We have been hearing all offseason that the Chicago Cubs ownership wanted to get under the luxury tax threshold. The belief was that the Ricketts were unhappy with their $7.6 million tax and they pushed a mandate to Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer to get the club under the $208 million Competitive Balance Tax. This offseason had seemed like that was a real possibility. There were trade rumors involving Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, the biggest of the Cubs pillars, as well as other goofy trade ideas.
The Cubs front office seemed to move methodically through this offseason, handing out minor league deals to resurrection projects, and only recently offering MLB deals to free agents. How the front office acted and the rumors we would hear, it sure did look like there was a mandate pushed out.
But according to a source who spoke with NBC Sports David Kaplan, there was no mandate.
Sources confirmed no such mandate from ownership exists. While the Cubs would like to reset under the luxury tax threshold for strategic reasons, ownership is well aware of the financial challenges they are currently dealing with in player payroll. Ownership is also prepared to navigate another year in the luxury tax if the club remains in the playoff picture in 2020.
Strategically speaking, yes, it is a good idea to reset every other year, but realistically it isn’t always possible. When you have a young core that has been excellent players and has signed multiple $20 million deals, eventually you will hit that tax number. That is where the Cubs are at.
The Cubs don’t have all the money, but they have enough. While numbers for the 2019 season aren’t official yet, the Cubs earned $457 million in 2017 and $452 million in 2018. The Cubs didn’t earn a playoff gate in 2019, so one could reasonably expect their revenue to fall somewhere in the $440 to $450 million range. They have added Marquee Sports Network, as well as surrounding revenue-generating means within Wrigleyville. One would reasonably expect that revenues will increase in 2020. The hard thing about revenues is, they don’t know them until the season is over.
While there are no mandates from ownership, the Cubs are at a crossroads of sorts. Is this roster still talented enough to win? Have they invested their money in the wrong guys?
Do the Cubs front office believe that they can plant a flag in the likes of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, and Kyle Schwarber? Are those five better than the roster of the Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, or the St. Louis Cardinals? Do they think that their core will be better than those teams in 2021, 2022, and beyond?
I don’t know how this team looks in 2022, but there should be no reason that the club isn’t competitive in both 2020 and 2021. They do have pitching concerns, and potentially questions in center and second, but this is a roster that is still built to win.
This is why I believe the Cubs front office made the move at manager. They knew the Cubs had a complacency issue, this young core came up, tore the league up, went to the NLCS, won the World Series, then went to another NLCS. I wouldn’t blame them for falling for the idea that they were just better than everyone else. I wouldn’t blame young players that only knew winning for thinking they can just get by on their natural talent alone. Then they had a peace and love dude in the top seat.
I believe that the Cubs’ front office strongly feels moving to an accountability guy in David Ross will be the difference between the Cubs winning 84 games and the Cubs earning a playoff spot. Motivating the current players to play to their expectations is worth way more than any free-agent signing. Personally, I too believe that if there was someone pushing the players to do better instead of always patting their behinds, they would perform as such. You don’t need a red ass all the time, but that happy medium that won’t accept mediocrity.
2020 will define what happens over the next three years. If they compete and win, the front office will keep these guys around. If they fail to earn a playoff spot or fail to compete at the deadline, there will be several moves at the deadline.
