The most reasonable name that has been rumored as a Chicago Cubs trade target was Toronto Blue Jays infielder, Eric Sogard. Then the Jays turned around and dealt him to the Tampa Bay Rays, which sent the Cubs back to the drawing board. Well, figuratively, as the team always operates with several plans and who knows how *in* the Cubs were anyways.
One thing that the deal to the Rays has me worried about is, if the Cubs are interested in Joe Biagini or Ken Giles, do they have enough to land them? They can be as aggressive as they want to be, but if they’re not willing to part with certain pieces, or their minor leagues are depleted, then it isn’t very likely they’ll land anyone of significant value.
One thing the Cubs do have is, young value at the Major League level. Guys like Albert Almora, Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, Victor Caratini, and even guys like Carl Edwards Jr., and Addison Russell still provide some value.
So, what exactly is out there for the Cubs, and maybe more importantly, what holes do they need filled?
Is a leadoff hitter really important?
So, the answer to this question isn’t exactly, easy. The Cubs flourished with Dexter Fowler at the top of the order. In that 2016 season, some could argue that he was the MVP of the Cubs even with Kris Bryant being MVP of the league.
And while Fowler had some speed, he wasn’t a prototypical leadoff guy. He swiped 33 bases for the Cubs in his two seasons on the Northside, and only 13 of them came in the 2016 season. In fact, throughout his 30 playoff games (all but four with the Cubs) he only swiped 2 bases in those games.
What Fowler excelled at was getting on base. He owned a .367 OBP while in Chicago, with a career high .393 in 2016. In that 2016 season, Fowler had a .390/.483/.720 slash line as the first batter of the game and .328/.439/.561 slash when he led off an inning. To boot, he added 10 homers, 12 doubles, and 2 triples in those at-bats.
Speed, while a bonus, isn’t necessarily a need. The Cubs *need* someone that can get on at the top. The current club has a .208/.276/.438 slash as the first batter of the game. The leadoff man as a whole owns a .218/.289/.398 slash. This causes the two-hole hitter (has mostly been Kris Bryant) to become a leadoff hitter with the added bonus of there being one out.
Looking at this information, who are the potential targets for the Cubs?
David Peralta
So, Peralta isn’t necessarily the leadoff type, but he has done it on 120 occasions in his career. He is following up a 30 homer campaign with just 9 in his 338 plate appearances in 2019, and his increased strikeouts could be a concern (22.2% in 2019 is his career high).
Peralta isn’t going to steal a base for you, as he has a total of 29 over his 649 game big league career. What Peralta can offer is a potent bat and a career .272/.370/.379 slash as the first batter of the game. This is a significant increase over the Cubs current leadoff situation. The only downside to this is, he’s primarily a left fielder and also bats from the left side. He would be taking at bats away from Schwarber, unless the Cubs plan on using him in right field while moving Jason Heyward to center.
Jarrod Dyson
Here’s more of a traditional leadoff type. Dude can swipe a bag for you, and hardly gets caught (40 SB in the past two years, has been caught five times). He will also slot into center, which would potentially mean Albert Almora’s place is in jeopardy. But his slash line of .251/.336/.358 provides little offensive upgrade over Almora. The value he would bring is being able to turn singles or walks into doubles by stealing a base.
What is unimpressive is, Dyson has a .316 OBP as the first batter of the game and a .314 OBP leading off an inning. While his feet will give you an added bonus of providing the two-hole hitter with an early RBI opportunity, it will only happen in about 30% of his at bats. If the second batter comes through with a hit in, say, 30% of those opportunities, you’re only adding around one run over ten games compared to the current makeup of the team.
Do you shakeup team chemistry for the potential of five more runs from now till the end of the season?
Dee Gordon
So, a l Dee Gordon trade is probably five years too late. He used to be a prolific base-stealer in Major League Baseball. He used to be a dynamic hitter. He used to be a valuable leadoff hitter. I’m just not convinced he’s any of those things any longer.
Gordon has never been an extra-base threat. But, he had always been that guy that was immediately dangerous once he got on-base. Not only could he swipe second, he’s one of the few current era players that could consistently steal third as well. And over his career he’s gotten on-base at a .331 clip as the first batter of the game (a 42 point increase over current Cubs leadoff men). But that hasn’t been the case in 2019. In fact, he’s been so bad up top that he’s been mostly hitting ninth in the order.
The ninth spot is often considered the second leadoff spot, and in the AL it can be a very important piece in the order. Turning the lineup over to the top will help score more runs, obviously, and his .327/.352/.408 slash out of the nine-hole is impressive. I just don’t know what he’d offer offensively out of the one-hole, sporting a .237/.262/.237 line up there.
Other bat options
There is hope that the Cubs could tread water long enough for Ben Zobrist to return. But even though he believes he can be ready to play Minor League games this weekend with a scheduled return sometime mid-August. This likely impacted the Cubs pursuit of Eric Sogard, and could impact the pursuit of any other top of the order types.
That would put an emphasis on adding an outfield platoon bat. That said, there are several guys that could add a spark to the club.
Nick Castellanos
Nick has been rumored to be on the Cubs radar seemingly all season. It feels like a marriage pact. One of those, if I don’t find someone and you don’t find someone by July 31st, let’s just pull the trigger.
Castellanos offers a bat, but isn’t a great defensive option. Sure he adds depth, but on a team that already has had defensive issues, why add another?
In any event, Nick provides a right-handed option that can mash lefties (Kyle Schwarber platoon) but he doesn’t scream improvement. The Cubs will pay a premium for a sometimes player and I’m not convinced at how much better he makes the team.
Hunter Pence
Pence has been a late add to the possible mix. He’s definitely on the tail end of a brilliant career, but he’s had a resurgence in Texas. Slashing .289/.343/.556 with 15 homers, can play all three outfield spots, and takes competitive, grindy at bats – I like him a lot.
Truth be told, I loved this dude when he was breaking Cubs fan’s hearts as an Astro, before Houston joined the American League.
Best part, he’s incredibly cheap, the Cubs would pick up like $670k of his current $2 million deal.
The return can’t be much. A couple low-A ball prospects? A small price to pay for someone that can be plugged into any spot in the lineup, any of the three outfield spots, has playoff experience, and a track record of success. It almost makes too much sense.
The deadline is in just a few short hours. As Jed says, you need a deadline for anything to happen. Welp, here’s the deadline, make it happen.
