Ok, ok, ok… enough with the sky is falling, the Chicago Cubs aren’t re-signing a single player negativity. There’s a mutha friggin real baseball game scheduled for tomorrow! (this is written on Wednesday in case you see it tomorrow or Friday or next week or three years from now). While there is some worry, we can compartmentalize that to focus on the good here, and there is still a lot of good in Chicago. So, not only do I think the Cubs will still be in the thick of things, there are at least three Cubs that will impress you in 2021.
First, here is the Cubs 26-man roster as it currently stands (not yet official and this will likely change quite a bit in the first month, then of course as injuries happen):
- Kyle Hendricks, RHP
- Zach Davies, RHP
- Jake Arrieta, RHP
- Adbert Alzolay, RHP
- Trevor Williams, RHP
- Craig Kimbrel, RHP
- Brandon Workman, RHP
- Ryan Tepera, RHP
- Dan Winkler, RHP
- Andrew Chafin, LHP
- Alec Mills, RHP
- Jason Adam, RHP
- Rex Brothers, LHP
- Dillon Maples, RHP
- Willson Contreras, C
- Austin Romine, C/PJ Higgins, C (Romine has been injured, there is thought that Tony Wolters will sign as a Cub)
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B
- David Bote, 2B
- Kris Bryant, 3B
- Javier Baez, SS
- Eric Sogard, IF
- Matt Duffy, IF
- Ian Happ, CF
- Joc Pederson, LF
- Jason Heyward, RF
- Jake Marisnick, OF
From my accounts, there are nine players that are new to the big league team (including both backup catchers) in 2021. While that might not seem like a giant turnover, it is roughly 35% of the roster. Sometimes turnover can be bad for a team, personally, I think this can be good.
You have mainstays like Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Heyward, and Contreras that having new guys and new ideas and new approaches could help them. Success breeds complacency and it is easier to fall into complacency when you have familiar faces around you. While none of the additions will push any of the core players for their jobs, guys like Pederson can push those others to a different level just by being in the clubhouse.
Guys like Pederson, Duffy, and Williams all have something extra to play for. Whether it be a new contract or just playing to keep an MLB job. That kind of urgency rubs off, and when the club has core players also playing for a contract, it could mean a great deal of success for this 2021 Cubs ballclub.
Rex Brothers
Brothers had a 8.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in three games with the Cubs in 2020. I’ll again preach, let’s not hold 2020 stats to too much esteem, especially not someone that only threw 3.1 innings. While traditional stats don’t look kindly on Brothers in 2020, he did post a 2.25 xFIP which suggests he was a slight victim of bad luck last year.
Brothers has spent much of his career in Colorado, where they don’t treat pitching too kindly. The best year of his career, by far, was his 2013 season where he posted a 1.74 ERA, 3.49 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP in 72 appearances. He wasn’t just a LOOGY either, Brothers averaged nearly four hitters per appearance that season (281 batters faced).
In 8.2 IP in spring, Brothers didn’t give up a run and only allowed four baserunners (3 hits, 1 walk). What was once a long shot to make the club, Brothers’ performance earned his spot. You have to feel good for a guy that beat odds to earn his spot and this interaction with David Ross ( <– subscription required) makes me pull for a guy like Rex.
“I asked him if he’d looked at getting a place in Chicago,” David Ross said, “if he knew where he was going to live.”
Brothers, a non-roster invitee who was looked at as a long shot to make the roster at the start of the spring, was still locked in after just getting off the mound. He gave his manager a quizzical look and answered with a quick, “No, why?”
“I was like, ‘Well, you might want to start looking.’ And he was like, ‘Really?’” Ross said. “And he just lit up. It was fun for me, kind of caught him off guard.”
Sahadev Sharma, The Athletic Subscription required and recommended
After a disappointing 2020, and mostly disappointing last three or so years, the Cubs identified something in Brothers mechanics. So far (of course this is only using Spring results) those changes have improved Brothers command, which led to only one walk in Arizona. Over his career Brothers has a 5.29 BB/9 rate, and since the 2014 season has had a 6.1 BB/9 mark.
If Brothers really has eliminated that walk-bug, he has a mid-90s fastball (that scratches 97+ at times) and a devastating swing-and-miss breaking ball that works on both lefty and righty hitters. If he really has fixed that walk rate, Brothers just might be a cheat code unlocked.
He is certainly primed for a big 2021.
David Bote
We have known Bote for a while now, and we have raved about his knack for the dramatic. Hitting that huge “ultimate slam” in the 2018 season really put him on the map. But it seemed that his ability to come through in clutch situations continued to follow him, and it was evident in 2020 when he collected a team high 29 RBI while only playing in 45 of 60 games.
Now, foolishly there have been some fans that have called for Bote to start over Bryant because of his ability to drive in runs. First, they aren’t the same thing. Bryant is a much better ballplayer and a much more dangerous hitter. Pitchers plan to attack the Cubs by planning around Kris Bryant, they don’t plan around David Bote. Second, there really is no such thing as a clutch hitter. When you pull up anyone’s career stats, almost always (like seriously always) their performance in regular conditions mirror their performance in RBI or clutch situations.
