In 20 games the Chicago Cubs have a mirrored effort. What I mean is, in the first 10, the Cubs were 3-7 and in the last 10 they are 7-3. Of the early season opponents, the best record belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates, and I’m not sure if anyone believes they’ll remain atop the division throughout the regular season.
Tuesday the Los Angeles Dodgers are ushered into town. In the early season, the Dodgers are clearly the best team in the National League. Out-slugging opponents to the tune of a +29 run differential, and popping 44 homers while only giving up 33.
They aren’t without their warts though.
Clayton Kershaw has only pitched in two games this season, Walker Buehler has been crushed, Kenley Jansen has looked unimpressive, and their bullpen is a heaping pile.
Cubs keys to success
This will be the toughest test for the Cubs this season, so to win they need to be locked and loaded and ready to play near playoff level baseball. I’m not going to say this Series is important, it isn’t more important than the series against the Arizona Diamondbacks or the one coming up against the Seattle Mariners (after another series against the DBacks).
So the first key is going to be, play clean. One thing that has happened with the shift to a three-true-outcome (walk, strikeout, home run) is the elimination of the single. Where teams get in trouble is allowing baserunners that should have been outs. Currently, the Cubs are third worst in baseball with 19 errors in the first 20 games, the Dodgers are fourth best with only 9 errors in 24 games.
Starting pitching. Through the first three innings, the Dodgers are hitting .322/.402/.530. This is typically a slash line one would see the third time through a lineup. One aspect that has added to this is, the Dodgers swing at less pitches than anyone in baseball, and have the highest contact rate when they do swing. Also, when they do swing, the ball tends to go a long way…
Power pitching? Gulp… the 2019 Dodgers have feasted on “finesse” pitchers so far.
Unfortunately for the Cubs, they will send Jose Quintana, Cole Hamels, and Jon Lester (if healthy). Each and every one of them are finesse guys. While you can’t expect Quintana and Hamels to go out and replicate their last performances, they absolutely need to limit damage and give the ball to the pen with a chance to win.
Matchups
Game one presents an interesting game with Quintana matching up against Kenta Maeda. Maeda is 3-1 with a 3.80 ERA and 20 Ks in 23 innings. His WHIP is 1.268, so he’s giving up at least one baserunner per inning.
Game two matchup has Hamels agains Buehler. The Cubs have no history against him. He was outstanding in 2018, but has struggled to the tune of a 5.40 ERA, even though he is 2-0 with a 1.200 WHIP.
Game three has Lester against . Luckily for the Cubs they dodge Rich Hill, who in a tune-up pitched 6 innings, faced 19 hitters, struck out 16, and there were only three balls put into play.
