There is a passionate love affair between Baez and Cubs fans, making trading him a tough pill to swallow. It’s also difficult to fathom a trade of Bryant, the player that sparked the championship era in Chicago.
There has also been a lot of talk about trading Willson Contreras, something I explained in greater detail here. In a recent article, ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests, “Contreras is the name bandied about the most.”
Passan also goes on to tell us that the Cubs have been very aggressive in looking to trade, “someone or ‘someone’s’” this offseason. They are so set on moving a player, the suggestion of even trading Anthony Rizzo has come up.
Is it possible?
There is little doubt that the Cubs will move a core player this offseason. Whoever that player is, it will be a necessary mistake.
I say necessary mistake because if they were to trade Contreras, Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, or Kyle Schwarber they will certainly produce wherever they go. They will continue to have a better career than any single player they receive in return. But… there are too many holes throughout the organization that can’t be filled as fast as they need them to be through the natural progression of things.
If I were to rate the possible moves on a more likely to least likely scale, here’s how it would pan.
Most likely – Contreras
Contreras is a very attractive trade piece. He has a very low first-time arb figure (around $5 million) is young and has shown enough to get opposing GM’s mouth’s watering and will command a rather decent return. The Cubs are also incredibly deep at the catching position, can make due with Victor Caratini as the main backstop in 2020 and continue to promote from within in years 2021, 2022, and beyond.
High possibility – Bryant
This one, and if you’ve read my content in the past would come as no surprise, baffles the absolute shit out of me. Bryant is a generational-type of talent, has been the most valued offensive player in the National League since he’s been here and the market on Bryant’s future deal is already set. With Bryant telling the world he wants to discuss long-term deals to stay in Chicago. His agent, Scott Boras telling the world Bryant wants to discuss a long-term deal to stay in Chicago. My only guess is – the Cubs just don’t want him to stay in Chicago – otherwise the deal would be done. This is why I think the Cubs can very likely trade him this offseason, and any team interested will need to pay a ton even with the potential service time manipulation/grievance risk.
Not very likely – Javier Baez
For the Cubs to seriously pursue trading Baez, the talks on an extension at the Winter Meetings will have to be a complete and utter failure. Baez and his team will need to come in with a much higher than market price. The Cubs will have to come in at an extremely low price. They will need to have different ideas on Baez’s scope for the future. This would just have to go historically bad, like worse than the worst Bears flub-up bad. Even if they aren’t able to lock down a deal this offseason, it isn’t likely that the Cubs move Baez, especially with some lost leverage in non-tendering Addison Russell. They can’t toss Nico Hoerner out there every day, and David Bote or any of the other MLB roster players just aren’t everyday shortstop material.
It is laughable that it was even brought up – Anthony Rizzo
So, there are just too many reasons this isn’t going to happen. The low-cost deal, the leadership, the production, the defense. What he’s meant to the organization, how entrenched he is in the organization. I just cannot fathom the Cubs actually entertaining a deal for Rizzo. Maybe, just to ensure he wasn’t lying, Theo took a call on him to say that there are no untouchables, but seriously I don’t think this is a real possibility.
Others that can be moved
There are a couple of good candidates on the roster that can be moved this offseason. Guys like Ian Happ have drawn interest in the past and have likely garnered some conversation this offseason. Albert Almora screams of a guy that needs a new address to figure things out. A guy that could benefit from 150 or more starts a year in centerfield. Either Bote or Hoerner can be moved in a deal that acquires a young and controlled middle infielder that can start.
