With the Chicago Cubs clinching the National League Central so early, and being expected to eventually wrap up home field advantage up until the World Series, they have a unique ability to rest starters and set-up their rotation. While coming into the 2016 season, the Cubs rotation looked as such; Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jason Hammel, and Kyle Hendricks. Throughout the season, as rotations do, things got all flipped up, and currently the rotation looks like this:
Arrieta
Hendricks
Hammel
Lester
Lackey
Now this isn’t and exact representation of an order of effectiveness. The current rotation is the result of skipped starts, spot starts, days off, and minor reorganizing by Joe Maddon.
Maddon can reorganize the rotation again. The last game of the Cubs season is October 2nd, and their first playoff game will be October 7th. A full five days in which they can reset the rotation in any fashion they would want.
The general thought is Maddon won’t do anything too crazy, and the Cubs playoff rotation will look like this:
Arrieta
Lester
Hendricks
Lackey (when needed)
Hammel (if needed)
It isn’t controversial, it is consistent with the thought of Jake being the ace and Jon and Kyle following in after.
Or Maddon can flip it upside down completely.
There is a popular thought going around social media which certainly flips the script.
https://twitter.com/Cubs2016champs/status/777346814211158017
If the #Cubs playoff rotation is not Lester and Hendricks in games 1&2, I'll be stunned. Jake and Lackey can handle it on the road.
— Brian Dusza (@thedusz) September 17, 2016
#Cubs playoff rotation
Jon Lester
Kyle Hendricks
Jake Arrieta
John Lackey— sports guy (@dachicagostan) September 15, 2016
How good are the Cubs' starting pitchers? @Kurkjian_ESPN believes Jake Arrieta won't have to pitch until Game 3. pic.twitter.com/KHC6nNrC2A
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 14, 2016
The thought is the Cubs playoff rotation will look like this:
Lester
Hendricks
Arrieta
Lackey (when needed)
Hammel (if needed)
Here is the thought behind it. Lester has been one of the better playoff starters of this current generation, and he has been ridiculous at home in 2016. He is 8-2 at Wrigley with a 1.91 ERA 0.914 WHIP with two complete games. Also, one of his losses was a game he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and lost 2-1.
Hendricks has been even more successful in Wrigley. It has been next to impossible to score off of him, evidenced by his 1.32 home ERA, and almost unbeatable because of how tough he’s been.
Then the Cubs first road starter would be Jake Arrieta. Yeah, you know him. The 2015 Cy Young Award winner, and the NL wins leader in 2016 (thus far). Arrieta has been a bit tougher on the road (0.917 WHIP), even if his earned run average (3.11) doesn’t indicate that. He has however won 11 of his 14 contests on the road.
Then they clean things up with John Lackey. Just like Lester, Lackey was brought to Chicago for his playoff resume, a resume that includes being the only St Louis Cardinal to have ever beat the Cubs in the playoffs.
Not convinced this is good? Well how about this.
The Cubs are playing the winner of the Wild Card play-in game. The expectation is they would pitch their ace in that game. This means, unless they bring him back on only three days rest, their ace will go in Game 3 of the NLDS. That allows the Cubs ace to match up against the Wild Card winner’s ace.
This gives the Cubs a very decided advantage in games one and two, with Lester and Hendricks. Then what very well could be a push with Jake Arrieta in Game 3. Then the Cubs could flip the rotation back over to Lester, or hand the ball over to the third winningest active Pitcher in baseball, John “I’m not here for a haircut” Lackey.
While the Cubs very well could win a series on just being the more talented team as it is, setting up the rotation could very well guarantee at least a first round win.
