What in the absolute Sam-hell is going on here!? First there was the acquisition of Ronald Torreyes. Then the Cubs traded Tommy La Stella. Then there was the news/non-news about tendering Addison Russell a contract. NOW THEY ARE ENTERTAINING A SWAP OF WILLSON CONTRERAS FOR JT REALMUTO!?
Breathe, just breathe… (thanks Luke Skywalker)
Here is what I am talking about.
I’m unclear what level of interest the Cubs have in Realmuto but they do. Sources have indicated to me they could move on from Contreras as well.
— Craig Mish (@CraigMish) November 30, 2018
Ok, so what, or how, or what!?
First note, this doesn’t explicitly say that the Cubs would swap the two. It sounds like they would entertain the idea of adding Realmuto, and sure, every baseball team should have some interest in adding someone of his talent level. He is under team control until 2021 (like just about every other Cub) and has consistently hit in a stadium that isn’t known for offense. Defensively it is assumed that Realmuto is better than Contreras, mostly based on a fast pop time, pitch framing ability, and ability to block balls in the dirt. But there was this rather extensive look at the top 30 catchers in baseball which ranks Contreras above Realmuto.
So one place ranks Willson above JT and another ranks JT above Willson. Who are we to trust!?
Personally, as long as Contreras is playing at his potential, there isn’t a question that he is a better player. Realmuto is very good, and he would make the Cubs pitching staff better. But for what Contreras lacks in that ability, he picks it up with the ability to carry a very good ball club, like he did from mid-July through mid-August, 2017.
During that time he hit .311/.380/.700 and lead the Cubs back into the NL Central lead. Every game he did something special, either offensively or defensively (mostly offensively) that showed just how special he could be. The entire team rallied around him and his performance, and kick-started the 2017 Cubs towards their second consecutive Central title.
Realmuto, which very good and more accomplished, hasn’t shown that same ability.
While it doesn’t make that much sense at face level, what this could signal is, the Cubs are looking at a future, bigger move. Here is what I mean.
Realmuto earned $2.9 million in 2018, and is expected to get a bump to around $6.1 m in 2019. If Realmuto continues his production, he will likely see a final arb year salary of around $11.5 million. Contreras on the other hand, is still in pre-arb years and wouldn’t be a free agent until after the 2023 season. Based on his resume and projected improvement rate, Contreras will likely earn around $3 million after his first arb year, likely around $8 million in his second arb year, and potentially $13-15 million in his final arbitration season.
Now, I don’t often suggest or think to move players that have so many years of control, however, moving someone like Contreras while adding Realmuto might increase the payroll on the short-term, but open up future dollars which allow the Cubs to potentially add a bigger name this or next offseason.
More importantly, this helps open more money for that 2021 season when the Cubs will need to find all of the nickels to re-sign guys like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, and Kyle Schwarber. That group, while I would expect two of them to walk, one of them to stay, and one of them to test free agency but remain a Cub, will end up costing north of $30 million a season. Imagine if Baez keeps his tear going!? He and Bryant could become the first teammates to seek $25-35 million annual salaries in the same offseason.
If we look at it, these are somewhat similar offensive players. Willson is a 108 OPS+, whereas Realmuto owns a 111 OPS+. They both have an OPS in the higher 700’s. Contreras has an edge in wOPA (.329 to .344) and wRC+ (108 to 113) but then you look at the slight edge Realmuto has in defensive ability.
A sway of these two, really isn’t the worst thing that could happen for the Cubs. Freeing up salary to make a run at their own potential free agents, or allowing them to go after someone this or next year by opening future dollars that weren’t available before. These are good things. I don’t like the approach, and would hope the Cubs find a way to get Contreras to sign a team friendly, multi-year deal before he hits arbitration, but you can never count on deals like that.
For as boring as the Hot Stove started, it sure is getting real crazy, real fast.
