The 2021 MLB Draft is filled with talent. Like, teams with comp picks were able to land ridiculous talent. So when it came to the Chicago Cubs and the 21st pick, we knew they would land a stud. That’s where the Cubs picked up the best lefty in the draft, Jordan Wicks.
Wicks doesn’t possess the huge fastball, like Jack Letter or Kumar Rocker. But he might own the best strikeout pitch in the draft – his changeup.
Here’s a quick look at what Wicks brings to the table.
Jordan Wicks: Kansas State 21 yrs old 6’3″ 220 lbs L/L
- MLB.com #16 prospect, #5 pitcher
- Fastball – 55
- Slider – 55
- Control – 55
- Curve – 45
- Changeup – 65
- Overall – 55
- *Grades based on 70
Here’s why you should like him:
Wicks has a low-to-mid 90s fastball with high spin rates (2,400), he also sports a two-seamer. The two-seam has shown 10.3 inches of vMov, suggesting around 17 inches of vertical break. The four-seam is about average and presents around 6.5 inches of run. With his fastball sitting in the low-to-mid 90s, and league average run, he doesn’t have much room to miss. He mostly worked low in the zone previously, however in 2021 he worked up in the zone more, which Trackman data suggested his FB would run more effectively.
He has a slider that grades out well, however, his curveball is below league average.
But the main event is the changeup. This pitch will get outs at the big league level now. A low-80s pitch with depth and dive, this will be a favorite of Pitching Ninja for years to come. This is his swing-and-miss pitch and will help him be successful at whatever level he is in.
I like his over-the-top delivery, which especially plays to that change. He looks like a minimal effort guy, similar to the Chicago White Sox’s Garret Crochet. While Wicks’ FB isn’t as lively as Crochet’s, their delivery feels similar and you don’t expect the ball to come out as hard as it does.
His future
Wicks has a very mature personality and his body appears to have already matured. While he is a pitcher, his path over the next couple of years might be more similar to that of Nico Hoerner than Adbert Alzolay – a pitcher who had been in the Cubs system since the 2013 season.
I’ve seen many suggest Wicks can start in Double-A Tennessee in 2022. This would put him on the fast track. If that’s the case, assuming his development guess as expected, without setbacks, he could be pitching in Wrigley in 2024!?
I don’t know if that is likely, outside a late-season call-up. I have become shy of rushing pitchers after seeing the careers of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. But, we also have to remember that not all pitchers are alike and there’s more information available in 2021 that wasn’t there in 1998 which provides smarter approaches to pitcher development.
As Wicks continues to develop, expect him to add velocity to that fastball. While he could do nothing and it can play, the spin and his frame do suggest the pitch lab can pull another 2-4 MPH out of it. If he can be at 95-96 and still has an 82-MPH change, I’m not sure how a hitter can consistently cover that spread. (I’m also not a professional hitter, so of course, I couldn’t see it 😂).
I also expect the Cubs to work hard on his curve and slider. If he has two pitches, even if they become elite pitches, hitters can eventually sit on one and hit him. Adding another pitch, making that curve an effective curve, ensures he can be a solid starter in this league.
Outlook
He can be a difference-making pitcher. Think the Baltimore Orioles, John Means. Lefty with a great fastball-change mix and the ability to shut down bats. Wicks did have a 3.70 ERA in 2021 but those 118 strikeouts were impressively high. He has a strong K/BB ratio (4.21) which he should be able to continue to push into his favor.
He isn’t going to be an ace or a number two type of guy. Not to piss in your Cheerios, he isn’t projected to be that guy – and that is ok. He does project as a solid number three and can handle a solid workload. I feel a lot of fans overlook these guys, but these guys make or break seasons. Just look at the 2021 Cubs staff, if they had a John Means type, they would be in a different position (likely not selling).
This also isn’t a “crafty lefty” by any stretch. He is a guy that will get outs by beating bats. That will play in Double-A, Triple-A, and the MLB level.
There are fans that get upset at safe picks, and would rather celebrate that late first-round kid that blows up and becomes an ace. Thing is, there’s a gamble in that pick. Sure, you might end up with a star, but it is much more likely you end up with a bust. By all accounts, Wicks isn’t a bust and should become a good MLB-pitcher rather soon.
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