I’m not dangling too far off a limb when I say Jesse Chavez saved the Chicago Cubs bullpen in the second half of 2018. When the Cubs traded for Chavez there were several question marks, closer Brandon Morrow was on and off the DL, Carl Edwards Jr.had hit the shelf, and the team was asking a lot of several others after Mike Montgomery jumped to the rotation. Chavez only came in and pitched to the tune of a 1.15 ERA in 32 games, and was absolutely lights out in those appearances.
Just looking at some peripherals, Chavez posted a 0.795 WHIP, 6.0 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 1.2 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 8.4 K/BB. These are all either far and away the best marks of his career, or dang close to it.
Therein lies the issue…
Chavez posted career numbers for the Cubs in the second half, and numbers that are All Star worthy. He was almost untouchable, which won a lot of Cubs fans over and for those who were on the fence with his statement of, “If I’m not wearing this next year –points to Cubs logo on shirt– I’m done.”
It seemed almost like a no-brainer. He wanted to be a Cub in 2019, and he shouldn’t come with that big of a price tag. A nice, team friendly deal of like $4 to $5 million would bring him back and secure a big role in the 2019 Cubs pen. But news broke yesterday that Chavez had re-signed with the Texas Rangers, the team who traded him to the Cubs, on a two-year deal worth $8 million.
While a lot of Cubsnation were upset over the news of Chavez going back to Texas, this was most likely the absolute best thing to happen. Theo Epstein has made it a point to not pay for past production, and half a season of success screams that any offer to Chavez would be paying for 32 games instead of measuring it against the other 10.5 years of his career. In fact, a lot of our impression of Chavez was built over just a little more than two months.
Chavez has a very long resume which suggests he’s very much an average at absolute best pitcher, but more likely a below average type of guy. He was thrown into the fire in Chicago, by necessity, and he delivered – but 10 plus years show that this performance will be very tough to replicate. After all, this is a guy that owns a career 4.45 ERA, 4.31 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 110 ERA-, and a 1.348 WHIP.
Now yes, Chavez has been a guy that has bounced between starting and relieving. He has thrown 398 innings as a starter and another 440 innings as a reliever. In starts, he has a 4.45 ERA and a 1.364 WHIP. In relief roles he has a 4.44 ERA and a 1.334 WHIP. While he looks like a tad better pitcher in relief, as he was for the Cubs, and Texas to a degree, he has given up 41 more hits in the 42 more innings as a reliever. His 2018 ERA was almost a full run lower than his lowest ERA ever (3.45), and this is a guy that in 11 seasons has had an ERA under 4.00 only three times in his career, including 2018.
We are also talking about a pitcher, who, while has hung around the Majors since 2008, has been rather mediocre and is entering his age 36 season. With as much money that is tied up with other pitchers, and with five guys that will be in their age 35 season in 2019, how could the Cubs gamble on a multi-year deal for yet another 35 and older pitcher? Especially one that we already know who he is?
The Cubs will be over the Luxury Tax in 2019, and seemingly already passed the $206 million mark, an $8 million deal would look closer to a $6 million per season deal for the Cubs. That $6 million could, and should be used to find younger talent which can stretch the window, not shorten it. Signing Chavez to a two-year deal will more than likely cause the Cubs to look for additional help at the deadline, costing yet another younger player in trade. Perhaps they will need to do this anyway? But, there are tons of relievers available. Some younger guys like Kelvin Herrera who wants to sign a multi-year deal. There are also guys like Zach Britton who can sing a shorter deal to prove that he’s healthy. Either of those moves strengthens the pen from the top down, making them even stronger than last season, where they finished second in baseball with a 3.35 ERA.
Pushing Morrow, Pedro Strop, and Carl Edwards Jr.further down the totem pole is a much better 6th and 7th inning solution than signing a 35-year-old pitcher with a rather unimpressive past to fill in either of those innings.
Theo did the safest thing possible for the Cubs organization. Thanked Chavez for the exceptional job he did, and wished him luck in his future endeavors. This is what us fans should do as well.