Regardless, his ability to come through in certain spots tells me more about what kind of hitter he is in all conditions.
Bote has a .240/.338/.415 slash line across parts of three seasons. He has just north of 700 plate appearances, and at this point we should have an idea of what he is. However, perhaps we don’t just yet? Bote had made some subtle adjustments to his swing. He already strikes the ball incredibly hard. In his three seasons, he averages a 91.4 MPH exit velocity, which is higher than every other Cubs player besides Pederson (also 91.4 MPH) by almost a full two miles per hour.
Now, you might blow off any of the new aged voodoo against the grain mumbo jumbo hitting gurus preach. But of all the newer things tracked by Statcast, exit velocity should be the easiest concept for anyone to understand and correlate to being good at baseball. If you hit a ball hard, it has a better chance of finding green.
Bote has done quite a bit of work to fine-tune his pitch selection and has worked on mechanics. This should lead to a higher contact rate. As is, he’s improved both his chase rate and contact rate over his career and these adjustments should point to even more success.
But additionally, Bote was a huge victim of bad luck in 2020. The MLB average BABIP is right around .300. In 2020, Bote’s BABIP was well under, sitting at .228 and was 95 points under his previous career mark. So whether it was defensive positioning or he hit more batted balls at a defender or if some earlier duck snorts that fell earlier in his career didn’t in 2020, he should find more green in 2021. If you’re getting solid defense from him at second, he’s finding more green, and still has the ability to drive the ball (not necessarily suggesting homers) then we should expect a very good season from him in 2021.
Jake Arrieta
We don’t know what would have been if the Cubs stuck with Jake over Yu Darvish back in 2018. We do know that Darvish became a Cy Young candidate, while Jake continued to see a reduction in velocity, health issues, and a decrease in performance. He is back with the Cubs, in a familiar place, with people that have a successful book on how to fix his mechanics.
This isn’t to say that the Phillies weren’t capable of tapping into the max-potential of Arrieta, they were. But sometimes some teams and practices tend to work better with certain individual players. After Arrieta’s spring, that just might be the case with him and Chicago.
Arrieta and the Cubs were able to identify several mechanical issues and have been working to fix them. The most satisfying part of this work is that we have seen more of that old Arrieta “slutter” than he’s thrown in recent years. In 2014 and 15, that pitch was the hardest pitch to hit in baseball. In 2016, he still yielded it, but after the first month and a half of the season it wasn’t as successful. He would then tuck that pitch away and rely more on a hard slider than the slutter.
If that pitch is back and if Jake can fine-tune some mechanics that slipped away, he will be a very nice addition to the rotation. I’m not suggesting 2015 Arrieta, I’m not even suggesting 2016 Arrieta. But I am suggesting that a revamped Arrieta in 2021 will be an upgrade. Add the expectation that starting pitchers will throw less innings, and hitters won’t likely get that third at bat (especially early in the season) against Arrieta and he should be primed to be huge.
Yes, reduced innings from your starters will put more pressure on the Cubs bullpen, and yes that could expose the Cubs a bit. But I am in the belief that the pen won’t be as bad as what we once thought. There are a lot of guys that the *pitch lab* has been working overdrive on and really a group of relievers that have several good tools. A lot of them need to work their command, and if that happens protecting wins will become easier and easier.
Honorable mention
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a ton out of Adbert Alzolay. He’s a dude that has done everything right over the past two-plus seasons and has put himself in a position to succeed. He’s been picking the brains of nearly every veteran or anyone willing to provide advice and insight.
Trevor Williams has also been working on a his slider, using a different grip, which has given it a different shape. From reports from Arizona, it has hidden and played off the fastball extremely well. Not only did he post a 1.32 ERA this spring, but more importantly he only allowed a single walk while allowing less than a baserunner per inning. For a guy that has allowed an average of 13 baserunners a start, this is a promising look.
I know fans will roll their eyes at this one, but Craig Kimbrel is another one to expect big things from in 2021. The future Hall of Fame closer may not bounce back to his Atlanta-like days, but he and the Cubs have worked hard on mechanics (which is what he was working on in Spring) and while the results weren’t there in Arizona, that wasn’t the main focus.
Finally, David Ross. Yes, I realize he isn’t a player but he will be tested a lot in 2021. Not only is there still a little thing called COVID still lingering, and luckily the Cubs were the only team without a case in 2020, but managing with a pandemic still around is a test in itself. Sure, the players and team are protected some from it, but MLB has strict rules around vaccinations and player’s ability to be out and about. Eric Sogard (mostly his wife) has already spoken out against the way things will be handled. There’s also a very real possibility of in-season trades of high-profile Cubs players. Finally, 2021 will likely see more player injuries – especially to pitchers – and pulling the strings on who to turn to and when will be more important than ever. With Ross’s relative inexperience, having a short 2020 might have been a blessing in disguise for him. It allowed him to gain that experience his naysayers pointed out, and gave him the confidence that he absolutely could steer this ship.
