How do you treat the first real acquisition your franchise made that turned things around? The guy that came out and became your emotional and vocal leader. The guy that kept his nose out of controversy and put up some of the league’s best numbers? Perhaps one of the most reliable players in the league today? Most organizations would essentially hand over a blank check and do whatever it took to keep him around. The Chicago Cubs on the other hand continue to send lowball offer after lowball offer, expecting Anthony Rizzo or his agents to change their minds on the insulting terms they throw his way.
Now, my words are strong, I don’t know exactly what the Cubs offered Rizzo and Jed Hoyer suggests he’s more aware of the details than what is out there. (Ah, good, I hope so, you’re the one making the ridiculous offer). But you can’t help but be concerned at this point that 2021 will absolutely be the final year of Rizzo in a Cubs uniform – and that sucks.
Rizzo joined David Kaplan and Jonathan Hood this morning on ESPN 1000, and the conversation moved towards the extension. This is where Rizzo essentially gave the impression that he gave the Cubs two years to work this out and they haven’t improved their position, so now he’s done listening till after the season.
“I don’t think there’s a reason to listen right now,” Rizzo told Kap and J-Hood. “I think I gave them every fair opportunity in the past years.”
If the Cubs changed positions and offered Rizzo something better than the offer already sent, he will take the call from Marc Pollack (his agent). I just don’t think Rizzo will appreciate carving out any bandwidth during the season for something that he feels should have been done already and isn’t feeling wanted or respected in the process.
“I have told them it’s time to play baseball and help this team win,” Rizzo instructed his agents. “When we talk, it’s about our team and how we’re feeling as a team and other opportunities that come up.
“As far as the contract stuff, it’s just smart, I think, on all ends to continue to play baseball.”
For some clarity, Rizzo’s $16.5m 2021 salary is MLB’s ninth-highest salary among first baseman. He and Jose Abreu are separated by $1.166m, and Abreu is in the seventh spot (and is coming off an MVP season at age 34). After Abreu there is a jump up to $21m for Eric Hosmer.
So, what truly is Rizzo’s value?
We can’t put value on leadership, there simply is no way to factor that into salary. I will say (unfortunately) the Cubs have advanced past the NLDS once since Rizzo was the true leader voice in the clubhouse. I’m not trying to knock Rizz here, but that is the truth of the matter.
Between the years of 2014 and 2019, Fangraphs puts a value of $209.3 million on Rizzo’s performance. That is an average of nearly $35 million a season. Should Rizzo get that? No. No player gets what his value is, and every position should be considered a little differently.
When we rank MLB first basemen on Fangraphs, Rizzo is the third most valuable between 2014-19. (Why do I use 2019 as a stopping point? Cause I think you’d have to be a dang fool to factor 2020 into any real conversation about production) During that time, Rizzo has the third highest fWAR (26.4), second most HR (179), third highest wRC+ (141), and fifth highest OPS.
Of the other names in the top five (Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, and Jose Abreu – there are some others but they have played multiple other positions) only Goldschmidt and Rizzo have won multiple Gold Glove Awards – and Rizzo has double the awards that Goldy does.
Here is the current list of the top 10 highest paid first baseman, with the age they signed their deal:
- Albert Pujols, $30m, 32 yrs old (10 yrs, $240m)
- Paul Goldschmidt, $26m, 31 yrs old (5 yrs, $130m)
- Joey Votto, $25m, 30 yrs old (10 yrs, $225m)
- Freddie Freeman, $22.4m, 24 yrs old (8 yrs, $135m)
- Chris Davis, $21m, 30 yrs old (7 yrs, $161m)
- Eric Hosmer, $21m, 28 yrs old (8 yrs, $144m)
- Jose Abreu, $17.67m, 33 yrs old (3 yrs, $50m)
- Brandon Belt, $17.2m, 28 yrs old (5 yrs, $72.8m)
- Anthony Rizzo, $16.5m, 23 yrs old (7 yrs, $41m)
- Miguel Sano, $11m, 27 yrs old (3 yrs, $30m)
Do we get any closer to pinpointing Rizzo’s value after reviewing those contracts? I don’t know, maybe? With how close Rizzo’s and Goldy’s numbers are, it would make sense that Rizzo’s deal is closer to that deal.
Rizzo will be one year older than Goldy was, but their numbers are pretty close.
- Rizzo (since 2014): .901 OPS, 26.4 WAR, 141 wRC+, 179 HR, 539 R, 4 GG
- Goldy: .924 OPS, 29.7 WAR, 142 wRC+, 179 HR, 593 R, 2 GG
So, if Goldy was younger and slightly better, it is fine to suggest Rizzo’s max is slightly less than Goldschmidt’s deal? Right? So, perhaps you cut a year, or instead of $26m AAV, Rizzo gets something like $21m AAV? That puts him in that Hosmer territory, which Rizzo has outperformed nearly every season.
- 2017: Rizzo 4.1 WAR/Homser 4.0 WAR
- 2018: Rizzo 2.9 WAR/Hosmer -0.1 WAR
- 2019: Rizzo 4.0 WAR/Hosmer -0.4 WAR
I mean, if Hosmer is worth his $21m AAV – HOW THE HELL ISN’T RIZZO WORTH IT!?!?
Hosmer has 4 Gold Gloves, as does Rizzo. But outside of that, Rizzo has been a FAR superior player than Hosmer. Hosmer’s highest OPS is .882 in the 2017 season, Rizzo’s is .928 in the 2016 season.
This just tells me the Cubs should throw Rizzo something like four-years, $88 million. That puts him above Hosmer, below Goldy, and is probably a good place. It keeps Rizzo under contract through the 2025 season, where he will be 35 (turning 36). Throw a fifth year option on there for similar money and this should be a done deal.
